Coronavirus (2021) thread

[wolfie1988]

Vaccination rates have dropped alarmingly the past weeks. Supply problems I suspect rather than people refusing ??

Astrazeneca barely being used as its not recommended for under 40s. Moderna and Pfizer still in far less supply than AZ

 

[CJH]

33 deaths

32, 548 cases. 1000 below what Zoe predicted for today.

Up 6480 on last Wednesday,

Most cases since 23 January 3 days after the day we had the most deaths ever on one day.

That was 1820 - not 33 by the way.

On 23 January there were 1348 deaths. Also not 33.

So - whilst yes - this is not good news. Perspective shows we are miles ahead of where we were in January when we had this number of cases last.

I am assuming 23 January was the downslope of that wave, more relevant would be the deaths on the upslope where the cases are the same ?. Those graphs are encouraging (if that's an appropriate word to use where deaths are concerned), looks like the vaccines are working to me thankfully.

 

[wolfie1988]

The rise in case numbers seems to be slowing. Still rising quickly but may be slowing to a peak

 

[Saddleworth2]

Do you think it's a good move by the government or a foolish one?

Its a bet.
A bet that the vaccine will protect the most vulnerable.
A bet that those that are not protected avoid serious injury, long covid or death
A bet that the inevitable high cases do not act as a petri dish for a variant capable of body swerving the vaccine.
A bet that the consequences of opening up now are better in the short and medium term for the economy than waiting a couple of months and ensuring the vaccination programme is complete.

Its a tough, tough decision to make. I just wish it was communicated more clearly and better than it is just now.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Its a bet.
A bet that the vaccine will protect the most vulnerable.
A bet that those that are not protected avoid serious injury, long covid or death
A bet that the inevitable high cases do not act as a petri dish for a variant capable of body swerving the vaccine.
A bet that the consequences of opening up now are better in the short and medium term for the economy than waiting a couple of months and ensuring the vaccination programme is complete.

Its a tough, tough decision to make. I just wish it was communicated more clearly and better than it is just now.

It’s silently telling that they won’t publish their modelling as to how they think it will go.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS - VENTILATORS

No more encouraging here sadly,

Another steady rise.

Up 24 in the day to 377 - was 264 last week - which was up just 5

Unfortunately these lag behind patients and presage more NW deaths as these are still the worst in the UK let alone England in the region.

Up again by 6 to 123 - highest in the UK and in months here. That is a rise of 32 in the past 7 days, Not good.

Midlands and Yorkshire not doing well either,

Midlands up 6 to 64 - was 39 last week

And Yorkshire up 11 to 66 - was 29 last week - which is the worst and Yorkshire looks set to take over from the NW in coming weeks for the worst death numbers I suspect based on this =.

But not yet. There will be a lag,

Other regions as yet doing comparatively OK. London only up over the week from 71 to 74.


NORTHERN IRELAND 43 PATIENTS (up 6 on day) & 1 VENTILATOR

SCOTLAND 387 PATIENTS (up 41 on day) & 34 VENTILATORS (up 2 on day)

WALES 59 PATIENTS (down 1 on day) & 7 VENTILATORS (down 1 on day)

TOTAL HERE :- 489 PATIENTS & 42 VENTILATORS


SO THE UK TOTAL TODAY STANDS AT:-

2633 PATIENTS AND 419 VENTILATORS


There were last more patients on 10 April and ventilators on 8 April,].

 

[Healdplace]

I am assuming 23 January was the downslope of that wave, more relevant would be the deaths on the upslope where the cases are the same ?. Those graphs are encouraging (if that's an appropriate word to use where deaths are concerned), looks like the vaccines are working to me thankfully.

I posted that going into data as well this afternoon for this reason.

 

[Healdplace]

I tend to compare it against the equivalent upward trending curve rather than the last it time it was that high (which was on a downward trending curve). So in this case similar to around 20 Dec where hospitalisations were around 2200/day and deaths around 500/day. Still many times higher than it is now, however.

Which again I also did on page 3029.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Its a bet.
A bet that the vaccine will protect the most vulnerable.
A bet that those that are not protected avoid serious injury, long covid or death
A bet that the inevitable high cases do not act as a petri dish for a variant capable of body swerving the vaccine.
A bet that the consequences of opening up now are better in the short and medium term for the economy than waiting a couple of months and ensuring the vaccination programme is complete.

Its a tough, tough decision to make. I just wish it was communicated more clearly and better than it is just now.

Been a few calculated gambles with Covid, looks like we're going for an accumulator this time.

We'd better hope it pays out or we're really fucked. By the time we get 'freedom' we'll still be rising and whereas I accept we need to not stand still, getting rid of compulsory masks & distancing dosen't sit right with me.

 

[Saddleworth2]

It’s silently telling that they won’t publish their modelling as to how they think it will go.

or how many hospitalisations and deaths there are of the double vaccinated.
or how other countries are approaching the same decision.
I have praised Sturgeon in the past about her clarity of communication re Covid. Don't feel that at all just now.