Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE:

0 - 19 (2416) 26.9%

20 - 39 (3631) 40.5%

40 - 59 (1976) 22.0%

60 - 79 (755) 8.4%

80 PLUS (194) 2.2%


As you can see the % below 40 is still falling. Now at 67.4% - and was a few weeks ago 80% when schools were driving it.

The 40 - 59 age range has risen from about 17 to 22%

But the most worrying rise is the over 60s. Up now over 10% which is TRIPLE where it was in mid Summer.

The over 80s alone have gone up 4 or 5 times. Low numbers but they are very likely the ones in the escalating care home numbers and likely the ones driving up ventilator numbers from 1 three weeks ago to 34 today.

These are also where the rising death numbers are coming from too, sadly.

 

[N1985]

Feeling a bit embarrassed asking what I just know is a very obvious question............

We are back from holidays next Saturday (14th) and my daughter is mad keen to see her best friend - but we have heard that the whole family has tested positive and are currently quarantining. They were tested positive on the 4th - and therefore my daughter will see her friend on the 15th (was intending to take her to the Spurs game with us)...........

Am I right to think that because she will have quarantined for 10 days there will be no risk?

As I say - I know this might seem a daft question - as that is why there is a 10 days quarantining period - but just feel that I might be missing something

Thanks

I think the more pressing question is.

Is that a ticket going spare?

 

[Healdplace]

So deaths today with out of hospital England to add are 26.

Last week it was 14 which became 24 later on all settings.


And total cases today with England to come are 3246.

Last week that was 2777.

England later added 19, 175 to total 21 952

 

[Healdplace]

37 all settings deaths.

25, 161 cases - quite a drop today considering the three nations up and two days for Wales. Down from 27, 429 yesterday.

Week to week that is up from 21, 952 last Monday - a rise of 3209 - which is not too bad

That is 21, 915 from England today - down 2281 on yesterday and up 2740 on last week.

 

[Healdplace]

GM data

Another bad day for Stockport sadly. Zoe showing it rising was right. Need to figure out what is going wrong there. Easily the worst in an otherwise good day in GM. Could be headed for the unprecedented sight of being the highest Pop Score in GM for a borough usually vying for the best. So it stands out as something going wrong somewhere.

Four boroughs under 100. And two others almost. Bolton with the lowest Pop rise and Bury with just 53 cases - less than a third of Stockport - who are only behind Manchester today - also struggling compared to the other 8 boroughs and well up week to week as is Stockport, of course.

These are two of the biggest boroughs - of course - so high cases is not the issue - being up week to week seeing rising Pop Score shows their path is up not down more than the rest. Who are at worst flat.

Most boroughs are up slightly on last week. But the reversal of fortune for Stockport given it has the highest vaccination numbers in GM needs to be understood before it gets out of hand. There has to be a local factor at work. If it can be identified it can hopefully be stopped.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE:

0 - 19 (2416) 26.9%

20 - 39 (3631) 40.5%

40 - 59 (1976) 22.0%

60 - 79 (755) 8.4%

80 PLUS (194) 2.2%


As you can see the % below 40 is still falling. Now at 67.4% - and was a few weeks ago 80% when schools were driving it.

The 40 - 59 age range has risen from about 17 to 22%

But the most worrying rise is the over 60s. Up now over 10% which is TRIPLE where it was in mid Summer.

The over 80s alone have gone up 4 or 5 times. Low numbers but they are very likely the ones in the escalating care home numbers and likely the ones driving up ventilator numbers from 1 three weeks ago to 34 today.

These are also where the rising death numbers are coming from too, sadly.

Schools close- kids looked after by grandparents. Cases rise.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Sadly as is not a surprise this has quickly reverted to going back up now cases have stopped falling like they were.

But as yet not much over the long weekend.

Full details to follow but in general:

The Admissions that were falling week to week stalled, and now have risen and are now up week to week by a little.

Numbers always fluctuate over the weekend - falling Saturday and rising Monday.

And in truth the numbers could have been a lot worse.

Patients today are STILL down v last Monday by 211 from 5309 to 5098 today. Last Monday they had risen by 254 week to week. They rose over this weekend by 219 from 4879 to 5098. In the same weekend numbers last week they rose by 198 from 5111 to 5309.

