Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Manchester33 said:
Do you know why the Zoe app would overestimate cases? Is that a good sign?
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Zoe is a guesstimate. It is actually best at predicting trends not actual numbers. But it is usually on the right track.

As it estimates from data reported it can be wildly wrong if it has too few people using the app locally,

It has never given data for East Lancashire where much of this current wave started and is still very high as too few locals use the app there.

Its data on Bury right now looks absurd as it claims it as the worst place in the UK when it is almost the best in GM! IN reality it is somewhere in between. Not the best but not remotely the worst,
 
Healdplace said:
33 deaths

32, 548 cases. 1000 below what Zoe predicted for today.

Up 6480 on last Wednesday,

Most cases since 23 January 3 days after the day we had the most deaths ever on one day.

That was 1820 - not 33 by the way.

On 23 January there were 1348 deaths. Also not 33.

So - whilst yes - this is not good news. Perspective shows we are miles ahead of where we were in January when we had this number of cases last.
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I tend to compare it against the equivalent upward trending curve rather than the last it time it was that high (which was on a downward trending curve). So in this case similar to around 20 Dec where hospitalisations were around 2200/day and deaths around 500/day. Still many times higher than it is now, however.
 
Big rises today as you might expect from the numbers.

But GM - though well up - did relatively OK.

North west by far the most up sadly - by 990 on the day to 4950. Highest easily still in England.

GM rose today by 426 - which is below the 495 for 50% par of the NW.

Week to week it is again even better for both:

North West is UP by just 94 week to week.

But GM is actually DOWN 89 week to week on 2031.
 
GM numbers show nobody under 100 again and Manchester just staying below 400 and down week to week.

But 4 other boroughs top 200 today - Wigan on 242 as you night expect - though down week to week too - Oldham almost ahead of it on 233 - which is up wk to wk. So it will still be worst Pop Score in GM sadly.

Salford also up big and week to week on 214 and Rochdale sneaked in on exactly 200.

Though that is down on last week.

Trafford almost made it six but still lost a huge chunk of its Pop Score again to Stockport - itself up by 34 but unlike Trafford Stockport actually down week to week. Though not by much.

At the other end Bolton was up day to day and week to week though still second lowest score on 137,

And Bury lowest again - though well up on 110 - though that too is well down on last Wednesday.

So most places are improving slowly - but Oldham and Rochdale are starting to post big numbers alongside the ongoing issues in Trafford.
 
England hospital data

Another bad day and the NW is still the focus just now joined by others meaning numbers are spiralling,

Not yet seeing the hoped for drops in NW numbers.

England admissions from Monday (always 48 hours behind the rest of the data) at a new high of 416 - up from 390 the day before and 244 the week before. And the 5th straight daily increase. Though Monday is always a big admissions day of course.

NW back to having the most admissions - a new high of 114 versus 75 the week before and 80 the day before.

Yorkshire had 95 admitted and Midands 81 and these are both double the numbers from the previous week so are rising much faster than NW is now. The only good news for NW really,

Patients in from these regions:- NW now 600 - up from 570 yesterday (so 84 left whilst those 114 were added is a nicer way to look at it - though a few of those will tragically not have been going home - and it is not strictly true due to the admissions data being 2 days out of phase),

NW was 489 last Wednesday, A rise of 111. Previous week it had just risen 52.

Yorkshire rose by 44 to 420 - second most - it was 222 last week - so the biggest rise of 198 in the week.

Midlands also up by 41 to 375 - it was 226 last week - a rise of 149, So also doing worse than the NW which is at least still hinting at flattening if not yet falling,

For the first time in months every region now has over 100 patients with Covid,

THE ENGLAND TOTAL ALSO PASSED 2000

UP 146 ON THE DAY TO 2144.

IT WAS 1500 LAST WEDNESDAY - A RISE OF 644 IN THE WEEK V ONE OF 245 THE WEEK BEFORE
 
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