Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Ayrshire I have seen some comments on line (so no idea if true) that yesterdays big numbers (1317) had a high backlog catch up - though nothing was actually stated in the report which it usually is. So I suspect they are just suspicious of the data as it looked odd.

The postivity is well down today anyway so that is the best news of all. Along with the week to week fall in patiwnt data.

If the NW hospital numbers start to fall in coming days we know we are onto something as Scotland and the North West have followed quite similar paths so both occurring at once would reinforce the view on the other.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 1 last week

178 cases - was 121 last week

7.5% positivity - was 6.0% last week

906 weekly cases - was 847 yesterday & 636 last week (clear Delta variant uptick here now too)

3 care home outbreaks - was 3 yesterday & 2 last week

16 patients - same as yesterday - was 18 last week

0 ventilated - was 0 yesterday & last week.


AGE RANGE OF THE 906 WEEKLY CASES

0 - 19 (305) 33.7%

20 - 39 (387) 42.7%

40 - 59 (171) 18.9%

60 - 79 (39) 4.3%

80 PLUS (4) 0.4%


THERE IS EVIDENCE HERE AS THE PHE STUDY A COUPLE OF PAGES BACK NOTED FOR ENGLAND.

Fewer under 40s are catching it (down from just over 80% a week ago to 76.4%.

And more over 60 are but in tiny numbers (up from 3.6%to 4.7%) Happily all of that not in the over 80s.

The biggest rise has been on the 40 - 59 ages edging upwards. But again not dramatically.


The decrease in cases seems to be because fewer younger people are now catching it.

That is actually very positive news for the course of the wave if it continues. As if their numbers fall so will case numbers basically as they are far and away the most likely to be catching it right now.

Provided that we see no big jump in numbers of the over 40s to compensate that is. Which we hopefully ought not to do.

 

[Healdplace]

So 11 deaths so far with out of England hospital to come. It was 10 last week. Which became 17 on all settings.

And 1291 cases for the three nations with England to come - was 1343 last week - but that involved the estimted 100/150 cases added by backlog to Scotland last week),

So numbers are up but mostly because of the 100 extra from Wales and N Ireland now they are in the early phase of Delta arriving at their door.

So numbers are really pretty flat week to week. Which is not bad news.

 

[True_Blue69]

Don’t forget that in this country at least, a 90 year old who died with stage 4 lung cancer, Alzheimer’s and diabetes whose just had a cardiac arrest and a stroke and was double jabbed, but tested ’positive’ is a ‘Covid death‘ and a death after 2 vaccinations.
If you wanted to prolong a pandemic and prolong people’s fears, we are demonstrating to the rest of the world just how to go about it…..

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Not to mention how all of a sudden it impacts kids now they’re the only not vaccinated. Odd how it’s only in the UK though. You couldn’t make it up.

 

[grunge]

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Not to mention how all of a sudden it impacts kids now they’re the only not vaccinated. Odd how it’s only in the UK though. You couldn’t make it up.

Its not just this country. most go with positive test + x number of days for there fast reaction figures.

The UK then has the "on death certificate" numbers as well which other countries don't seem to do. this is the figure to really look at as its the real figure but has a good few week lag time. the 1st one is for fast reactions.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

950 cases in Scotland

Just 1 of those cases are in people aged 65+!!!

115 aged 45-64

363 aged 25-44
468 aged 0-24 (Inclusive of 193 aged 0-14)

***************

2x deaths

One aged 75-84
The other aged 45-64

***************

19k first doses
19k second doses, really low figures and probably the only disappointing news figures wise from today in Scotland.

I suspect at around 10 minutes to 10 tonight our wee country will be on a high again with the best news of the day ;-)

 

[Healdplace]

Zoë COVID study shows rates slowing down for the last few days which is good news. The key is in the power of even partial vaccination and the age effects - with signs that the youth epidemic is now running out of steam. All good news although I’m sure a few graphs in a press conference with altered Y axises could paint a completely different story….

Yes, I posted a Zoe update earlier this aftermoon and the increases have been slowing for about a week / 10 days now. Which is promising I agree

 

[Chappie]

950 cases in Scotland

Just 1 of those cases are in people aged 65+!!!

