Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Chippy_boy said:
What does that mean exactly? That there are as many people under 60 in ICU as over 60? I am certain that is not true, so I am puzzled as to how that stat is derived.
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It means it's barely different than the first lockdown.
It is otherwise meaningless unless they tell us the distribution type (binomial, normal, poisson, etc) and the upper quartile age (75% of people in ICU are below this age) and the lower quartile (25% of people in ICU are below this age).
 
BlueAnorak said:
It means it's 10 years lower than for the first lockdown.
It is otherwise meaningless unless they tell us the distribution type (binomial, normal, poisson, etc) and the upper quartile age (75% of people in ICU are below this age) and the lower quartile (25% of people in ICU are below this age).
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No, the reference says median 58 first lockdown, 60 second lockdown.

Need to emphasise this is ICU, not total hospital beds - the median age overall in hospital with COVID is much higher (don't have a figure to hand, but maybe as high as 80 from memory). The older patients die without being admitted to ICU.
 
NeilYoungIsBack said:
But Wales hasn't had tiers for months now, but the same type of pattern of spatial spread of the disease has been recently occurring in Wales as it has done in England over a similar time period.
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Correct - statistically is has made no difference except to keep more businesses open than would otherwise be.
The idea of tiering works. What hasn't worked is leaving areas in lower tiers for too long.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No, the reference says median 58 first lockdown, 60 second lockdown.

Need to emphasise this is ICU, not total hospital beds - the median age overall in hospital with COVID is much higher (don't have a figure to hand, but maybe as high as 80 from memory). The older patients die without being admitted to ICU.
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I corrected myself. I was looking at overall death stats. Lower age this time round for a whole pile of reasons including shielding, care homes getting there act together etc etc.
 
Once they have vaccinated everyone they can there will still be just under 20% of the population unvaccinated - everyone 16 and under.
 
twosips said:
Yeah I think that's fair.
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That particular article is more ambiguous but that was my thoughts as well, however, unless I missed it there was no data provided on what the time lines were between the jab being administered and the patient falling seriously ill (missing other data on the existing health of those 17% as well).

roubaixtuesday said:
Impossible to interpret that stat with the information provided.
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I also read this from an FT article yesterday where Australian scientists are cautioning against the Astra Zeneca vaccine in favour of PFZ but the article goes on to say that the CMO in Australia still backs the AZN one. Hard to tell if this has a political angle attached to it as well... Murky world of big pharmaceutical companies and governments - great bedfellows!

https://www.ft.com/content/8def3a81-9b80-46a1-9742-f64b80bfc74f


A group of Australian scientists has called on the government to review its Covid-19 immunisation strategy over concerns that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was not effective enough to generate herd immunity. Several immunologists and the opposition Labor party said on Wednesday Canberra should seek additional supplies of the BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which trials show have higher efficacy — a measure of prevention of infection or severe disease — than the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab.
 
marcus said:
When in your opinion will slight normality return ?
I mean pubs open (if only with a scotch egg etc) , holidays etc.

ps i know the above is literally so low down on the problems we have at the mo. Im just inquiring. Getting that in before a certain someone jumps all over it, as is his usual want
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Too many variables to know!

I would personally advocate keeping cases robustly below 1000 until everyone is vaccinated. We did that last summer (July), and it should be easier this time - more immunity from infection, more immunity from vaccination, more understanding of transmission.

But what the govt strategy is we have no idea. I fear, yet again, they'll open up too soon and we'll get wave 3 sweeping the middle aged.

How much vaccination or previous infection protects against transmission isn't known.

How many people will take up the vaccine isn't known.

I don't think we'll be able to have "normal" pubs until after the summer. I hope we'll have pubs open with social distancing after Easter, and pretty confident by Spring Bank Holiday.
 
Mike Cledford said:
Joan Bakewell the Lady Pretentious of Hazel Grove and another old dubber threatening legal action against the government because she has not yet had her second. Perhaps they would like to nominate some old ladies they know to give up their first jabs for them.
Selfish cows.
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She should count herself lucky that she's had her first. My dad lives in Marple so not a million miles away from Hazel Grove. He's 81 and has underlying health conditions, COPD being one, and as of last weekend he hadn't had his first jab yet, let alone notification of when it will be. In fact, as of last weekend he was saying that to his knowledge despite having quite a large elderly population nobody in Marple had received a jab as they were still waiting for supplies to be delivered, but that was going to happen this week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very little chance of R<1 at that point.

Manchester isn't the whole country.

But if R<1, cases will reduce to a very low level even if restrictions are lifted.

So the strategy we should follow is the same either way: don't lift restrictions until cases are low. If you're right, that will happen naturally. If not, restrictions should stay until cases are low.
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The problem we have now is not that the R value is sky high, but that the numbers infected grew steadily over an extended period of time to the point where ~1 million people were infected in the UK and hence there are large numbers of people are being infected each day.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
Once they have vaccinated everyone they can there will still be just under 20% of the population unvaccinated - everyone 16 and under.
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Worry more about vaccine uptake.

We can control the epidemic with vaccines but we can't eliminate it unless there is widespread uptake of vaccines. The picture around the globe is highly patchy.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Too many variables to know!

I would personally advocate keeping cases robustly below 1000 until everyone is vaccinated. We did that last summer (July), and it should be easier this time - more immunity from infection, more immunity from vaccination, more understanding of transmission.

But what the govt strategy is we have no idea. I fear, yet again, they'll open up too soon and we'll get wave 3 sweeping the middle aged.

How much vaccination or previous infection protects against transmission isn't known.

How many people will take up the vaccine isn't known.

I don't think we'll be able to have "normal" pubs until after the summer. I hope we'll have pubs open with social distancing after Easter, and pretty confident by Spring Bank Holiday.
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Thatll do me

ive loads going on at the mo and i could do with nothing more than a pint and chat with a pal
Not too much to desire in life is it
 
M18CTID said:
She should count herself lucky that she's had her first. My dad lives in Marple so not a million miles away from Hazel Grove. He's 81 and has underlying health conditions, COPD being one, and as of last weekend he hadn't had his first jab yet, let alone notification of when it will be. In fact, as of last weekend he was saying that to his knowledge despite having quite a large elderly population nobody in Marple had received a jab as they were still waiting for supplies to be delivered, but that was going to happen this week.
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My Mum and Dad live in New Mills. Two stops on the train from Marple. My Dad had the vaccine last weekend, and my Mum has it tomorrow. Lottery tickets
 
Initial studies of data from Israel's vaccination drive suggest that the first dose of the Pfizer jab curbs coronavirus infections by up to 50 percent after 14 days.

The news offers a ray of hope to the rest of the world as initial studies point to the vaccine not only stopping symptoms, but cutting the risk of infection as well.

With Israel rolling out the world's fastest vaccination programme, giving the first dose to almost 20 percent of its population, studies of hundreds of thousands of people offer perhaps the most extensive real-world data on the vaccine's efficacy.
 
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