Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

1,129 new infections in Scotland

30 are in people aged 65+ (figure is obviously low but definitely rising with the higher case numbers)
191 aged 45-64

420 aged 25-44
480 aged 0-24 (Inclusive of 231 aged 0-14)

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1 death was aged 85+

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20k first doses (including me and Mrs AB!)
23k second doses

Slight week on week decreases in Glasgow cases, notable week on week increases in Lanarkshire and Lothian areas.

It is hard to directly compare with the N Ireland weekly data they post daiy as they use the 60 - 79 ad 80 + age ranges, But this has been around 4% of the total for both added together in the past week or so and under 0.5% for a while now in over 80s.

Working out a percentage is the only way to tell if it is moving up or down. And in NI it has definitely been increasing from around 70 to 80% in the under 50s and falling from around 8% to 4 %in the over 60s duringthe past month or so.

But that looks very similar in pattern of ages to me.

 

[Healdplace]

This week compared to last for hospital admissions in Scotland

158 (+15 on previous week)

Ages

85+: 6 (+1)
75-84: 13 (+7)
65-75: 15 (+6)

45-64: 36 (-1)
25-44: 55 (-11)

Under 25s: 33 (+13) this figure of 33 includes 12 kids aged just 0-4.

Don't really know what to take from that, especially the part in the middle.

Mmm yes that does need watching.

 

[Marvin]

South Africa. Spiking. Doing an India. Is this a mid-Winter effect? Hopefully, that is all it is.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Oh look the modelling used to extend lock down was based on out of date data that massively underestimates vaccine effectiveness.
What a surprise - NOT

Covid modelling that pushed back June 21 was based on out-of-date data

Government published figures to support pushing back ‘Freedom Day’ despite knowing estimates of vaccine effectiveness were incorrect

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[unicorn]

Mmm yes that does need watching.

12 children aged 0-4 admitted to hospital in just a week, in Scotland alone ? Now that's really worrying as I thought the chances of hospitalisation in those age bands was incredibly low.

I guess it could be they were admitted with non-Covid illness but tested positive with mild Covid symptoms.

Why aren't the media reporting on this and asking questions ?

 

[Manc in London]

Based on my own experience the care sector is struggling like most to recruit staff. It's never been a glamorous choice anyway but the recent year or so has possibly put people off even more so.

Yes, recruitment and retention has been an issue for a long time. As a result, there appear to be a lot of low quality staff in the industry (based on my experience). I guess it doesn't help that care assistants are paid a pittance. The whole sector is a stinking mess,certainly the public sector element.

 

[Manc in London]

Id say we are far from peaked yet as a country. its mainly hit 1 area of the country that has allowed some semblance of control with surge testing and vaccines. the Delta variant still has the rest of the country to hit yet.

it took nearly 3 months for the Kent variant to spread across the country from the initial epicentre. Delta has been community spread in NW for less than 8 weeks. odds are, and is being assumed by the Gov that the next 3/4 weeks it will hit full community spread in other areas.

Hopefully the fact that we seem to be flattening it well in the NW could help the rest of the country out a lot.

Out of interest, any info/data clarifying that it has only really hit the NW?

 

[Marvin]

Oh look the modelling used to extend lock down was based on out of date data that massively underestimates vaccine effectiveness.
What a surprise - NOT

Covid modelling that pushed back June 21 was based on out-of-date data

Government published figures to support pushing back ‘Freedom Day’ despite knowing estimates of vaccine effectiveness were incorrect

www.telegraph.co.uk

I can't read the Telegraph article but these are some of the key assumptions behind their model. WHat's out? Is it out by much?

 

[Marvin]

Out of interest, any info/data clarifying that it has only really hit the NW?

 

[SWP's back]

You telling me people , clean them with sanitized hands then re sanitize after every use

Yes.