Coronavirus (2021) thread

[andyhinch]

I think because of the vast difference in where they are heading upwards toward given those comparative figures I post v the wave last winter with no vaccines yet ready.

Whether they should is another question but this is clearly why.

We are on an upward spiral but not to anything like the horrors we faced last Winter.

If that changes you can bet so will the policy.

I don’t think they wanted to open things up going into winter so it was probably now or never, just hope it doesn’t send us back into lockdown a few months on, thanks for all your updates btw.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Starting to see reports of the impact on other health care services from this wave now.




There was something posted a few weeks back from an executive in the NHS which gave a very measured and positive overview but don't recall his name. Wonder where he's at now.

 

[Tonster]

Do you think it's a good move by the government or a foolish one?

My personal view is its a very tough call. Cases clearly rising but mainly in the young and unvaccinated. Deaths still low especially in comparison to normal daily deaths.
It would be September until all adults are double jabbed. If you wait then to open up and cases spike massively then you’re into winter and flu and general illness season. It might not be stated but it’s probably considered to be better to have the spike in the next month when hospitals can cope better than in winter. Then in September boosters take over. In reality 19/7 will add to it but many of the ‘rules’ have been ignored for months. Just my take on it.

 

[True_Blue69]

I don’t think they wanted to open things up going into winter so it was probably now or never, just hope it doesn’t send us back into lockdown a few months on, thanks for all your updates btw.

I think this is definitely the case. Open just as kids finish school for the summer, hope for a seasonal lull with more vaccines and keep our fingers crossed! Can definitely see the logic plus deaths are at an acceptable level as horrible as that sounds.

 

[Musampa 209]

I don’t know how people can say it’s not right or a tough decision to open up.

The below graph is key, rising cases are completely irrelevant when the number of deaths and hospitalisations are so low and have been for a considerable amount of time.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data

STARTING TO LOOK MORE CONCERNING HERE TOO INEVITABLY

0 deaths - was 0 last week - at least this good news is yet to change

510 cases - was 375 last week

17.6% positivity - was 12.4 % last week

3054 rolling 7 day cases total - was 2883 yesterday & 1852 last week

8 Care Home outbreaks - up from 5 yesterday & 4 last week
.

THIS IS THE BIGGEST SINGKE CONCERNING NUMBER TODAY AS IF IT IS BEING REPLICATED AROUBD THE UK WE HAVE GOT THE VACCINATION OF STAFF V CIVIL LIBERTIES ROW TO CONFRONT AS THE VIRUS MUST BE GETTING THROUGH SOMEHOW


43 Patients - up 6 on yesterday & from 20 last week.

1 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 2 last week

THOUGH IF THE CARE HOME ISSUE ESCALATES FURTHER THAT WILL NOT REMAIN,

WONDER IF THE SAME ISSUE IS OCCURRING IN SCOTLAND AS OLDER TESTING POSITIVES GO UP???

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I think this is definitely the case. Open just as kids finish school for the summer, hope for a seasonal lull with more vaccines and keep our fingers crossed! Can definitely see the logic plus deaths are at an acceptable level as horrible as that sounds.

It's the only thing that makes sense to me.

With the numbers fully vaccinated combined with the part vaccinated plus those that have had it then soon there will be hardly any left that aren't in those groups to catch it.

It's being referred to as hybrid herd immunity and now is the right time of the year too. Unless there is a decision to vaccinate children then this is the end game right now.

 

[Healdplace]

I don’t know how people can say it’s not right or a tough decision to open up.

The below graph is key, rising cases are completely irrelevant when the number of deaths and hospitalisations are so low and have been for a considerable amount of time.

View attachment 20831

DATA 1 July NOTE.

I suggest you read the past few days of my hospital reports posted in here for actual up to date numbers. As they have escalated a lot in the past week as they always lag cases. And cases are now rising everywhere as Delta is no longer a localised problem.

Those graphs are not entirely untrue. And the escalation is nothing like it was last winter as I have just shown in my posts on the previous page,

But the graphs are out of date and a bit misleading as to where we are now.

We are not going near the 39,000 we had in hospital with Covid in January.

But we are also not going to be at just 3000 or so as I had hoped a week or so ago,

And if we get to 10K that will start to stress the health service.

The main reason (though others mentioned by posters above are also true) that we are opening up is that this escalation now is safer than in winter when other illnesses will stress the NHS already - so delaying the inevitable is a mistake. Calculated gamble as it still is to do so now.

 

[Healdplace]

33 deaths

32, 548 cases. 1000 below what Zoe predicted for today.

Up 6480 on last Wednesday,

Most cases since 23 January 3 days after the day we had the most deaths ever on one day.

That was 1820 - not 33 by the way.

On 23 January there were 1348 deaths. Also not 33.

So - whilst yes - this is not good news. Perspective shows we are miles ahead of where we were in January when we had this number of cases last.

 

[Manchester33]

33 deaths

32, 548 cases. 1000 below what Zoe predicted for today.

Most since 23 January 3 days after the day we had the most deaths ever on one day.

That was 1820 - not 33 by the way.

On 23 January there were 1348 deaths.

Do you know why the Zoe app would overestimate cases? Is that a good sign?