Coronavirus (2021) thread

[M18CTID]

30 deaths ad 2672 cases

Was 53 and 3023 last Thursday so the downward trend continues

 

[Manc in London]

Here are figures for each region of England just released showing the % of population aged over 50 who have had at least one vaccination dose.


East of England. 96%

London. 86.7%

Midlands. 95.5%

NE &Yorkshire. 95.7%

North West. 94.9%

South East. 96%

South West. 96.9%


London again being the problem area. Why is this happening as it had been true throughout the vaccination programme and might be a factor in why the variant has taken root there.

I can only guess why vaccine take up is lower in London. I would suggest higher concentrations of BAME communities. It was expected that there would be issues with take up among some of these communities. I don't know if this has been reflected in reality.

Looking at the data for Barnet, the wards with the lowest take up are the areas with the highest concentrations of BAME communities, with one of the lowest rates of vaccination being in wards with large Jewish communities (Hendon and Golders Green). I cannot say if this is due to the Jewish communities being less likely to have the jab or other groups who live in these areas.

One of the issues our public health team have found over the last few years is that there is a high number of people, primarily BAME, who are not registered with a doctor. This leads to local A&Es being flooded with people who have minor ailments.

It makes me laugh when friends from back home think places like Oldham and Bolton have high concentrations of BAME residents. It's nowhere near the level of some London boroughs. Newham's BAME population is c75%, while in Oldham it is c25%.

 

[Bluesince1979]

I can only guess why vaccine take up is lower in London. I would suggest higher concentrations of BAME communities. You are probably looking at close to 50% who are not white British. It was expected that there would be issues with take up among some of these communities. I don't know if this has been reflected in reality.

Looking at the data for Barnet, the wards with the lowest take up are the areas with the highest concentrations of BAME communities, with one of the lowest rates of vaccination being in wards with large Jewish communities (Hendon and Golders Green). I cannot say if this is due to the Jewish communities being less likely to have the jab or other groups who live in these areas.

One of the issues our public health team have found over the last few years is that there is a high number of people, primarily BAME, who are not registered with a doctor. This leads to local A&Es being flooded with people who have minor ailments.

It makes me laugh when friends from back home think places like Oldham and Bolton have high concentrations of BAME residents. It's nowhere near the level of some London boroughs. Newham's BAME population is c75%, while in Oldham it is c25%.

Whats the reason why BAME are reluctant ?

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I can only guess why vaccine take up is lower in London. I would suggest higher concentrations of BAME communities. It was expected that there would be issues with take up among some of these communities. I don't know if this has been reflected in reality.

Looking at the data for Barnet, the wards with the lowest take up are the areas with the highest concentrations of BAME communities, with one of the lowest rates of vaccination being in wards with large Jewish communities (Hendon and Golders Green). I cannot say if this is due to the Jewish communities being less likely to have the jab or other groups who live in these areas.

One of the issues our public health team have found over the last few years is that there is a high number of people, primarily BAME, who are not registered with a doctor. This leads to local A&Es being flooded with people who have minor ailments.

It makes me laugh when friends from back home think places like Oldham and Bolton have high concentrations of BAME residents. It's nowhere near the level of some London boroughs. Newham's BAME population is c75%, while in Oldham it is c25%.

Isn’t the main finding that vacation rates in all regions of the country are high / good?

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today


Also v 7 days ago


SOUTH

East UP 76 to 222 v 202

London down 26 to 315 v 291

South East UP 58 to 271 v 321

South West UP 13 to 101 v 125




MIDLANDS

East down UP 44 to 241 v 289

West UP 49 to 215 v 242



NORTH

North East UP 35 to 94 v 123

Yorkshire down 88 to 405 v 609

And, NORTH WEST down 2 to 274 v 254



Modest changes today - North West down all of 2! BUT stays below Yorkshire and London. And only 3 ahead of the South East.

The coming together of all these totals is a good sign. Ups and downs daily are inevitable and meaningless - hence adding the week to week comparison which is more telling.

 

[shemnel]

English cases, by test type, date of test specimen

i've added in some events, as context. I think the green line is now a bit redundant if i understand the new accounting, which is LFD without positive PCR backup is not counted towards case-load

n.b. in anticipation of the interpretation of spikes in the line after each 'event' this is not because the event caused the spike, this is because people go for their test on a Monday, it is a pattern repeated throughout the last year of data, when not smoothed

 

[splinter]

I can only guess why vaccine take up is lower in London. I would suggest higher concentrations of BAME communities. It was expected that there would be issues with take up among some of these communities. I don't know if this has been reflected in reality.

