Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

So what's everyone's views on where we are up to now?
Lots of people seem to think we will get in another lockdown Sept / Oct despite the mass vaccination programme.

Too many unknowns:

• The extent of vaccination
• Whether we vaccinate children
• When will the next generation of vaccines be available, and how effective will they be
• What variants are circulating and what there characteristics are - to take off they have to be more contagious than the Delta variant, or have more escape mutations, which effectively makes them more contagious.
• How effective are all the Chinese vaccines? Is it possible for example that the Delta variant, or the Epsilon variant which will surely follow some time is going to break China. If it does there;s 1.5 billion himan hosts in which more variants can form.
• And linked to that last point, what do China and the USA do when they have finished their domestic vaccination? If their vaccines are effective, then huge vaccine capacity will come online. Our vaccination is held back because of supply.

I think most likely we get on top of this when we have effective boosters which I hope will be tailored to the latest variants and not just a 3rd jab of what we have had.

 

[Manc in London]

We were discussing the formation of clusters and now you're talking about national groups, and comparing Harrow to parts of Bolton/Blackburn. Chalk and cheese and there most likely is your answer.

I was comparing Indian groups with others comparable groups. You were incorrect about families of Indian background (as an ethno-national group) have high levels of deprivation. They do not in comparison to others.

Harrow has a high concentration of Indian families. Why would that be irrelevant? Why are the rates not so high there? That is the point I was making. Maybe I was too subtle. It's too simplistic to say 'where Indian families are, there are high numbers of cases'. It's factually incorrect.

 

[Marvin]

The reason for lockdowns is to reduce transmission when cases reach the level that hospitalisations and deaths are so high that the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed. The hope with vaccines is that the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths has been weakened to the point where the NHS is in no danger even if infections are as high as they were before. In that scenario, there would be no real justification for a further lockdown. We will know more about how the vaccines have affected the linkage in the next few weeks but the current data looks good.

This is the Battle of the Somme with a fixed line of trenches. This is a mobile evolving virus. We don't know how effective our immunity if going to be in the Autumn. This variant is going to sweep Europe and the USA and what is it going to spin off? And at the same time there are vaccine trials under way the first of which are scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Unknowns.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Too many unknowns:

• The extent of vaccination
• Whether we vaccinate children
• When will the next generation of vaccines be available, and how effective will they be
• What variants are circulating and what there characteristics are - to take off they have to be more contagious than the Delta variant, or have more escape mutations, which effectively makes them more contagious.
• How effective are all the Chinese vaccines? Is it possible for example that the Delta variant, or the Epsilon variant which will surely follow some time is going to break China. If it does there;s 1.5 billion himan hosts in which more variants can form.
• And linked to that last point, what do China and the USA do when they have finished their domestic vaccination? If their vaccines are effective, then huge vaccine capacity will come online. Our vaccination is held back because of supply.

I think most likely we get on top of this when we have effective boosters which I hope will be tailored to the latest variants and not just a 3rd jab of what we have had.

If China is proved to be the place where this started, will damages be pursued?
Another cold war ensues?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

So what's everyone's views on where we are up to now?
Lots of people seem to think we will get in another lockdown Sept / Oct despite the mass vaccination programme.

we didn't even get a lockdown in September/October last year without a vaccine. There'll be riots before that gets through.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

we didn't even get a lockdown in September/October last year without a vaccine. There'll be riots before that gets through.

Yes there have been a lot of lies and cover ups
Can''t wait for the review.

 

[Marvin]

I was comparing Indian groups with others comparable groups. You were incorrect about families of Indian background (as an ethno-national group) have high levels of deprivation. They do not in comparison to others.

Harrow has a high concentration of Indian families. Why would that be irrelevant? Why are the rates not so high there? That is the point I was making. Maybe I was too subtle. It's too simplistic to say 'where Indian families are, there are high numbers of cases'. It's factually incorrect.

It's not irrelevant. But deprivation matters. Forming an initial that is self-sustaining is going to depend on the nature of the community that carriers return to. Bolton and Harrow are quite different at least my perceptions of them are.

You're the poverty expert with the economics degree. We have the empirical evidence, you interpret it.

It's not factually incorrect to say that this wave was triggered by travel from the Indian sub-continent hence the argument with Government ministers about whether they shut down travel soon enough. Of course now the epidemic progresses beyond the initial clusters and its character changes.

 

[Gremlin]

This is the Battle of the Somme with a fixed line of trenches. This is a mobile evolving virus. We don't know how effective our immunity if going to be in the Autumn. This variant is going to sweep Europe and the USA and what is it going to spin off? And at the same time there are vaccine trials under way the first of which are scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Unknowns.

Which is why they are already planning for booster vaccinations in Autumn to try and deal with variants (though I have no idea which variants they target - may be a bit of educated guesswork like they do with seasonal flu vaccinations)

 

[Marvin]

Which is why they are already planning for booster vaccinations in Autumn to try and deal with variants (though I have no idea which variants they target - may be a bit of educated guesswork like they do with seasonal flu vaccinations)

Some of the vaccines in trial are based on the SA variant. There's a mixture. Including whole virus vaccines which might be less affected by spike mutations. Moderna's variant vaccine (in trial) is based on the SA variant. I think GSK also have a vaccine candidate in trial and I think they have more than one version, one Wuhan, one SA. Hard to keep up. ANd there's not much news

 

[grunge]

If China is proved to be the place where this started, will damages be pursued?
Another cold war ensues?

If it was a lab leak there could be something to base claims on, other than that doubtful id say, political tensions are high as it is with the US/China trade war going on. and to be honest you could ask the same about the variants. Kent Variant took over the world and we did very little to stop it. will we be pursued for damages?

