Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

They haven't. But we've done this to death, I think, we can just agree to differ.

The actual data says otherwise.
But yes we can agree to differ.

 

[trumpton]

~
HOWEVER - THE BIG PROBLEM IS ONE THAT HAS BEEN COMING SINCE THEY SWITCHED ON THE ILLUMINATIONS

The Fylde and Blackpool area is now the highest in the North West - possibly the entire UK - as I warned it might become last week but not expecting it to do a Trafford.

On Zoe it has - now more than TRIPLED over the past ten days and the BIGGEST score in the North West (and possibly England) up in rising numbers daily from 36 K yesterday to 41, 656 - highest numbers I have seen in some time.

You will notice Blackpool deaths have started to appear often in te numbers too, Just as the Morecambe ones (4 today) have come from when that part of North Lancashire was up to high numbers in past month but less than where the Fylde now is - indeed Lancaster/Morecambe is still very high on over

Sorry to be pedantic but looking at Zoe it doesn't provide figures for Blackpool as not enough contributors. The 41656 is for Wyre, an area with no illuminations.

 

[Manc in London]

from the amount of people I’m meeting and the people I’m reading on here being double jabbed is having virtually no effect in preventing infection

I also think ( though not certain ) I’ve seen asymptomatic spread has never been a thing which also would go against what we were originally told

A vaccine is not a force field. It works by helping your body deal with it more effectively. It's stagerring that you don't understand this but then I am coming around to thinking you are on the wind up.

 

[talkativesprout]

I'm pretty sure the Government wants as many to catch it as possible before mid November if that's of any help.
Cases later in the year and early 2022 will have heavier viral loads and be more life threatening.

I'm still testing negative but my word if this is that seasonal infection on steds we have been warned about, give me man flu any day...I can feel where my spine attaches to my skull on the inside.

 

[Healdplace]

Sorry to be pedantic but looking at Zoe it doesn't provide figures for Blackpool as not enough contributors. The 41656 is for Wyre, an area with no illuminations.

You are right that this number was for Wyre. Blackpool as a town has no data on it in Zoe at the moment for me to cite as it probably has too few local contributers (usually the reason for this and it is a small unitary authority) so I cite either Fylde or Wyre - the two big surrounding areas which cover the coast and include towns like Lytham, Cleveleys and Fleetwood as all three are very close together on that coast and often where visitors stay - eg in caravans. And most visitors to the lights go there too even if they stay in Blackpool. Fylde is pretty high too at nearly 23K. Above most of GM.

Cases and deaths created by these areas surrounding Blackpool will end up in Blackpool NHS as the local hospital.

But you are right that I should have been more specific. So not pedantic at all. I have just been trying to shorten the Zoe reprts following requests in here to do so.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 8 last week

2266 cases - was 2007 last week

12.4% positivity - was 10.8% last week

496 patients - was 470 last week

45 ventilated - was 47 last week

 

[BlueHammer85]

WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 8 last week

2266 cases - was 2007 last week

12.4% positivity - was 10.8% last week

496 patients - was 470 last week

45 ventilated - was 47 last week

The head of the NHS in Wales has warned it's entering its "most challenging period" as it deals with rising waiting lists and COVID-19.

Dr Andrew Goodall says there are now record waiting times for treatments to begin, with more than 600,000 on lists, while A&E units are also under pressure.

The Welsh Ambulance Service has had to call in support from the military for the third time since the pandemic began.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

77 deaths with 18 North West - was 64 with 9 NW last week & 87 with 8 NW week before


- The NW death numbers are certainly a higher proportion than they were of late at the moment and this is clearly linked to the high ventilator numbers that have been rising the most in this region in the UK over the past week / 10 days & probably the high case numbers lately as in Greater Manchester. You will see that many of the daily deaths ARE coming day after day in the 10 boroughs.

Indeed the NW is the reason deaths are rising slightly week to week at the moment in England hospitals as if it were on the same track as the other regions it would be falling more than it still is slightly doing. The NW has so far slowed the fall not stopped the fall.

The last NINE 5 day death totals in England hospitals are now:- 53 - 57 - 55 - 55 - 51 - 55 - 50 - 55 - 53 - VERY flat

The day behind (9 OCT) is at 51 after 4 days so may yet continue that trend of a small week to week fall - though that 4 day numbers is slightly up on last week as have been the last 2 four day totals so it is hinting at a rise.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND 77 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By Region:-

East 4, London 14, Midlands 20, NE & Yorkshire 11, North West 18, South East 3, South West 7

Most by trust 5 in Havering

NW trusts:- 3 each in (North) Lancashire, Manchester & St Helens, 2 in Stockport and 1 each in Blackpool, Bolton, East Cheshire, Mid Cheshire, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) & Wirral

By age:-

40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (27), 80 PLUS (43)

THIS IS THE BIGGEST SKEW LATELY TO THE OVER 80s AND WILL BE A KEY REASON DEATHS WILL RISE IF - NOW WE ARE MIXING MUCH MORE - THE CASES MOSTLY COMING FROM SCHOOLCHILDREN AND NOT LEADING TO SERIOUS ILLNESS FOR THEM START TO SPREAD INTO OLDER FAMILY MEMBERS THEY MEET.

