Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Rammy Blue]

Quite the increase in the Netherlands.

Welcome to Delta.

 

[Cotton Weave Blue]

All I see about and for a long time is the oldish Folk , if people want to hide away and not live there life but everyone I know had enough , I seen my mates once since this happened, we missed out on loads having a young family

Then people get on the high horse about it our average deaths are way down at the minute too

Got a young family too mate - my daughter was born december 19 and we've done our best to support old and vulnerable whilst raising a kid in these weird time. Cant quantify the effect masks is doing for young kids growing up but they arent interested in that. But I'm selfish because I want to live normal when allowed.

 

[Healdplace]

All of todays England hospital deaths were in the last 5 days and the daily numbers are clearly now rising more rapidly.

Jul 6 on 3 after 1 day

Jul 5 on 12 after 2 days

Jul 4 on 13 after 3 days

Jul 3 on 15 after 4 days

AND

Jul 2 on 22 after 5 days.

This is the highest 5 day total since 12 April.

The speed with which that highest since date is being pushed backwards is the best indicator of how numbers are going. And there has been a noticeable acceleration in the past 10 days or so,


The last six days of this past week total 81 deaths

The same six days last week total was 64. The week before 45. The week before that 35.


On that week when 12 April saw the last highest 5 day total the six day number was 96. And 77 the week after. As numbers in April were falling before Delta took hold

In the week before that 96 in early April to give some idea where we might be headed if we reverse that path upward the six day number was 106 - week before 145 - week before 208.


Not making scary predictions but form your own conclusions - as that data is not from last Winter it is late March / early April.

Vaccines in the 3 months since WILL surely have helped slow the rise down but that set of numbers is the base to compare the coming uptick of deaths alongside.

We have to hope those 3 months of jabs will make a big difference to that kind of escalation this time round.

We already can see it has made a gigantic difference from the way numbers escalated in the pre vaccine wave in January When death numbers in England hospitals were over 600 A DAY for 3 weeks. And on that 6 day total above were over 4000! Which puts the current 81 in perspective.


If you look back to mid December in that wave which peaked in mid January on the point where cases were roughly where they are now (around 29,000 and rising as we are rising at this point - the last time up ultimately to over 60,000 in January) the equivalent past 6 day number THEN in December was 2177 deaths.

So we are currently way way below that and the main reason is the 6 months of vaccinations. Though Winter v Summer will be a factor too.

Nonetheless 81 v 2177 let alone the 4000+ at the peak is a number we can see clearly is remarkable given where we might be again had the vaccines not been so successful.

 

[Quad]

Got a young family too mate - my daughter was born december 19 and we've done our best to support old and vulnerable whilst raising a kid in these weird time. Cant quantify the effect masks is doing for young kids growing up but they arent interested in that. But I'm selfish because I want to live normal when allowed.

Bet that has been hard no baby groups etc to goto , mine is 32 months now and won’t join in with other kids she don’t know , I seen it in the toddler groups now as I’m off work and been able to take her

it’s such a sad state that I can goto work but can’t get together with my mates

 

[argyle]

All of todays England hospital deaths were in the last 5 days and the daily numbers are clearly now rising more rapidly.

Jul 6 on 3 after 1 day

Jul 5 on 12 after 2 days

Jul 4 on 13 after 3 days

Jul 3 on 15 after 4 days

AND

Jul 2 on 22 after 5 days.

This is the highest 5 day total since 12 April.

The speed with which that highest since date is being pushed backwards is the best indicator of how numbers are going. And there has been a noticeable acceleration in the past 10 days or so,


The last six days of this past week total 81 deaths

The same six days last week total was 64. The week before 45. The week before that 35.


On that week when 12 April saw the last highest 5 day total the six day number was 96. And 77 the week after. As numbers in April were falling before Delta took hold

In the week before that 96 in early April to give some idea where we might be headed if we reverse that path upward the six day number was 106 - week before 145 - week before 208.


Not making scary predictions but form your own conclusions - as that data is not from last Winter it is late March / early April.

Vaccines in the 3 months since WILL surely have helped slow the rise down but that set of numbers is the base to compare the coming uptick of deaths alongside.

We have to hope those 3 months of jabs will make a big difference to that kind of escalation this time round.

We already can see it has made a big difference from the way numbers escalated in the pre vaccine wave in January When numbers in England hospitals were over 600 A DAY for 3 weeks. And on that 6 day total above were over 4000!

It doesn't take mathematician to see the way the trends are heading.

No idea why the government has decided now is the time to unlock fully when all the trends are heading upwards.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

3799 cases in Scotland

148 of them in over 65s
728 aged 45-64

1338 aged 25-44
1568 aged 0-24

That bottom group split further

453 aged 0-14
1115 aged 15-24

***********

5 deaths

2 aged 85+
3 aged 75-84

*************

Vaccines

10.7k first doses
17.8k second doses

 

[Gabriel]

Welcome to Delta.

Delta had been in the country since early April, bubbling along, but lifting the restrictions has seen it take off.

 

[Healdplace]

It doesn't take mathematician to see the way the trends are heading.

No idea why the government has decided now is the time to unlock fully when all the trends are heading upwards.

I think because of the vast difference in where they are heading upwards toward given those comparative figures I post v the wave last winter in the post above and when then this was with no vaccines yet ready.

Whether they should is another question but this is clearly why.

We are on an upward spiral but not to anything like the horrors we faced last Winter.

If that changes you can bet so will the policy.

 

[argyle]

I think because of the vast difference in where they are heading upwards toward given those comparative figures I post v the wave last winter with no vaccines yet ready.

Whether they should is another question but this is clearly why.

Do you think it's a good move by the government or a foolish one?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No idea why the government has decided now is the time to unlock fully when all the trends are heading upwards.

It's because their own MPs wouldn't support doing anything else.