Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BobKowalski said:
Other news is that an additional Mordena plant is to come online in Switzerland and the EMA has approved Pfizer Covid vaccine storage at regular freezer temperature, instead of ultra-cold storage, for up to two weeks. This should help with the rollout.
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Quite surprised that the data are suggesting only 2 weeks of stability at 2-8°C.
 
Northern Ireland rolling 7 day cases by age group:

0 - 19 (237) 22.3%

20 - 39 (401) 37.9%

40 - 59 (295) 27.9%

60 - 79 (99) 9.4%

80 PLUS (26) 2.5%


As you can see the pattern we have seen in this data for some time continues and escalates.

11.9% only over 60 now testing positive. It was almost 30% a month or two back. Pre vaccination taking off.

And 60% under 40 - most not vaccinated even now is why.

The numbers from school age is far higher than it used to be because of all the testing.

Cases are rising because of those younger groups who are least likely to get sick and die.

THAT is the story. Not the R number.
 
blueparrot said:
They will be, but it was always going to be the case once they opened up, and as they are no plans to vaccinate children it will just be a thing that happens now.
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Nice 2 week break though now as well, not that there is a sting to be taken out by the looks of things, but it‘ll do no harm.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
"Casedemic". Got it.
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Stop being disingenuous.
You are fully aware of the point I am making. The cases data from last summer is not comparable over a period of time as it was contingent on a rapidly expanding number of tests performed.
The people going into hospital with Covid, was not.
Hence using the hospitalisation numbers from last summer as a more representative form of data.

So I refer back to my original point, there was no uptick in pandemic activity until the end of August last year, despite restrictions gradually loosening all summer.
 
Cases 6187 and all settings deaths 70

1, 252 , 705 pillar 1 & 2 tests - over half a million FEWER than yesterday for 210 less cases

The testing makes almost no difference to the numbers as they are going up and down by hundreds of thousands a day and the cases found are not changing much.

So most of the testing being done now - in schools primarily - is not finding many cases it seems as huge testing numbers make little difference.
 
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6187 is - though - a big rise on last Friday's 4802 but below the 6609 of two weeks ago.

There were 149 K MORE tests for that 4802 and 345 K MORE tests for the 6609 2 weeks ago

Up and down like a yo yo.

The testing is now all but impossible to directly relate to cases found as so many are in schools.
 
School testing done Wednesday and Sunday so makes sense there were that many fewer, assuming the tests number reported today is for Thursday.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Most cases are in schools. But testing is keeping a lid on it with R0 still under 1 (just).
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Perhaps to be expected as most secondary students are doing a test twice a week. Primary seem fine - probably because they are not tested. Bit of a spike in 35-49yr olds (parents of school kids).
 
Bluewonder said:
So I refer back to my original point, there was no uptick in pandemic activity until the end of August last year, despite restrictions gradually loosening all summer.
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And your original point remains entirely wrong.

Cases (seven day average) bottomed out at 354, July 6th.

They rose over the next two months to 1833 on Sept 6th.

That's a roughly 5 fold increase. I'd say that was a pretty significant uptick!

Testing (7 day average again) over the same period only rose from 115,000 to 192,000, not remotely to the same degree. And you wouldn't expect a linear testing to positives either, of course.

The pandemic grew throughout last summer in the UK once restrictions were at their minimum. It's just a fact.

Numbers from ourworldindata, feel free to check it out.
 
mexico1970 said:
Germany reporting a border lockdown now too.
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We're finally getting better here and numbers have come down almost 50% in the last couple of weeks.

Trouble is the govt is now talking about opening schools again and then it will go back up. I really don't want my daughter back at school until I have been vaccinated as I was on the extremely vulnerable list in the UK.

I get why they want to do it (my daughter has been at school about 6 weeks total since last March) but I hope they really get the numbers down before opening schools up again. We might no longer have the worst cases to population rate in the EU but we're not far off it in 2nd place.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
And your original point remains entirely wrong.

Cases (seven day average) bottomed out at 354, July 6th.

They rose over the next two months to 1833 on Sept 6th.

That's a roughly 5 fold increase. I'd say that was a pretty significant uptick!

Testing (7 day average again) over the same period only rose from 115,000 to 192,000, not remotely to the same degree. And you wouldn't expect a linear testing to positives either, of course.

The pandemic grew throughout last summer in the UK once restrictions were at their minimum. It's just a fact.

Numbers from ourworldindata, feel free to check it out.
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You ever thought about going outside for ten minutes or so? Don’t think I’ve ever seen you post on a thread other than this.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
We're finally getting better here and numbers have come down almost 50% in the last couple of weeks.

Trouble is the govt is now talking about opening schools again and then it will go back up. I really don't want my daughter back at school until I have been vaccinated as I was on the extremely vulnerable list in the UK.

I get why they want to do it (my daughter has been at school about 6 weeks total since last March) but I hope they really get the numbers down before opening schools up again. We might no longer have the worst cases to population rate in the EU but we're not far off it in 2nd place.
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Here's hoping you can get your jab soon mate, it's a fine line we have to tread I hope they make the right decisions for us all.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
And your original point remains entirely wrong.

Cases (seven day average) bottomed out at 354, July 6th.

They rose over the next two months to 1833 on Sept 6th.

That's a roughly 5 fold increase. I'd say that was a pretty significant uptick!

Testing (7 day average again) over the same period only rose from 115,000 to 192,000, not remotely to the same degree. And you wouldn't expect a linear testing to positives either, of course.

The pandemic grew throughout last summer in the UK once restrictions were at their minimum. It's just a fact.

Numbers from ourworldindata, feel free to check it out.
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Cases low as a 7 day moving average: 583 on July 4th.
Cases at 24th August - the point at which hospitalisations started to increase: 1181.

Essentially a doubling, which is consistent with the rise in testing.

The genuine increase in the spread of the activity, as I said yesterday, was at the end of August, when hospitalisations started to increase.

Is that clear enough for you?
 
Regional Summary

SOUTH

Modest ups and downs no real pattern. All under 600 still.

East down 56 to 432

London down 97 to 501

South East up 21 to 561

South West down 27 to 269



MIDLANDS

Up by modest sums and both hovering round 600.

East up 35 to 594

West up 60 to 602


NORTH

Up or down small numbers here with Yorkshire still the most infected region by about 300.

North East down 12 to 428

Yorkshire up 10 to 1064

AND

North West up 20 to 767

The North West numbers in past couple of weeks are the definition of a flatline:-

739 - 733 - 788 - 805 - (386*) - 770 - 894 - 886 - 738 - 631 - 747 - 767


* That number - 7 days ago - stands out as odd. As I noticed at the time. And it was. A lot of under reporting on tests occurred that created the two high 800 numbers on the two subsequent days by adding the missing 300 or so cases on.

Unfortunately a lot of that under reporting was in Greater Manchester which had an absurdly low score of just 187 with some daft numbers from all boroughs.

Equally unfortunately THAT is the 7 day comparison for today in Greater Manchester.

So the data will look quite bad when in reality it is not up much versus the true total that should have been reported seven days ago.

Pop scores will mostly go up today though as a consequence. But not a real indicator of the trend and will hopefully self correct from tomorrow.
 
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