 

[BLUEMATT23]

If it was a lab leak there could be something to base claims on, other than that doubtful id say, political tensions are high as it is with the US/China trade war going on. and to be honest you could ask the same about the variants. Kent Variant took over the world and we did very little to stop it. will we be pursued for damages?

Well potentially yes, the goverment here could get sued too. Bring it on.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Well potentially yes, the goverment here could get sued too. Bring it on.

Oh great, more tax. Whilst Winnie the Pooh causes international chaos and walks away unscathed.

 

[Marvin]

Here's some data to explain.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:

• 34 (47%) were unvaccinated
• 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
• 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

Is the data surprising or would you expect this?

I would expect that elderly people would still be the most vulnerable even if vaccinated. A moderate illness could be fatal for someone who is vulnerable.

The true comparison to make is what is the difference between an equivalent group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Best to think about this because this will come up. You wait until people absorb this data and say "The majoirty of people who are dying of COvid-19 have been vaccinated!"

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Here's some data to explain.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:

• 34 (47%) were unvaccinated
• 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
• 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

Is the data surprising or would you expect this?

I would expect that elderly people would still be the most vulnerable even if vaccinated. A moderate illness could be fatal for someone who is vulnerable.

The true comparison to make is what is the difference between an equivalent group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Best to think about this because this will come up. You wait until people absorb this data and say "The majoirty of people who are dying of COvid-19 have been vaccinated!"

Anyone with cognitive function realises vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable was primarily to take the edge of the numbers.

The key is getting younger generations vaccinated so the spread is reduced sufficiently that there's a large drop-off in cases in the elderly and vulnerable. It's a two pronged safety measure.

 

[Healdplace]

‘Highest infection rate in Western Europe.’ BBC website.

’2nd lowest positivity rate in Western Europe.’ Not anywhere on the BBC website.

That's because for some reason England - unlike Scotland, Wales and N Ireland make it almost impossible to work out rather then post it daily. So journalists never bother - assuming it is irrelevant or too much like hard work.

 

[Healdplace]

and as always I’m sure it will move from North to South and London will have one of the highest rates - that’s what has always happened.

London is already up from around 500 to 1200 cases a day in the past couple of weeks. It is not climbing as fast as the South West or the North East - both of which have escalated very fast in the past 10 days or so,

But this has not been just a NW problem for a week or so now and it may well end up being the NW lower than the rest fairly soon.

 

[Healdplace]

That stat 26 deaths post vaccination sounds shocking. But when you factor it in as a percentage of cases in the same period it will actually be much lower than the third the raw data implies because far less are ending up in hospital from this wave than the last one and in pre vaccination circumstance that 26 would likely have been 526. Maybe even more.

Once you see that truth then your perception of what the number 26 tells us changes.

Stats can so easily mislead uinintentionally.

The latest data out today again confirms both vaccines protect against even going into hospital to a much better degree than we had feared a few weeks ago with Delta. They mitigate severity in the vast majority of cases. But if you have underlying conditions pretty much anything might tip that over the edge. Even a bad cold could. But that does not mean colds are deadly diseases.

The reality is that most people going into hospital now are young compared with the exact opposite in the last wave.

Only one thing explains that huge disparity. The vaccinations that skew heavily to giving the most protection to those who have already had them and so are age related.

Covid has not suddenly become a disease that mostly impacts teenagers and 20 somethings. It is doing so because they are the only targets it can now easily reach. But sadly it will still always also find those with weakened immune systems too, Vaccines are not magic. They are a great protection but not an invulnerability shield.

 

[Gremlin]

Yesterday there were 11,000 new cases, and 7-day average hospitalisations/deaths were 200/11. The last time there were 11,000 daily cases on a rising curve (I don't think the fall from the Jan peak is a fair comparison as there will be a lot of lagging hospitalisations/deaths from the peak) which was 30 Sep last year the 7 day averages for hospitalisations/deaths were about 500/60. Hence, it looks like a significant reduction (about a third of the hospitalisations and a fifth of the deaths) which is almost certainly due to the vaccination programme. Even if a third wave was as big as the last it wouldn't put anything like the same pressure on the NHS as before and hence might be considered tolerable enough to allow the rest of society to get back to normal.

 

[Healdplace]

I agree Gremlin. As I have noted many times in recent weeks this wave is nothing like the one in January and all the data shows why. The vaccines have changed the demographics. Lots of data proves that. It is spreading in younger, fitter people for whom Covid is a modest illness at worst usually. So much so they have had to redefine the symptoms because too many young people catching it were not sure it was Covid because it felt too minor an illness. Akin to a heavy cold.

If we reach the 60,000 cases we had in January it is now very clear there will be nothing like the 39,000 people in hospital and 4000 people on ventilators and 1000 a day dying at the peak.

Numbers will go up from now in all those measures - and, yes, some will sadly die in greter numbers than right now. For a few weeks as the wave peaks and falls. But this will prove to be the smallest of all the Covid waves in the UK and quite possibly the last one to earn the name wave if things go well across the world in the vaccination for all programme. And we do not get a worse variant than Delta that we stupidly allow to walk in and colonise the UK before we see it coming and it turns out to be vaccine evasive.

Hence the urgency in vaccinating everywhere else not just the UK We are not going to sleep easy until that occurs.

 

[Gremlin]

I agree Gremlin. As I have noted many times in recent weeks this wave is nothing like the one in January and all the data shows why. The vaccines have changed the demographics. Lots of data proves that. It is spreading in younger, fitter people for whom Covid is a modest illness at worst usually. So much so they have had to redefine the symptoms because too many young people catching it were not sure it was Covid because it felt too minor an illness. Akin to a heavy cold.

Yup - and hidden in the data is the anecdotal evidence from the NHS that those that do end up in hospital this time round have been less sick and been discharged earlier