Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Manc in London]

England hospital data today. Patients up 35 to 6027. Last Tuesday they were up 29 to 6123 - so as you see pretty flat now. North West up today 22 to 818 - last week up just 4.

North East & Yorkshire are the areas where patient numbers are really dropping day to day and week to week and are low in cases and on Zoe too.

London is the area rising the most at present. Indeed both it and South East have been so far ahead of the North West lately they both just overtook North West as the regions with the most cases across the full pandemic which had been North West due to its population density I guess from the start.

Anyone know the Omicron cases in these separate regions as they are behaving very differently at the moment?

I question the view that London has not had the most positives. Testing only started after it had ripped through the capital in March and April 2020. I just cannot see why the NW or any other region would have had more positives. In terms of population density, I would think it is much higher in London.

As for increased hospitalisations in London, I would suggest that is due to the much lower vaccination rates (first, second and boosters) in the capital.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

England hospital data today. Patients up 35 to 6027. Last Tuesday they were up 29 to 6123 - so as you see pretty flat now. North West up today 22 to 818 - last week up just 4.

North East & Yorkshire are the areas where patient numbers are really dropping day to day and week to week and are low in cases and on Zoe too.

London is the area rising the most at present. Indeed both it and South East have been so far ahead of the North West lately they both just overtook North West as the regions with the most cases across the full pandemic which had been North West due to its population density I guess from the start.

Anyone know the Omicron cases in these separate regions as they are behaving very differently at the moment?

dont hospital numbers go up every Tuesday, and the fall week to week is still just under a hundred. Hospital numbers have been falling the past 2 months contrary to the predictions of the experts. Lets just hope they are wrong aswel with this latest strain.

 

[Healdplace]

I question the view that London has not had the most positives. Testing only started after it had ripped through the capital in March and April 2020. I just cannot see why the NW or any other region would have had more positives. In terms of population density, I would think it is much higher in London.

As for increased hospitalisations in London, I would suggest that is due to the much lower vaccination rates (first, second and boosters) in the capital.

It is not a view as such - it is the official recorded number of cases. That's what I am referring to. It might be true that cases were missed early days when the pandemicfirst started and testng was sparse. But they were missed everywhere I expect. Might even be true they did more in London when they were rare.

If you lived in the NW during the whole pandemic I do not think it would be hard to see why it had recorded most cases as I think I can confidently say the NW has been in lockdown for longer than London as it was in near total lockdown last Summer and Autumn before the winter wave locked the nation down. It had a wave between July and October that never really got down south. GM and Lancashire particularly were in restrictions for months on end as Merseyside was exempted in the autumn wave for pioneering a testing strategy for the government. Merseyside paid the price in December/January when London did get a wave of the Kemt variant as it was first called as Merseyside then got the cases they missed in the autumn.

 

[Healdplace]

dont hospital numbers go up every Tuesday, and the fall week to week is still just under a hundred. Hospital numbers have been falling the past 2 months contrary to the predictions of the experts. Lets just hope they are wrong aswel with this latest strain.

No they used to go up Mondays as admissions from over the weekend are high on Mondays and so they still do but then fall back midweek. But Tuesday was a bit of a transition day and has risen the last two weeks as the drops slowed right down week to week so it had less margin for error.

The full hospital report is on the data thread - but I have started to post the headlines in here given these numbers are so important. Much more so than cases.

But you can read all the numbers across the past week or two in there and see how they have tracked since the other thread was created.

Numbers are still down today week to week but that fall has been slowing for several weeks and is just 6123 to 6027 today. Just 96. Last week it was 132. Week before 366. Week before 549.

A clear downward track toward a virtual standstill now.

It is very slow though and not escalating yet. But looking close.

Hospital numbers in the UK are down today.By 3. They fell in all nations bar N Ireland.

Most hospital numbers in England are very flat right now.

 

[Healdplace]

HERE ARE TODAYS UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6027 , N IRELAND 317 , SCOTLAND 576 , WALES 417 UK TOTAL 7337 (DOWN 3)

Scotland and Wales down - England and N Ireland up



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 779 , N IRELAND 28, SCOTLAND 38 , WALES 37 UK TOTAL 882 (DOWN 25)

All down bar N Ireland which stayed level

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

No they used to go up Mondays as admissions from over the weekend are high on Mondays and so they still do but then fall back midweek. But Tuesday was a bit of a transition day and has risen the last two weeks as the drops slowed right down week to week so it had less margin for error.

The full hospital report is on the data thread - but I have started to post the headlines in here given these numbers are so important. Much more so than cases.

But you can read all the numbers across the past week or two in there and see how they have tracked since the other thread was created.

Numbers are still down today week to week but that fall has been slowing for several weeks and is just 6123 to 6027 today. Just 96. Last week it was 132. Week before 366. Week before 549.

A clear downward track toward a virtual standstill now.

It is very slow though and not escalating yet. But looking close.

Hospital numbers in the UK are down today.By 3. They fell in all nations bar N Ireland.

Most hospital numbers in England are very flat right now.

thanks for the detailed response Healdplace.

 

[BlueAnorak]

That is good news. Thanks.

As well as Boosters of course.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Got to say, every single time I think we can see an end in sight, or at least a half acceptable state, it comes back again one way or another.

Right now it's like a bad dream, almost a doppleganger for last year, new variant popping up and cases looking likely to spike up towards Christmas.

At least thanks to vaccines we're way down on deaths. Currently 3x as many cases, about 1/4 of the death toll compared to this time last year.

The new MSD antivirals to be given to the newly sick from Jan will knock serious infections down by 50%.
Let's hope that:
- They work similarly for Omicron
- Current Omicron severity being reported in SA in sumner applies in the UK in winter.

Then there are other antivirals from Pfizer and AZ that are supposed to be more effective.
It's not all bad news.

 

[Manc in London]

It is not a view as such - it is the official recorded number of cases. That's what I am referring to. It might be true that cases were missed early days when the pandemicfirst started and testng was sparse. But they were missed everywhere I expect. Might even be true they did more in London when they were rare.

If you lived in the NW during the whole pandemic I do not think it would be hard to see why it had recorded most cases as I think I can confidently say the NW has been in lockdown for longer than London as it was in near total lockdown last Summer and Autumn before the winter wave locked the nation down. It had a wave between July and October that never really got down south. GM and Lancashire particularly were in restrictions for months on end as Merseyside was exempted in the autumn wave for pioneering a testing strategy for the government. Merseyside paid the price in December/January when London did get a wave of the Kemt variant as it was first called as Merseyside then got the cases they missed in the autumn.

Making one assumption on incomplete data is no better than making another assumption. I was making the point that there is no logical basis why the NW would have more cases than London. Happy to hear opposing viewpoints that open my eyes but I doubt what you claim explains it.

As for early on in the pandemic, there boroughs with triple digit deaths before there were even a handful of deaths in boroughs in GM. That would clearly indicate several thousand more cases in London. Unless you think the fatality rate is much higher with Londoners.

To be honest, I doubt the validity of the positive test data as it stands. It does not explain things like why Barnet has consistently had more cases (per 100k) than the borough next door.

 

[unicorn]

plenty more to come! Wait until you see Manchester’s skyline in 3 years.

Manchester looks magnificent now, will only get better with the completion of the town hall and new skyline, and it;s been a joy to see it so busy in the evenings (not just match day either). My lad moved to Piccadilly this year, works near Albert Square, and loves it. Best city in the world.