NOT TO MENTION THE CARE HOME ISSUE WHICH WE HAVE NO DATA ON FOR ENGLAND BUT HAS STARTED TO NOW BE A PROBLEM THAT IS RECURRING IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THAT HAD FALLEN TO A LOW LEVEL UP TO LAST WEEK.

NUMBERS THERE ARE HINTING AT BEING ON THE RISE AGAIN AND NUMBERS IN THE OLDER AGES IN THE WEEKLY CASES ARE TOO.

IF THIS IS HAPPENING IN OTHER UK NATIONS - AND I SUSPECT IT IS A PROBLEM IN THE NORTH WEST GIVEN THE DATA - WE ARE GOING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEATHS MORE WIDELY EVEN WITH JUST CURRENT CASE LEVELS.

VERY SURPRISED SO LITTLE ATTENTION IS GIVEN TO THIS NOW - ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FURORE RIGHTLY OVER THE HUGE MISTAKE EARLY IN THE PANDEMIC OF SENDING COVID PATIENTS OUT OF HOSPITAL TO HOMES TO INFECT OTHERS.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE SUMMARY TODAY


NOT A GOOD DAY. THE INEVITABLE HAPPENED AS BOTH ZOE AND THE REAL DATA HAVE BEEN POINTING UP FOR DAYS.

NORTH WEST NOW OFFICIALLY THE WORST AREA IN THE UK


PREDICTED CASES UP A TAD - But flat really ON 69, 993 - UP FROM 69, 860 AND 69, 845 - in past two days

ONGOING INFECTIONS - 958, 943 - UP FROM 953, 434 - a rise of 5509 after rises of 5390 & 5673 in past two days .

As you see it is VERY flat.

Though today is the first (small) day to day rise in 10 days - it was up day to day 15, 582 two weeks ago and HAD dropped every day since to 5390 before today's slight increase of 119.

Today week to week it us up from 905, 324 last Wednesday - a weekly rise of 53, 619 - WELL DOWN from the rise week to week of 61,427 yesterday.

A week ago the week to week rise was 104, 652 - So this trend looks to have been very clearly falling.

Ongoing case numbers will lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two.


Trends are all we can really read into the constantly tweaked data on Zoe these days,



Sadly as I predicted yesterday as it has become obvious on Zoe AND the real data NORTH WEST RISING UP daily has now made it all the way to the summit as the worst UK region today.

Current TOP THREE NUMBERS:-

NORTH WEST SADLY TOP OF THE TREE NOW BUT IS ONLY UP SLIGHTLY ON 1158 / 1490 FROM 1150 / 1479

EAST MIDLANDS Stays in second spot UP ON 1134 / 1507 FROM 1120 / 1490 which to me looks a bigger rise than the North West today so not sure how Zoe differentiate here. Though hard to argue NW is not the most infected in real data let alone Zoe right now.

WALES DOWN into third ON 1054 / 1489 FROM 1107 / 1547 - which is the third big fall lately


NORTH EAST , WEST MIDLANDS & YORKSHIRE are in 4th. 5th amd 6th.

THIS IS THE ENTIRE TOP TIER WATCH ZONE


And SCOTLAND remains clearly the best - and the only one in the LOWEST watch zone - but UP slightly too on 558/ 836 FROM 550 / 625



NORTHERN IRELAND and all the southern regions form the middle watch zone and rising, ONLY the South West (at 945) is not into 4 figures now on its second measure as the numbers rise everywhere and are closer together.



REGIONALLY:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool down under 13K and St Helens UP on 11K ~

BUT Warrington now well shooting up and just under 19K as highest in that area.



You will notice Blackpool deaths have started to appear often AND the numbers from the Fylde coast are up again today to some VERY high numbers - Fylde on 26, 149 & Wyre on 45, 594 - two of the hghest in the region. And Wyre is one of the highest if not the highest in the UK.


Though the Lake District is now happily falling a lot Lancaster/Morecambe is still very high on 25K. But that is slightly down.



Cheshire East FALLS for fourth day running after several weeks of rises (on 16, 266 from 17, 296 v Cheshire West UP on 18, 544 FROM 17, 098 - Indeed Cheshire East finally below its neighbour to the west

Moreover with Stockport going UP to its highest in sone time again Cheshire East is now also BELOW Stockport for first time in over a month. Showing the big reversal in fortune of these two neighbour boroughs.


As for GM - Not a good day again for Stockport - up the most of all boroughs as othersfall. Not boding well for SK again if Zoe is as right as it was yesterday, We will see.

The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Tameside DOWN to 27K, Trafford DOWN to 24K. Stockport THE biggest riser again today up to 17K. Its highest for some time. Bolton up quite a bit too on 15K. With Salford just below up slightly on 15K. And Manchester down a tad on 14 K. Wigan also rises to mid 12K. Bury though is up again into 12K only just behind Wigan now. Oldham has fallen for a week now and drops into the lower watch zone in mid 9K. However, Rochdale falls again too and is currently the lowest in GM on just 7K - well clear of the rest.