Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Lower numbers in all regions as you would expect but up from last week. So hard to know the true add ons to come.

Possibly around 2500/3000 I would think is a good guess across all the England regions. I hope a lot lower.

In Greater Manchester despite the artificially low numbers only 3 boroughs made it below 100.

You can presume (though by no means with certainty) the relative comoarison of numbers in GM are correct if all the numbers in truth shiuld really go up. But as these will be added on in future today's numbers will count as of today.

On that basis Manchester still over 300 - just.

Wigan alkmost made it to 200 so in real numbers will have done.

Salford and Rochdale still in the 120s. Rochdale has suddenly started a peak so needs watching after pst few days.

The only 3 under 100 are Bolton on 94. Tameside on 83 and Stockport the lowest - for first time in a while - on 72.

Even so all three of these are still up week to week. Bolton by 18, Tameside by 36 and Stockport by 10.

But the three boroughs with the lowest Pop scores have the lowest cases so that makes sense even if they all would in reality be up a bit I would presume.

 

[BlueAnorak]

As suspected then, it was a more than a bit sweeping to say ''which is the way travellers got round the problem''.
Undoubtedly a handful may well have used that method, but it would appear to be very much in the minority given the lack of focus or media attention on it (I don't listen to the radio so I wouldn't have heard it there).

Was hoping for something a bit more substantial than an alleged radio report from 2/3 months ago but I'll keep digging as it's something I'd be genuinely interested in reading about.

I do agree they were very slow to put Turkey on the red list, but that pretty much sums up the charlatans running the shitshow.

In better news, first jab yesterday afternoon and just a sore arm so far, hoping I've dodged some of the more brutal side effects many people have mentioned.

Considering the travel agents concerned were based in Lancashire mill towns and North Manchester, maybe not. Probably correlation rather than causal but even so not great.
The only way to keep varriants out is to close your borders to any sort of travel and even then it can still get in via container freight.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Thought it was interesting that Andy Marr reported his own condition on his programme this morning; he’d been double vaccinated but caught Covid, he believes when reporting the G7 in Cornwall, and its effects floored him last week, which in turn shattered his sense of having vaccine omnipotence.

Yes the G7 summit was a super spreader event as can be seen from Cornwall case numbers.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Due to not giving AZ to the under 40’s (or under 30’s, can’t remember which) and yes supply is an issue for Pfizer and Moderna.

Not giving it to men over 25 is a big mistake IMO - especially as Myocarditis is just a big an an issue in men for Pfizer/Moderna as clots are for women.

 

[SWP's back]

Not giving it to men over 25 is a big mistake IMO - especially as Myocarditis is just a big an an issue in men for Pfizer/Moderna as clots are for women.

As big an issue in that it’s statistically not an issue. Women are ten times more likely to suffer blood clot issues from the pill.

 

[Healdplace]

That base rate fallacy thread linked above is like all statistics. Unless you understand how they work - which many will not - then they are very easy to mislead.

Of course once a certain percentage of the population are double vaccinated more of them than not will end up catching it or going into hospital or dying than those who are not by sheer weight of numbers.

People will forget that 90% of one million means 900,000 who can be infected after vaccination versus 10% not vaccinated = 100,000 who can alsi catch it more easily because they are not.

Even if 6 times as many unvaccinated as vaccinated catch it you still get more because the numbers vaccinated have become so much higher

Its the same issue we see in the death numbers once they got low and I have mentioned in my reports of these as to why I do not do the week to week lists of deaths and percentage across the past month like I used to do.

When you are in single figure numbers one extra death can make something look true that isn't because it has a misleading impact on the % chage.

So I stopped doing the % lists as they were no longer meaningful because the numbers made them lose the credibility that had when they were much larger.

 

[BlueAnorak]

As big an issue in that it’s statistically not an issue. Women are ten times more likely to suffer blood clot issues from the pill.

Well yes. A slightly higher chance of drowning in the bath than getting a clot or heat muscle issues but there you go.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Lower numbers in all regions as you would expect but up from last week. So hard to know the true add ons to come.

Possibly around 2500/3000 I would think is a good guess across all the England regions. I hope a lot lower.

In Greater Manchester despite the artificially low numbers only 3 boroughs made it below 100.

You can presume (though by no means with certainty) the relative comoarison of numbers in GM are correct if all the numbers in truth shiuld really go up. But as these will be added on in future today's numbers will count as of today.

On that basis Manchester still over 300 - just.

Wigan alkmost made it to 200 so in real numbers will have done.

Salford and Rochdale still in the 120s. Rochdale has suddenly started a peak so needs watching after pst few days.

The only 3 under 100 are Bolton on 94. Tameside on 83 and Stockport the lowest - for first time in a while - on 72.

Even so all three of these are still up week to week. Bolton by 18, Tameside by 36 and Stockport by 10.

But the three boroughs with the lowest Pop scores have the lowest cases so that makes sense even if they all would in reality be up a bit I would presume.

Don’t you think it’s about time we stopped counting positive tests and focussed just on hospitalisations and deaths, like we do with every other respiratory virus that visits us on a regular basis?

9000 confirmed ‘cases’ in school children last week led to 250000 being absent from school, which is completely unjustifiable on any level.

 

[Len Rum]

Two week break clause review tomorrow.
Freedom day?
Will 'the Saj' go for it?

 

[johnnytapia]

Believe the app is advisory (and all over the place wrt who it pings)

a call from them however is mandatory

if it’s just the app and I was you i’d go and get a pack of 7 LFT’s from the chemist and do one every day and go about my life as normal unless i got a positive test

I teach so I’ve a shedload of LFTs. Negative today. I’ll check on that and if the app is advisory I might well do the daily testing etc as you suggest