Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Wonder if our in the know poster ref the AZ vaccine poster knows anything about the study that has been carried out on any change to transmission on those vaccinated with it and the Pfizer vaccine.

The Telegraph claim to have seen the data compiled from NHS staff who were vaccinated as it has been previewed to the PM but will not be published for a few days.

They claim it shows both vaccines significantly cut infectivity of those who have had it even after just one dose.

Are we to assume this is not being made up by the paper?

I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?

 

[Healdplace]

Those graphs are fascinating. About the same degree encouraging and discouraging.

But the hospital data is still on the side of encouraging so on balance let us hope.

Do you know if prevalence of specific variants regionally might be a factor as NW and Midlands still seem to be the main reason we have stalled numbers.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It's the slowing of hospitalisation that should be the focus, and that's where the good news lies.

The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.

 

[Healdplace]

I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?

I could not read it either for the details why I hoped our 'mole' from AZ in here might know more.

Though likely unable to share due to confidentiality which is perfectly understandable.

 

[Healdplace]

The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.

Yes without doubt the pressure to open up too fast is the biggest concern we have as it risks losing all the recent gains but hopefully it looks like that penny has dropped in all 4 UK Nations.

 

[unicorn]

The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.

Cases among under-40 (who won't be vaccinated before May-June, will presumably lead to lower rates of hospitalisation though I acknowledge Long Covid can be devastating even if it doesn't need a hospital stay at the time.

1,000 cases a day seems reasonable to me too; I just fear how long it'll take to get there with schools open and more people at work than there were in Lockdown 1.

 

[Healdplace]

315 England hospital deaths - was 407 last Friday.

Worryingly though 64 from North West - over 20% on a Friday is a concern.

Only the Midlands higher at 66.

As I noted above NW and Midlands are the problem in England right now and may be why we have stalled.

Is it new variants that are the issue?

 

[Cityfan]

I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?

I'm guessing they are using positivity as a proxy for infectivity and possibly doing regular swabbing on a cohort possibly of health care workers.

 

[Healdplace]

Liverpool and Cheshire had the highest NW deaths today.

 

[hammocity]

Read a couple of weeks ago that a French study suggested if a person has had Covid and then the AZ first dose it acts as a booster much like the normal second dose.

Had mine this morning, no problems at all and for those few who may have a fear of needles please rest assured there is nothing to fret about. I know phobias are terrible to overcome (mine's thunder and lightning on a golf course, I go into a huge panic and my brain freezes) but there's plenty of advice online on how to beat the fear. It's one small pinch of the skin that will hopefully stop you catching Covid opposed to getting the disease and being seriously ill and hospitalised with all manner of equipment possibly keeping you alive.