115 aged 45-64

363 aged 25-44
468 aged 0-24 (Inclusive of 193 aged 0-14)

***************

2x deaths

One aged 75-84
The other aged 45-64

***************

19k first doses
19k second doses, really low figures and probably the only disappointing news figures wise from today in Scotland.

I suspect at around 10 minutes to 10 tonight our wee country will be on a high again with the best news of the day ;-)

Not according to Zoe app, who have England goals rising dramatically from tonight

 

[Healdplace]

Not according to Zoe app, who have England goals rising dramatically from tonight

Well even 2 would be a doubling so not too hard. Stats are easy to manipulate!

City players have scored more than England so far.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

950 cases in Scotland

Just 1 of those cases are in people aged 65+!!!

115 aged 45-64

363 aged 25-44
468 aged 0-24 (Inclusive of 193 aged 0-14)

***************

2x deaths

One aged 75-84
The other aged 45-64

***************

19k first doses
19k second doses, really low figures and probably the only disappointing news figures wise from today in Scotland.

I suspect at around 10 minutes to 10 tonight our wee country will be on a high again with the best news of the day ;-)

Vaccination figures low because every fucker is in London acting like twats!

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Hmm

 

[Healdplace]

10, 476 cases - down 531 was 8125 last Friday

11 all settings deaths was 17 last week

1, 082, 222 pillar 1 & 2 tests - 94 K more than last Friday.

 

[Manc in London]

It's not irrelevant. But deprivation matters. Forming an initial that is self-sustaining is going to depend on the nature of the community that carriers return to. Bolton and Harrow are quite different at least my perceptions of them are.

You're the poverty expert with the economics degree. We have the empirical evidence, you interpret it.

It's not factually incorrect to say that this wave was triggered by travel from the Indian sub-continent hence the argument with Government ministers about whether they shut down travel soon enough. Of course now the epidemic progresses beyond the initial clusters and its character changes.

Economics expert? That's flattering considering I graduated reading PPE. Studying three subjects makes me one of those people who 'knows a little about a few things' rather than an 'expert' on anything.

The point I am making is that the unequal spread of cases, particularly the spike in cases in the north west, cannot be fully explained by "it's Indian families simple, innit".

As I stated, it has not happened in some other places with high numbers of Indian families, or indeed concentration (London and Leicester). If a spike was going to be in any region/city, it would, on the grounds of probability (assuming it is just down to ethnicity) be Leicester and/or London. Added to this, is that thousands of travellers from India have landed in Heathrow. I also doubt deprivation in the Indian community is having a substantial impact as it has an overall lower level of deprivation, as measured by Indices of Multiple Deprivation. There surely has to be another factor at work.

It's hardly a controversial take. It's an open question.

 

[splinter]

10, 476 cases - down 531 was 8125 last Friday

11 all settings deaths was 17 last week

1, 082, 222 pillar 1 & 2 tests - 94 K more than last Friday.

We may be over the worst..maybe?

 

[BobKowalski]

Hmm

Bit of an odd one. The judgement orders AZ to deliver 50m doses by Sept otherwise it faces fines. The fines are less than the EU asked for so maybe that’s the ‘win’.

Or I’m missing something obvious...

 

[grunge]

Bit of an odd one. The judgement orders AZ to deliver 50m doses by Sept otherwise it faces fines. The fines are less than the EU asked for so maybe that’s the ‘win’.

Or I’m missing something obvious...

Court seems to have said AZ need to supply less than AZ said they could anyways. Backing up AZ in the fact that they couldn't meet the demand due to supply issues and they would do "best endeavours".

But then also said AZ couldn't prefer one contract over another which was the issue with them saying they had a deal with the UK to supply UK from the UK factory before exporting.

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton up 4 to 125 but that is down from 137 week to week. It is not exactly dropping fast now. But has stopped rising.

Manchester onky down 8 so still very high over 300 but up less week to week than yesterday.

Wigan second highest again though down 32 on yesterday.

Salford still edging up though but only edging. On its highest number but just 10 up on last week.

Six boroughs are over 100 today and two are a surprise and one who isn't another. Stockport falls again to 86. Only Rochdale and Tameside just had a handful lower than that.

However, Trafford up to 107. And Oldham up to 103 are the surprises today.

