Coronavirus (2021) thread

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paulchapo said:
I'm trying, I really am trying to keep positive but I have reached real low points just recently. This announcement overnight that anyone lying about where they've travelled from can be imprisoned for TEN years astonished me. How can this be possible without parliamentary discussion and a vote? Yet all over the country pandemic or not kids are stabbing and killing one another and I don't see such a huge response to stop that.

It's the constant lies and shifting of the goalposts too. Just six weeks, just three months, just until we have a vaccine, just until the vulnerable are vaccinated, now it's when EVERYONE is vaccinated and as if that's not enough it's now when the whole world is vaccinated. It's like psychological torture.
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I can understand why you feel this way. My own view is that the government have handled this crisis pretty poorly - the main mistake was them being too slow to shut things down - e.g. letting the SE continue to go to pubs and shop for much of the autumn/winter. However, they seem to have got the vaccination programme spot-on so far.

I would say the middle of February with thousands in hospital is not the best point to view what things will be like in two or three months time. When cases numbers get below 7000 and there are less than 15000 people in hospital, things will start to change. Looking at the graphs, we can all see that this is coming in the next month or two.

Plus, it's probably occurred to the government/scientists that the best way to see if the vaccines are truly working is to give people a bit more freedom and see what happens.
 
paulchapo said:
I'm trying, I really am trying to keep positive but I have reached real low points just recently. This announcement overnight that anyone lying about where they've travelled from can be imprisoned for TEN years astonished me. How can this be possible without parliamentary discussion and a vote? Yet all over the country pandemic or not kids are stabbing and killing one another and I don't see such a huge response to stop that.

It's the constant lies and shifting of the goalposts too. Just six weeks, just three months, just until we have a vaccine, just until the vulnerable are vaccinated, now it's when EVERYONE is vaccinated and as if that's not enough it's now when the whole world is vaccinated. It's like psychological torture.
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Keep your chin up Paul,we’re going to win the league imagine how the dippers feel when they get back in the stadium they won’t be champions having not seen their team lift the trophy, now if that thought doesn’t cheer you up:)
 
Blue Maverick said:
So they walk in stay in their room for 10 days and it’s cleaned when they leave are you telling me it costs over £1000 per person to do this? Maybe i should apply for a job as a cleaner then.
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Depends how many are staying in the hotel and the cost of running the hotel. Besides the plan will be the hotels stay empty, and the cost will be a big enough deterrent. The case could be though a Hotel stays open for one person.
 
hammocity said:
The government has been very liberal, it's a situation without precedent for all of us living through this. The feckless amongst our society have made this an almost impossible task at times and hopefully lessons will have been learnt. My main point was don't be too pessimistic, our law of democracy will always prevail in the end, there's no military Junta in place to impose martial law or declare a state of emergency.
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In Victoria a state of disaster was declared after a state of emergency was imposed which we are still under both passed without due process in both houses as is required under law.

In practical terms the police and the other enforcement personnel were given the power to arrest you if you refused to wear a mask and refused to let police into your home if they suspected you were not isolating or quarantining properly.

This in itself was counter productive and risked spreading the virus but was designed to spread the fear of not abiding by the law no matter how draconian or inappropriate the law and its enforcement might be.

Very few of the fines have actually been paid and the government in Victoria a far left leaning government with a mantra of taxing the individual as much as possible , being as soft on traditional forms of crime as is possible and kowtowing to the CCP as much as is possible.
 
RobMCFC said:
I can understand why you feel this way. My own view is that the government have handled this crisis pretty poorly - the main mistake was them being too slow to shut things down - e.g. letting the SE continue to go to pubs and shop for much of the autumn/winter. However, they seem to have got the vaccination programme spot-on so far.

I would say the middle of February with thousands in hospital is not the best point to view what things will be like in two or three months time. When cases numbers get below 7000 and there are less than 15000 people in hospital, things will start to change. Looking at the graphs, we can all see that this is coming in the next month or two.

Plus, it's probably occurred to the government/scientists that the best way to see if the vaccines are truly working is to give people a bit more freedom and see what happens.
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I agree totally that nowhere should be opened up until April at the earliest. We have come this far we might as well grit our teeth and carry on a bit longer to hopefully get some normality back.

I understand the mods trying to keep politics out of it but that's almost impossible because ultimately what's happening regarding the virus involves the government's actions too, they are bound together.
 
Indaparkside said:
Keep your chin up Paul,we’re going to win the league imagine how the dippers feel when they get back in the stadium they won’t be champions having not seen their team lift the trophy, now if that thought doesn’t cheer you up:)
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Our return to form and beating the dippers has been the one bright spot, long may it continue.
 
Wales vaccination update:

655. 419 first doses given - 26, 659 yesterday - up from 24. 784 day before

3687 second doses given - 196 yesterday - down from 699
 
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

1612958938924.png

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...

Just as an aside on the dangers of ascribing causation to correlation, we can note that the falling trend here almost exactly coincides with City's winning run, which started on Dec 19th vs Southampton. And I don't think there's a correlation there! Nevertheless, it does look very hopeful.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...
this is great, but sadly barely visible in all settings deaths.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...
That is good news and matches the impressions I have been posting from the England hospital deaths every day for the past week or so when this effect started to become apparent in the numbers there.

Being the largest single day figure it is the most instructive - limited as it is given the large age ranges offered.

Always good to see reassurance that what we hoped for and appeared to be starting to see is - with the caveat you rightly apply - potentially happening.

What will be interesting to see is if the Scottish decision to vaccinate care homes first will reveal that over 80s deaths there fell before they did in England.

Certainly the high out of hospital numbers we are getting from England still imply that might be a factor.
 
shemnel said:
this is great, but sadly barely visible in all settings deaths.
Click to expand...

I've not looked at that data - my guess was that variation in care home outbreaks would mask a vaccine effect. Was it you that posted the visualisation of that data a few days ago?
 
paulchapo said:
I'm trying, I really am trying to keep positive but I have reached real low points just recently. This announcement overnight that anyone lying about where they've travelled from can be imprisoned for TEN years astonished me. How can this be possible without parliamentary discussion and a vote? Yet all over the country pandemic or not kids are stabbing and killing one another and I don't see such a huge response to stop that.

It's the constant lies and shifting of the goalposts too. Just six weeks, just three months, just until we have a vaccine, just until the vulnerable are vaccinated, now it's when EVERYONE is vaccinated and as if that's not enough it's now when the whole world is vaccinated. It's like psychological torture.
Click to expand...
I think we thought the spike protein would be conserved but it has not been so. The situation is not so bad. We can get rid of 99% of the current virus but its not clear how well we can keep in check the variants. We don't know how effective our vaccines are against them, and which we will end up using, and we don't know how quickly it's going to evolve. I think the uncertainty means we are likely to be in lockdown longer than we might have expected until it is clear how we can control the variants.
It is more important than ever to take the vaccines as it seems background transmission is likely to continue
 
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