Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Didn't realise I would be so buzzing by this news. I'm a practical person and understand there's hurdles to overcome yet. It's just the prospect of having a normal summer and my wedding going ahead in Autumn as planned is just so good. Just hope the numbers support the measures and we can crack on!
 
The England hospital data today is not a disaster and numbers are often odd on Mondays even when falling.

In the first two weeks numbers were falling from mid January numbers rose on Monday as patients coming in exceeded those going out.

Three weeks ago 427 patients were added but it fell back again from Tuesday onward

Two weeks ago even though numbers fell either side of it they went up 29 on the Monday

Last week was the first day it fell on every day before and after including Monday but only by 57 last Monday.

Today there was still a fall from yesterday but it was all of 3 (from 14, 140 to 14, 137).

Tomorrow will be a key day to see where we are heading.

Another caution. - East, South East and South West all fell by small numbers today.


But North West went up for the third day over the weekend - though by tiny numbers:-

2071 to 2072 to 2078 today.

Moreover NW Ventilators fell 284 to 272 to 256 - so that news is not a concern.

Hopefully it falls as it has been now for 3 weeks tomorrow as it did last Tuesday where numbers fell by 637 in England to 17, 093.

Not panicking. Just wary that we are in a place where things can tip either way. And there are first hints the good progress of the past 3 weeks might not be quite as it was.
 
Nellies left peg said:
My missus has got her vaccine on Saturday but they won't do me as her full time carer, so I asked for a late as possible appointment and will cheekily ask if there's any left over
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These are now being done. I had mine yesterday.
Get you NHS number and ring the local NHS vaccine booking line. When the line asks if you arein the criteria that is being done now, over 65 and whoever else press the button on the phone for that . When you get through, tell them you are the sole carer and you should get an appointment.
 
Mr Coopz said:
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Easy fodder for conspiracy types to say they want to reach an equilibrium of you spending money in a way that they can continuously reinstate lockdowns and prevent social mixing. Unleashing schools is an easy way to lock us back up. Stick it to the man!!

This is how one's brain goes when you've been stuck indoors for 5 months
 
Mr Coopz said:
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Here's the modelled pandemic that drives those conclusions from the report

1614018403034.png

And that's why the cautious and data driven emergence is so important - we don't want to end up on the purple curve.

The report does not include seasonality effects - not well enough understood to model - so might be pessimistic for summer, but equally optimistic for Autumn.

 
Greater Manchester News

Sorry to rain a little on the optimism in here but it was a pretty bad day for GM - which had the biggest chunk of the biggest regional rise in the UK today - or indeed this week.

And managed for the first time in over 3 months to raise its % to OVER 50% - at 50.1%

That is a rise in one day of 4.3% and has now almost doubled from just over 25% at the start of the year.

Greater Manchester is becoming an area of concern now. I do not think that is stretching it.

Cases up from 631 yesterday and 578 day before that to 964 - a 50% increase day to day - with nearly everywhere well up on this day last week. Several boroughs actually double this day last week.

Four boroughs in the 100s - with Manchester up 70 to 176, Bolton up 50 to 125, Stockport up 18 to 114 (both double this day last week so large Pop Score rises). And Wigan up 36 to 105 versus 88 last week.

Even the places with 'smaller' numbers were often twice last Monday. Even Trafford with its highest number in a month at 80 (though still increased its lead on Pop Score over Stockport given the latter borough's high numbers).

About the only place with a relatively non disastrous day was Oldham that was up 23 at 61 but that is only 4 up on last Monday.

Sorry not to have brighter news for GM locals on such an optimistic day.

But tomorrow is another one as they say. And it is only one set of numbers. Things can change in 24 hours.

Lets hope for better.
 
Healdplace said:
Regional Scoreboard:

Sadly another bad day for the North West.

Numbers up by more than ever - 547 - over half the entire UK rise! To 1926 - worst total in over a week.

Now more than double every single southern region that were 6 weeks ago thousands more than the NW right now.

London falls to 848, East to 729, South East to 995 and South West to 622.


Put it this way if Boris had announced tiers to come out of lockdown as many favoured when he dd it before - the NW would be in tier 4 and most of the south tier 2 at worst.

This is at a point where it might need addressing by local politicians as I am not convinced this is shifting any time soon.