Ventilators have flattened off and are slightly down (by 3) over the weekend and down 29 week to week versus going up 79 the previous week.

North West patients are up by 36 today to 863. Last week they were up by 24 to 888. So hard to balance the increased rise week to week today versus the slightly smaller number of patients in v last week.

NW Ventilators last weekend rose by 6 - 129 to 135 and this weekend fell from 124 to 117.

There are still 3 other regions (London, NE & Yorkshire and Midlands) with more patients in and patients on ventilators than the NW.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

37 all settings deaths.

25, 161 cases - quite a drop today considering the three nations up and two days for Wales. Down from 27, 429 yesterday.

Week to week that is up from 21, 952 last Monday - a rise of 3209 - which is not too bad

That is 21, 915 from England today - down 2281 on yesterday and up 2740 on last week.

3 figures for deaths again tomorrow, which should get the headline writers blood flowing……
We do now need to start moving to counting admissions and deaths from Covid not ‘with Covid‘. There are currently multiple outbreaks in hospital and many incidentally testing positive having been admitted for something else which are skewing the figures.

 

[Healdplace]

3 figures for deaths again tomorrow, which should get the headline writers blood flowing……
We do now need to start moving to counting admissions and deaths from Covid not ‘with Covid‘. There are currently multiple outbreaks in hospital and many incidentally testing positive having been admitted for something else which are skewing the figures.

I agree they are but I cannot see them changing now as this has long been true and they have tinkered but never really clarified.

And yes Tuesday is always a big catch up day so likely over 100 as most of the regions under report at weekend. But I think even the BBC tend to mention that closure of registration office factor now when reporting on Tuesdays. So someone might have had a word.

I guess it can take a long while to establish whether a death is FROM or WITH Covid and there is no easy clarity in some cases. Probably why we still get them added to the numbers even when dating from 2020 even now. There was one last week.

Last year a family member became a Covid stat though that was at least partly due to them being kept on a Covid ward whilst they tried to arrange for her to go home. Taking too long sadly. How you make these decisions varies widely from nation to nation making death numbers difficult to compare. But I doubt that will change as some do all they can to minimise the numbers and others include cases likely others would not.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East DOWN 83 to 2084 V 2060

London DOWN 677 to 2985 V 2719 - biggest fall of the day


South East DOWN 279 to 3066 V 2391


South West DOWN 91 to 2604 V 2069


EVERY REGION DOWN ON DAY AND UP ON LAST WEEK AGAIN





MIDLANDS



East DOWN 361 to 2089 V 1889

West DOWN 620 to 2173 V 1861

Another set of falls but up a little week to week



COMBINING THESE TWO INTO ONE AS THE NHS DOES TOTALS 4262 - STILL THE LARGEST REGION







NORTH



North East DOWN 52 to 905 V 909 - Still falling well and down week to week. Just!



Yorkshire UP 71 to 2732 V 2324 - Only riser today. Just


NE & YORKSHIRE as Zoe and the NHS combines these two for the hospital data and this is now well below the Midlands but the second biggest area with 3637 cases.




AND



NORTH WEST DOWN 160 to 2877 V 2451



Another small fall and up week to week.





Past weeks NW numbers are 2451 - 2265 - 3195 - 3608 - 3456 - 3043 - 3037 - 2877

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 3281 - 2683 - 2999 - 3588 - 3373 - 3311 - 2939 - 2451


Here are the week to weeks above:-


DOWN 830 - DOWN 418 - UP 196 - UP 20 - UP 83 - DOWN 268 - UP 98 - UP 426

THIS IS STARTING TO SHOW A CLEAR UPWARD TRACK





GM numbers in past week 906 - 901 - 1279 - 1486 - 1452 - 1187 - 1308 - 1157

GM numbers week before 1330 - 1068 - 1251 - 1381 - 1331 - 1402 - 1160 - 906

Wk to wk :-


DOWN 424 - DOWN 167 - UP 28 - UP 105 - UP 121 - DOWN 215 - UP 148 - UP 251


Like the NW as a whole the GM week to week trend is clearly up now but not as yet by much




Total in GM from the NW cases Total 40.2%. It was 43.1%% yesterday and 37.0% a week ago

Better today but up week to week.