Healdplace
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 12 May 2013
- Messages
- 15,985
I am no fan of much of the way data is collected and reported and it has changed and improved acrss the 21 months and so not easy to directly compare then with now. But I can only report what the data reports. am not a scientist or statistician so have no expertise in judging the numbers other than closely having followed them since March 2020 and kept lots of data records.Making one assumption on incomplete data is no better than making another assumption. I was making the point that there is no logical basis why the NW would have more cases than London. Happy to hear opposing viewpoints that open my eyes but I doubt what you claim explains it.
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To be honest, I doubt the validity of the positive test data as it stands. It does not explain things like why Barnet has consistently had more cases (per 100k) than the borough next door.
The numbers say what they say but I do not know the hows and whys. I simply noted what is a fact that the high cases for a week or two in London and relatvely low numbers in the NW had seen South East and London overtake the North West in the overall totals on the same day this week.
It is more than possible NW will escalate and regain the lead on this measure. But that is all it is the official government numbers. I think we would agree that many many cases were and still are never recorded in those numbers for all sorts of reasons and that tday there likely were nothing like the 45,691 cases tallied and might be closer to the Zoe estimate for the true number today which was 82,524.