The NW is now daily getting at least double the cases that Wales, Scotland or N Ireland is as a nation every day.

Yes NW is a big region and cases will never be at the level of - say - the South West or Northern Ireland is because of the population numbers.

But it is without doubt the UK problem child right now and someone locally needs to find a way to change that.
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Yet the kids are going back? Scandalous. Truth is people have already been meeting other households outside and lots of non-essential trips being made. Otherwise numbers wouldn’t be going up. Roll on 2022
 
Healdplace said:
Regional Scoreboard:

Sadly another bad day for the North West.

Numbers up by more than ever - 547 - over half the entire UK rise! To 1926 - worst total in over a week.

Now more than double every single southern region that were 6 weeks ago thousands more than the NW right now.

London falls to 848, East to 729, South East to 995 and South West to 622.


Put it this way if Boris had announced tiers to come out of lockdown as many favoured when he dd it before - the NW would be in tier 4 and most of the south tier 2 at worst.

This is at a point where it might need addressing by local politicians as I am not convinced this is shifting any time soon.

The NW is now daily getting at least double the cases that Wales, Scotland or N Ireland is as a nation every day.

Yes NW is a big region and cases will never be at the level of - say - the South West or Northern Ireland is because of the population numbers.

But it is without doubt the UK problem child right now and someone locally needs to find a way to change that.
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It is sad, but Boris said no more local lockdowns
 
antspider said:
So children, some very young are to be routinely tested even though they might not show symptoms or be ill.. Also all teaching staff and everyone else at the school will be vaccinated... Maybe I’m just not bright enough to see why these kids shouldn’t be put through this ..
Mine are all grown up, otherwise I would refuse to put them through this!!!
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Secondary kids only.
There is no intention to vaccinate all teachers.
 
antspider said:
So children, some very young are to be routinely tested even though they might not show symptoms or be ill.. Also all teaching staff and everyone else at the school will be vaccinated... Maybe I’m just not bright enough to see why these kids shouldn’t be put through this ..
Mine are all grown up, otherwise I would refuse to put them through this!!!
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This SAGE paper may help to clarify the implications of re-opening schools. The first 14 pages are clearly written and do touch on the concerns you have mentioned.

On the other hand, one detail that sounded ominous to me was that the "consensus view is that the opening of primary and secondary schools is likely to increase effective R by a factor of 1.1 to 1.5..."

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963381/S1102_Children_s_Task_and_Finish_Group_update_to_17th_December_2020_paper_on_children__schools_and_transmission.pdf

If you could direct me to a link demonstrating that school and support staff will be vaccinated before the 8th, as you mentioned, that would be much appreciated as it would surely make a difference.
 
brian the blue said:
Awful.

Can see us being back into lockdown by the end of May.
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Where is that coming from though I don’t get it. Are they implying the vaccines won’t work?? They’re was still restrictions last summer the same as this summer and there was barely any cases and deaths
 
Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester News

Sorry to rain a little on the optimism in here but it was a pretty bad day for GM - which had the biggest chunk of the biggest regional rise in the UK today - or indeed this week.

And managed for the first time in over 3 months to raise its % to OVER 50% - at 50.1%

That is a rise in one day of 4.3% and has now almost doubled from just over 25% at the start of the year.

Greater Manchester is becoming an area of concern now. I do not think that is stretching it.

Cases up from 631 yesterday and 578 day before that to 964 - a 50% increase day to day - with nearly everywhere well up on this day last week. Several boroughs actually double this day last week.

Four boroughs in the 100s - with Manchester up 70 to 176, Bolton up 50 to 125, Stockport up 18 to 114 (both double this day last week so large Pop Score rises). And Wigan up 36 to 105 versus 88 last week.

Even the places with 'smaller' numbers were often twice last Monday. Even Trafford with its highest number in a month at 80 (though still increased its lead on Pop Score over Stockport given the latter borough's high numbers).

About the only place with a relatively non disastrous day was Oldham that was up 23 at 61 but that is only 4 up on last Monday.

Sorry not to have brighter news for GM locals on such an optimistic day.

But tomorrow is another one as they say. And it is only one set of numbers. Things can change in 24 hours.

Lets hope for better.
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Think it’s fairly obvious that most of Greater Manchester are ignoring the rules and mixing?

Cases are going to explode when the schools return in 2 weeks.
 
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