Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Remember the "game changing" vitamin D study being touted around a few days ago claiming 60% reduction in deaths...



Oops.

Moral: if it's too good to be true, it's probably not true.

 

[shemnel]

The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.

Do you think hospitalisation can still surge with the same intensity though, given 95% of over 70s have had one jab?

My understanding is even one jab brings down severity of illness quite some

 

[Healdplace]

The age range of the 315 England deaths is on trend today again.


0 - 19 (1) 0.3%

20 - 39 (3) 0.9%

40 - 59 (27) 8.6%

60 - 79 (137) 43.5%

80 PLUS (147) 46.7%


Much the same pattern with again the over 80s now well under 50% and very close to the next oldest age group and the under 60s again near 10%.

The over 80s have been under 50% now very steadily and it is without doubt a notable change.

Think it is hard not to call this vaccine related now given its consistency.

Especially given that we know most care homes are now vaccinated and in places where we have daily data (eg N Ireland) the number of outbreaks there has been dropping very fast in past weeks.

The low numbers of out of hospital death adds on in England support the same conclusion.

A month ago care homes were a huge factor in the England deaths.

 

[Ban-jani]

The age range of the 315 England deaths is on trend today again.


0 - 19 (1) 0.3%

20 - 39 (3) 0.9%

40 - 59 (27) 8.6%

60 - 79 (137) 43.5%

80 PLUS (147) 46.7%


Much the same pattern with again the over 80s now well uder 50% and very close to the next okdest age group and the under 60s again near 10%.

46.7% is very low.

 

[blueparrot]

I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?

Don’t know how it could be done, sure there must be a way though. Was speaking to my daughter yesterday and all the staff in her hospital were vaccinated in December, then in the next couple of weeks there were a couple of positive cases but since then none that she knows of. What ‘s hard to know though if that’s the vaccine working (they all had pfizer) which it will be. How would you then know if it’s preventing transmission while still locked down.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Do you think hospitalisation can still surge with the same intensity though, given 95% of over 70s have had one jab?

My understanding is even one jab brings down severity of illness quite some

I posted earlier that the ultra high uptake of vaccines is extremely good news in that respect. The data on severity of illness from the clinical trials is very good, but based on very small numbers (zero vs 10 severe for the AZ vaccine on active vs placebo). So we're not yet sure just how good these vaccines will be. The emerging Israeli data is looking extremely good, but still early. And Israel has exclusively used Pfizer.

Plus remember that the median age for ICU is only 60.

Plus the effects of long Covid and just a huge number of people sick.

So I agree things are looking positive, and I'm personally very optimistic, but there are good reasons to remain cautious in how we open up.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Liverpool and Cheshire had the highest NW deaths today.

That would seem to imply it’s still related to their tier 2 nonsense throughout December.

 

[Healdplace]

46.7% is very low.

It never has been consistently.

Last time it was this low is in Early Autumn with deaths around 80 - 100 a day in England.

So it is at that level with deaths 3 times as many suggesting more than just statistics involved. And a genuine drop off of maybe around 30/40% in that age range.

Though I may well not understand maths enough for that statement to be true and if it is gibberish please feel free to say so!

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

A 13 year old with no underlying conditions. Petrifying.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

5 deaths - was 9 last week

313 cases - was 407 last week

13.1% positivity - was 16.2% last week

% levels falling all over the UK is another significant fact being missed by many just focusing on case numbers

We are doing many many more tests these days

7 day rolling case total 2072 - up from 2041 yesterday - was 2393 last week.

Numbers are stalling but there is less further down to go when you are 300 than 3000.

Care home outbreaks 47 - down from 49 yesterday - was 78 last Friday and 98 week before.

This is the big indicator that the vaccines are working in that cases and deaths have fallen by more than half in two weeks

403 Patients - down from 418 yesterday and 488 last week.

41 Ventilated - down from 42 yesterday and 51 last week.

Hospital numbers here falling much like the other nations.

And they ARE being ultra cautious in NI having already extended the lockdown here to 1 April.