This has spread around GM but other than Manchester now nobody really up very high and nobody really accelerating anywhere. It is spread quite evenly about.

Because of these ups and downs overall GM fell by just 35 to 1306 Second highest in months behind yesterday.

North West fell by 104 to 2754 - so 35 is less than the 50 or so you would expect.But not a big deal.

Week to week North West is up 437 and GM rises week to week by just 115 of those.

This is a VERY good ratio well under the NW average.

So week to week now GM is clearly doing better than other parts of the region that are now driving numbers up.

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

PhE study on efficacy of the vaccines versus hospitalisation shows a modest reduction of this in Delta versus the older strains.

After 1 dose was 49% effective - with Delta reduced to 31%

After 2 doses was 88% effective - with Delta reduced to 80%

In other words it should stop 4 out of 5 getting sick enough to need hospital even with Delta.


This is what you have to factor into the earlier discussion about numbers with both vaccinations dying.

They will be an even smaller fraction as to the above - so you ARE going to see a few hundred double vacciated people in hospital in coming weeks. It is not a sign the vaccine is not working.

I thought the study the other day showed really high protection (70 percent plus, 90 odd for Pfizer) from hospitalisation for just a single dose- 31% protection against hospitalisation seems shockingly bad?

 

[Marvin]

Economics expert? That's flattering considering I graduated reading PPE. Studying three subjects makes me one of those people who 'knows a little about a few things' rather than an 'expert' on anything.

The point I am making is that the unequal spread of cases, particularly the spike in cases in the north west, cannot be fully explained by "it's Indian families simple, innit".

As I stated, it has not happened in some other places with high numbers of Indian families, or indeed concentration (London and Leicester). If a spike was going to be in any region/city, it would, on the grounds of probability (assuming it is just down to ethnicity) be Leicester and/or London. Added to this, is that thousands of travellers from India have landed in Heathrow. I also doubt deprivation in the Indian community is having a substantial impact as it has an overall lower level of deprivation, as measured by Indices of Multiple Deprivation. There surely has to be another factor at work.

It's hardly a controversial take. It's an open question.

What's your explanation then? I've given you mine: it spreads in those Indian communities that suffer some deprivation. I think Bolton and places like Leicester were a more likely home for a cluster than London commuter belt because of the number of social and familial contacts are likely different. ALl throughout this epidemic we've seen that the Covid affects the more deprived areas and I suspect the same factor is at play again.

I can't say much more unless you actually deconstruct my argument or come up with something yourself.

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital data mixed news

Admissions down again to 177 which is only up from 158 last week - smallest week to week rise in a few days.

NW input also down again to 53. A lower share than it has been.

That's the good news,

However, England patients UP by 48 to 1170. Last week it fell by 22 to 884. This wk to wk rise of 286 is the biggest weekly jump yet since Delta arrrived.

Bear in mind two things here. Hospital data WILL lag by a week or so the cases numbers And maybe it will be by 2 or 3 weeks the ventilator and death numbers. So we are seeing consequences of before any kind of stability in the region at the moment.

Ventilators are also up again by 13 to 210. That is versus 146 last Friday.

Unfortunately the NW is - as you might expect - the main driver of these increases again.

North West patients up by 23 today to 411 More than double every region bar London and 122 above there.

Wk to wk that is a rise of 139 - a 50% increase in 7 days. By far the most.

Every other region is up but by maybe 10 or 20% wk to wk.

Apart from South West - which is accelerating fast in case numbers over past 10 days and now starting to show i9n hospital data too. But from a tiny base as this is a small rural area.

SW patients up in week from 18 to 36 and ventilators from 2 to 5. Sadly from small acorns grow large trees.

Ventilators were up almost everywhere today but sadly but not surprisingly the NW was up by most

From 79 to 83. It was 49 last Friday.

We have a way to go before NW hospital data starts to improve and with other regions climbing in cases they will start going this way too next week.

We need NW to show some downturn soon or England patients will climb over 2000 and ventilators over 300 quickly as the other regions one by one add to the daily rise.

Not sure what the government or the NHS see as an acceptable ceiling. It will hopefully never get near the 37,000 patients and 4000 ventilators of January. But what ceiling will be low enough to open up in 4 weeks is another matter.