Looking at the data for Barnet, the wards with the lowest take up are the areas with the highest concentrations of BAME communities, with one of the lowest rates of vaccination being in wards with large Jewish communities (Hendon and Golders Green). I cannot say if this is due to the Jewish communities being less likely to have the jab or other groups who live in these areas.

One of the issues our public health team have found over the last few years is that there is a high number of people, primarily BAME, who are not registered with a doctor. This leads to local A&Es being flooded with people who have minor ailments.

It makes me laugh when friends from back home think places like Oldham and Bolton have high concentrations of BAME residents. It's nowhere near the level of some London boroughs. Newham's BAME population is c75%, while in Oldham it is c25%.

Russian roulette

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases

173 cases today - down 2 on yesterday. But UP 35 on last week.

As the NW fell today by 2 GM had 'all' of this! But largely irrelevant. Though GM % running high again at 63.1%



Manchester top scores on 42 which is down 5 on day but up 17 wk to wk

Bolton up 3 to 26 from yesterday and up 8 on last week.

Oldham back up by 2 to 23 which is a fall of 10 on last week.

Wigan next on 18 which is down 1 on the day and 5 from last week

Trafford again lost a little ground today on 18 - up 6 on the day and 10 in the week. Also lost another 2 in the overall Popscore to Stockport who had a better day. Though not as good as it had yesterday.

Trafford's over all Pop lead on Stockport is now 193.

6910 v 7103.

Both around 1000 below every other GM borough and 2000 - 3000 below some.

Stockport not far below on 15 which is up 7 on the day and 8 from last week.


The other 4 boroughs have single figures:-


Salford on 8 - down 4 on the day and 8 wk to wk.

Rochdale also 8 - down big (16) day to day and 7 wk to wk

Tameside is also on 8 - up 7 on the day and 5 week to week.

But top of the tree is:-

Bury on 7 - down 1 day to day and 3 week to week


An OK day pretty static as you might expect. But tomorrow will be the kicker as that is when we had all those negative numbers last week so it will be a bit of a downer as all Weekly Pop numbers are likely to go up.

At least it will be a one off.



Weekly cases:-

Bury 31, Tameside 41, Trafford 56, Stockport 64, Salford 64, Rochdale 86, Wigan 93, Bolton 107, Oldham 123, Manchester 236

 

[unicorn]

The most important thing is that the vaccines continue to protect us from serious illness against all strains. I think the authtorities must now know whether vaccinated people are susceptible to serious illness by now.

Test and trace absolutely must know the outcomes for those who were infected. I'm hoping the fact that we haven't heard about this means its good news...the vaccines might not be able to prevent infection by the SA variant but hopefully it still protects against its worst effects. if we can keep a lid on things then we should be able to play catch up in the Autumn.

Peoples patience though will wane. We might find that people just start to accept an increased risk because the social cost is too high. Moot point though as we don' even know the risks at the moment. We just have uncertainty.

Spot on. I assume we know by now whether vaccinations protects against the worst impacts of the South African (and other variants); it would be good to know, but the media clearly have more pressing interests(like admiralty uniforms) than whether we live or die and whether we can resume a normal life.

 

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:


Good falls in both England and the other UK regions. Just 315 in hospital outside England - down from 4912 in January! UK now exactly 2200 patients in hospital with Covid when it was nearly 40,000 in January. Ventilators sub 300 in England. With dates when numbers were lower slipping back now in late September.

South West's rise in ventilators improved today with a good fall. North West had its best day in a while with good falls in patients and ventilators now in the 30s nearly half where they were 2 weeks ago.

Things still going in the right direction pretty much everywhere.




UK total:


Patients down to 2200 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 048 in 87 days) :- lowest since 27 September

Ventilators down to 327 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3750 in 81 days) : lowest since 29 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

153 Covid admissions (13 April) following 173, 175, 151, 167, 167, 189, 183 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down today by 87 to 1885 v 2382 last week :- lowest since 27 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 451 in 87 days)

Ventilators: down 21 to 294 v 377 last week :- lowest since 1 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3442 in 81 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 13 to 168 v 189 // down 3 to 17 v 30

London down 15 to 498 v 569// down 4 to 102 v 122

Midlands down 11 to 353 v 491 // down 1 to 63 v 80

NE & Yorks down 10 to 338 v 437 // down 4 to 48 v 62

North West down 28 to 330 v 434 // down 7 to 39 v 51

South East down 5 to 133 v 184 // UP 2 to 15 v 25

South West down 5 to 65 v 78 // down 4 to 10 v 7