Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

Hopefully this guy is right

I hope so too. I think we should be careful about concluding that it's intrinsically mild. Perhaps it is better to say that those who are vaccinated or have been infected will should expect to experience mild symptoms. That is a different conclusion. Does it have any consequence? I am not sure it will given our level of vaccination / infection.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Hopefully this guy is right

Will Omicron give you enough natural immunity against Delta? If it does, this could be Covid’s endgame.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Hopefully this guy is right

Well, we all *hope* so, but this is a curve fitting exercise without physical understanding doing the rounds on the Internet because it tells people what they want to hear.

It's authored by an engineer associated with a group (PANDA) still promoting treatments either unproven (ivermectin) or proven not to work (HCQ).

Treat with extreme scepticism.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think we should be careful about concluding that it's intrinsically mild

Yeah, it's probably more likely that the population currently exposed to it has more immunity than the population exposed to previous waves in SA. Because of prior infection, vaccination and age profile.

We can *hope* the virus is intrinsically less severe, but there's not yet any evidence for that.

What we do know is that we can still change the immunity of our population through vaccinating and boosters.

That's the way to try and get through this without severe restrictions or hospital overload: vaccinate and boost as fast as possible.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Given how vital boosters are, a snapshot for a few major Western countries.

We're doing exceptionally well.

USA is fucked. Omicron will almost certainly kill a lot of people there - they have a low vax rate and a low booster rate

Germany coming up on the rails.

Godspeed to everyone involved.

 

[Marvin]

Given how vital boosters are, a snapshot for a few major Western countries.

We're doing exceptionally well.

USA is fucked. Omicron will almost certainly kill a lot of people there - they have a low vax rate and a low booster rate

Germany coming up on the rails.

Godspeed to everyone involved.

View attachment 31488

If we have the supply, why are we not doing this in the millions per day?

 

[come-on-barney]

The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.

Do we know anything about Moderna booster efficacy yet?

 

[Marvin]

Do we know anything about Moderna booster efficacy yet?

Lancet

I didn't read it but looks relevant

 

[hilts]

Plan B was rushed for reasons we all know about.

I was and still am totally with limiting social contact whilst Omicron is investigated to an extent where we can make informed decisions.

Especially if it guarantees a Christmas with our loved ones.

Indoor concerts being allowed, but office work not is baffling.

There was a good point made this morning on tv by someone whose name escapes me. People are looking at the rules and are judging them based on effectiveness at reducing spread Only, this is only natural. However they said the govt(spit) are taking a broader approach.

Spread of the virus
Economics
Mental health

I understand this tbh especially after the length of time we have been affected by the virus.

In bluehammers case for instance he stays at home but gets the work done, he gets paid company makes money etc....

He goes out at night by choice, he’s free the duck it.

Now if he went to work that’s is a no benefit risk. Cancelling a concert is a benefit in terms of spreading the virus but a negative in the other areas.

Is the balance right? Who knows, could anyone possible work out every scenario certainly not.

The hope is that enough people will work from home, wear masks and stay at home to keep the hospitals from being overrun , they may get lucky with the variant anyhow.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

There was a good point made this morning on tv by someone whose name escapes me. People are looking at the rules and are judging them based on effectiveness at reducing spread Only, this is only natural. However they said the govt(spit) are taking a broader approach.

Spread of the virus
Economics
Mental health

I understand this tbh especially after the length of time we have been affected by the virus.

In bluehammers case for instance he stays at home but gets the work done, he gets paid company makes money etc....

He goes out at night by choice, he’s free the duck it.

Now if he went to work that’s is a no benefit risk. Cancelling a concert is a benefit in terms of spreading the virus but a negative in the other areas.

Is the balance right? Who knows, could anyone possible work out every scenario and be certainly not.

The hope is that enough people will work from home, wear masks and stay at home to keep the hospitals from being overrun , they may get lucky with the variant anyhow.

Yeah, makes sense.

I think that if they’d communicated it better. Ie We have a new variant that looks like a super-spreader and we don‘t yet know the virulence of it yet, so we are asking people to be cautious and only go out where necessary whilst we gather the relevant information. This gives us the best chance of having the most normal Christmas we can possibly have.

I think people would have been on board with more.