Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

CASE CHANGE DATA - REGIONAL IMPACT

Every England region saw a fall in their total cases. But there were big differences.

It significantly boosted the South East and North West by dropping their numbers by a huge amount.

But had only a small impact on Yorkshire.

Here are the MINUS numbers that every England region had today:

SOUTH

East - MINUS 616 cases

London - MINUS 796 cases

South East - MINUS 1030 cases

South West - MINUS 683 cases


MIDLANDS

East - MINUS 389 cases

West - MINUS 673 cases


NORTH

North East - MINUS 170 cases

Yorkshire - MINUS 63 cases.

And North West - MINUS 955 cases

As you can see Yorkshire for some reason very small difference and North West a huge one.

 

[stonerblue]

Weve just had our invite for our 2nd jab and were both Pfizer.
So there's plenty around Fallowfield

have you booked it?

 

[stonerblue]

Probably full of conspiracy nuts round there. ;-)

My 2nd Pfizer jab is due towards the end of April so hopefully I'll get the invite in the next 2 weeks.

No conspiracy nut here thanks.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

A long but very informative thread on the threat of new variants and what the future may hold with different scenarios which could play out.

 

[Mike Brock]

when was the first one?

Each day, the number of AZ 2nd doses are likely to increase, just as first doses climbed,

22nd January bud

 

[Healdplace]

CASE CHANGE DATA - GREATER MANCHESTER IMPACT


However, those in Greater Manchester should not be too excited.

The fall in Greater Manchester cases is actually rather low out of that 955 fall in the NW. It is only 163.

As GM usually clocks up about 50% of the NW total that is well below what you might have expected to see out of the 955 fall - under 20% of the total in fact.

Not sure what this means in terms of Greater Manchester case numbers. Is the fall low because cases were already unusually low in GM or low because cases are rising more in GM than other parts of the NW?

Maybe one of our statisticians can tell us as I have no claim to understand the maths.

Or we will have to wait to see the numbers tomorrow after the impact is over. As cases have risen again today by a little but often fall back over the weekend. Though not necessarily on a Saturday.

Either way in Manchester EIGHT boroughs had minus numbers today as a result of the case removals.

But the other two both went up. Though only in single figures.

The ones that went down saw their Pop Score fall too - obviously - by quite consistently modest numbers.

Bolton was one of the unlucky ones to rise by 6 cases and a Pop score of 2

Bury fell by 15 cases and a Pop score of MINUS 8

Manchester fell by 31 cases and a Pop Score of MINUS 4

Oldham was the other unlucky one to go up also by 6 cases and a Pop score rise of 3.

Rochdale fell by 15 cases and a Pop score of MINUS 7

Salford fell by 17 cases and a Pop score of MINUS 7

Stockport fell by 23 cases and a Pop Score of MINUS 8

Tameside fell by 25 cases and a Pop Score of MINUS 11

Trafford fell by 20 cases and a Pop Score of MINUS 9

And Wigan fell by 29 cases and a Pop sore of MINUS 9

As you can see the rise for the two who did was very similar and the falls for those that clocked up minus scores were very similar as the small range of Pop Score reductions for these 8 boroughs show.

When we last had a big case change like this (the student reallocation one in September) it disproportionately impacted Manchester and Salford - which rose massively with hundreds added to each - and boosted areas like Trafford and Stockport who had a modest number of cases taken off them.

This was much more even as the change was a generic one not one based on where there are universities.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

22nd January bud

thanks - 11 weeks today then, I think. Good for you!

 

[Chappie]

have you booked it?

Yes , invite today, jab tomorrow

 

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA


A modest fall for Friday of well under 100 patients today. Admissions too seem to not be falling any more. But UK now below 2800 patients in hospital with Covid when it was nearly 40,000 in January. Ventilators sub 400 in England but not quite yet in UK. With dates when numbers were lower slipping back regularly in early October. A rise in ventilators in the North West and patients in the East were the biggest blips. But nothing yet too worrying and it will be harder with numbers so low to see great changes day to day. Next few days will tell us a lot about whether we are stalling or still falling.





UK total:


Patients down to 2795 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 36, 453 in 81 days) :- lowest since 2 October

Ventilators down to 405 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3672 in 75 days) : lowest since 5 October


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

189 Covid admissions (6 April) following 183, 188, 156, 179, 178, 180, 225 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down today by 61 to 2321 v 2784 last week :- lowest since 3 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 015 in 81 days)

Ventilators: down 15 to 362 v 436 last week :- lowest since 6 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3374 in 75 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 5 days to today and v last week



East UP 5 to 194 v 196 // down 6 to 24 v 35

London down 8 to 561 v 652 // down 4 to 118 v 137

Midlands down 27 to 464 v 563 // down 6 to 74 v 96

NE & Yorks down 8 to 429 v 502 // down 1 to 61 v 65

North West down 12 to 422 v 512 // UP 5 to 56 v 64

South East down 12 to 172 v 276// down 2 to 23 v 27

South West UP 1 to 79 v 106 // down 1 to 6 v 12`

 

[Barcon]

Quick question. If you have the Astra vaccine as your first shot, do you have to also have the Astra when it comes the getting your second?
Thanks.