Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

Not unreasonable to suggest that Scotland will be back in triple figures soon for number of daily infections. Sounds incredible that I'm saying this given it would still represent a really high number and needs to keep driving down but its a far cry than the 2700 or so from a few weeks ago.

 

[Marvin]

Latest data from the ONS

Despite media reports about young people in hospitals, it's very much the old that are hit. This won't surprise people.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Finally a little explanation on what the 33% efficacy of first jab in the Israeli study meant.

1. Data only available to 18 days post first dose.
2. Shows no change to day 12 compared to unvaccinated then 33% less cases per capita each day from day 14 - day 18 if vaccinated.



My take:

1. Good news - the vaccine is indeed reducing cases in the real world post first dose.
2. Bad news... these results are, as reported, not as good as those from the trial.

BUT

3. Not comparable to the trial (1): this includes asymptomatic and we don't know at what proportion, whereas trial was symptomatic only.
4. Far too short a time period to draw conclusions.
5. Not comparable to the trial (2): we have no idea to what extent vaccinated people take more risks, so may just reflect that once people are vaccinated they merrily go around licking other people for the sheer joy of it(!)
6. We don't know how serious these cases were, and reducing severity of infection is the main point of vaccination.

Overall: interesting, but not directly relevant either way to the UK one dose strategy, or long term efficacy.

All just my own views, not remotely definitive, treat with due scepticism.

 

[Claytop]

So, assuming the vaccine works sufficiently and we manage to bring cases down and keep them down but that it doesn’t stop transmission completely, when do you think testing will stop and also the need to isolate when you have it?

I suppose they’re linked, you won’t know for definite if you have it if there’s no testing but surely testing won’t go on indefinitely?

 

[bluemoon32]

I wouldn’t mind but there’s a greater than 50% chance they’ll be divorced in a few years anyway.

Maybe they should have waited and had the divorce party when we're clear of covid then

 

[Marvin]

Finally a little explanation on what the 33% efficacy of first jab in the Israeli study meant.

1. Data only available to 18 days post first dose.
2. Shows no change to day 12 compared to unvaccinated then 33% less cases per capita each day from day 14 - day 18 if vaccinated.



My take:

1. Good news - the vaccine is indeed reducing cases in the real world post first dose.
2. Bad news... these results are, as reported, not as good as those from the trial.

BUT

3. Not comparable to the trial (1): this includes asymptomatic and we don't know at what proportion, whereas trial was symptomatic only.
4. Far too short a time period to draw conclusions.
5. Not comparable to the trial (2): we have no idea to what extent vaccinated people take more risks, so may just reflect that once people are vaccinated they merrily go around licking other people for the sheer joy of it(!)
6. We don't know how serious these cases were, and reducing severity of infection is the main point of vaccination.

Overall: interesting, but not directly relevant either way to the UK one dose strategy, or long term efficacy.

All just my own views, not remotely definitive, treat with due scepticism.

Thanks. That doesn't sound too good re hopes about a sterilising effect in people i.e. reductions in tranmission. Perhaps that will come with the 2nd dose.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks. Blue Mooners have been very helpful and tell me more than l glean from the media.
You are very well informed as if you are still involved but a previous post made me think you were no longer working. I remember the use of the word' brava' so l am trying to be gentlemanly;)

Thank you for remembering that brava reference - but be as blunt as you like. Been around the block enough for it not to phase me out.

However, I am not 'involved' as such - only self informed because I have the time to do it and the inclination as I trust looking things up myself at source rather than what we get told in stage managed press conferences by politicians who present their own version of day to day reality - regardless of party of origin.

On and off I have been involved with the media and employed by both ITV and BBC (and Sky too) but it was on my terms not as their employee. This has given me some insight into how stories are told and how only occasionally are the facts more important than the presentation.

The editor of the News of the World taught me that long ago.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Sturgeon seems quite welcoming of this £500 suggestion to people who test positive. I can see what they're trying to do, and can understand the benefits, but I still have major concerns that people will use this to try and get themselves infected or at the very least become complacent. Potential to backfire hugely has it not?

 

[Marvin]

Worth noting from that ONS data that the % people infected who are over 70 is really low so the vaccine is not going to have much effect yet on the rate of new infections. We can expect it to reduce transmission.

A second point which doesn't matter now but will matter in time:

When the over 80s and over 70s they go back home. What do you do when the over 50s get vaccinated? That wont be too far away. This group is going to want to get on with their life, and telling them no will be a lot harder than it is for over 80s

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Something else I've been thinking about, if the vaccine needs tweaking with variants in the virus like the flu one, we'll be on it 365 days a year with boosters etc. to get through the volume of people needing it.

Yeah, like getting car MOTs. Not a problem.