Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
It never has been consistently.

Last time it was this low is in Early Autumn with deaths around 80 - 100 a day in England.

So it is at that level with deaths 3 times as many suggesting more than just statistics involved. And a genuine drop off of maybe around 30/40% in that age range.

Though I may well not understand maths enough for that statement to be true and if it is gibberish please feel free to say so!
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Here's the data back to last July. You can see how much more variable it is when total numbers are lower, and also how consistent the trend down since vaccinations started is.

Will be interesting to see where this goes as the 50-80 year old vaccinations kick in. Should rebound, I think.

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So the total UK deaths today with only out of hospital England to come is 367. Lowest weekday total this year.

Here are the last 5 week totals wk to wk:


1165 v 865 v 659 v 508 v 367

Pretty impressive fall in one month in mid winter.

The numbers it has dropped each week are bound to reduce but even that trend is pretty good.

A 141 fall this week v 151 last week v 206 week before and 300 week before that - percentage wise that is actually UP a little this week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Here's the data back to last July. You can see how much more variable it is when total numbers are lower, and also how consistent the trend down since vaccinations started is.

Will be interesting to see where this goes as the 50-80 year old vaccinations kick in. Should rebound, I think.

View attachment 10834
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There will still be elderly people dying 'with' Covid but not necessarily because of it I would think. Anyone who has tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death will be counted as a Covid related death even if really it was caused by another illness.

Edit: my point is that over time the most elderly will make up a much higher proportion of a much smaller number of overall deaths for the reasons I have posted above (it wasn't very clear in my first attempt).
 
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Cases for the three nations today without England and for past 4 weeks:

5169 v 2370 v 1800 v 1845 v 1731 today

Huge falls in cases once the pot Christmas/New Year rise was over and a very obvious plateau in the past fortnight

Almost exactly what we see in the same period in London and the South and to a lesser degree in Greater Manchester
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
There will still be elderly people dying 'with' Covid but not necessarily because of it I would think. Anyone who has tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death will be counted as a Covid related death even if really it was caused by another illness.
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I doubt the effect is big enough to be detectable, and previous numbers suggest there are likely more missed by this measure than inaccurately ascribed to COVID. The chance of an elderly person dying in a given month is small.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I doubt the effect is big enough to be detectable, and previous numbers suggest there are likely more missed by this measure than inaccurately ascribed to COVID. The chance of an elderly person dying in a given month is small.
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The point I was clumsily trying to make (see my edit) was that once more or less all of the adult population has been vaccinated then the most elderly groups will make up more or less all of a far lower number of deaths so they will have increased proportionally even more than at any point so far.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
The point I was clumsily trying to make (see my edit) was that once more or less all of the adult population has been vaccinated then the most elderly groups will make up more or less all of a far lower number of deaths so they will have increased proportionally even more than at any point so far.
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I guess it would depend on whether the vaccine is relatively more efficacious in younger than older people. That seems to be the expectation, so I would expect it'll bounce back up to higher levels than seen previously. Of course if uptake is lower in younger people the opposite could be the case.

But hopefully overall numbers will be so small that measuring the ratio won't be meaningful.
 
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