Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Chippy_boy said:
Matt Hancock said so explicitly in January, and again on Feb 11th that it was too early to book holidays and that people should be patient. Subsequently, rather than being more bullish, the opposite is true and he's suggested as recently as yesterday that we don't know whether families will be able to travel abroad "from July".

Furthermore, on Monday shares in IAG and RR fell after the government (Helen Whately, social care minister) said "My advice would be to anybody right now is just to hold off on booking international travel."

Earlier this week, Boris Johnson: "All I can say is it’s just too early to say and my advice is to everybody to wait for the global travel task force to report."
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Ah right, I'm assuming you meant advice as in a formal standpoint, not just the opinions of a few in power.

The roadmap, set out by the Government, states a return of international travel no earlier than May 17th.
I think that is the correct advice to soak up, and not the off the cuff comments of individuals like Johnson and Hancock.
The roadmap is the Government advice.
The opinions of Hancock/Johnson is the opinions of Hancock/Johnson.

For clarity, I don't think it will return in much or any capacity by May 17th, but it is absolutely not going against anything or breaking laws to take a punt for then.

Probably wiser to await the findings from the travel task force first though.
 
jay_mcfc said:
Brits go from extreme confidence to extremely tetchy in short spaces of time, don’t they?

I don’t know about France or Germany but in Spain each autonomous region has the autonomy and power to administer the vaccine rollout as they wish. So tell me exactly why regions like Galicia and Andalusia, two places that will be absolutely desperate for a full tourist season this year, paused the rollout of the AZ vaccine? What have they got to gain from politicizing a vaccine?

Eventually other regions and then the whole country also suspended it. The tipping point was the death of a 43yo old woman in Andalusia who died shortly after having the vaccine.

This is all being so over hyped. Some European countries wanted to do some more testing after some abnormal results. They suspended the use of it and are now satisfied and back in full flow. A few days in the grand scheme of things isn’t the end of the world, time will be caught up and Spain still intends to vaccinate 70% of the population by the summer.

And in terms of this damaging the reputation of the vaccine, well those skeptics that aren’t just conspiracy nuts will be grateful for the extra testing, surely?!
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They were over-cautious IMO. There had been millions of AZ doses already administered at the point of suspension and only a handful of blood clots. Even if there proved to be a direct causal effect, logically it made no sense to pause, since the numbers of people vaccinated during that period would consequentially produce an even more tiny number of clots. But look at the infection numbers in Europe, the impact of not vaccinating could be very high. Not to mention the question mark this put in many peoples' minds about "is it safe". It was just silly IMO.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
Ah right, I'm assuming you meant advice as in a formal standpoint, not just the opinions of a few in power.

The roadmap, set out by the Government, states a return of international travel no earlier than May 17th.
I think that is the correct advice to soak up, and not the off the cuff comments of individuals like Johnson and Hancock.
The roadmap is the Government advice.
The opinions of Hancock/Johnson is the opinions of Hancock/Johnson.

For clarity, I don't think it will return in much or any capacity by May 17th, but it is absolutely not going against anything or breaking laws to take a punt for then.

Probably wiser to await the findings from the travel task force first though.
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What a waste of time these discussions are.

I made the comment that it was stupid of Simon Calder to be saying "Off you go and book your holidays". And after long posts, you conclude:

"Probably wiser to await the findings etc".

Well yes, I agree.

(And BTW, no-one mentioned the law. Well I didn't - that was you. I said it was not advised.)
 
Chippy_boy said:
They were over-cautious IMO. There had been millions of AZ doses already administered at the point of suspension and only a handful of blood clots. Even if there proved to be a direct causal effect, logically it made no sense to pause, since the numbers of people vaccinated during that period would consequentially produce an even more tiny number of clots. But look at the infection numbers in Europe, the impact of not vaccinating could be very high. Not to mention the question mark this put in many peoples' minds about "is it safe". It was just silly IMO.
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I don’t disagree in general. I just don’t see what regions in Spain that are as desperate as anyone to get back to normal this summer would pause the rollout without doing it in the best of intentions. I’m pretty sure they couldn’t give a fuck about where the vaccine was invented.
 
Healdplace said:
Hospital data is OK news. Numbers have fallen in England again in both patients and ventilators - though the NW fall is still on the slow side it did go down in both today also by 26 and 2 respectively.

Just failed to go sub 4000 in England - down 240 in day to 4005 patients. Ventilators fell by 34 to 613.

Full breakdown by regions and UK later as usual.
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Good steady progress on hospitalisation makes the stalling of cases much less relevant to our assessment of the impact of schools reopening, I hope.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
Where is the government advice saying not to book holidays?

It is currently illegal to travel abroad for leisure reasons, it is absolutely NOT illegal to book a foreign holiday.
Just like it isn't illegal to book a gig ticket even though those types of events aren't permitted yet and are also subject to the unknown.

Had he been telling people to go to the airport and jump on a flight then yes that would be wholly irresponsible, but he wasn't.

I saw the clip (Calder really divides the industry)....he was probably being a bit OTT on his confidence of things being ok but the sentiment of his message was correct; if you book a package holiday through a reputable agency/tour operator then there are, ultimately, 2 eventualities.....it goes ahead and you have your holiday, or it gets cancelled by the operator and you can claim a full refund.

His comment about a refund within 14 days was unnecessary....technically yes as that's what the law states if you are cancelled by the operator, but in reality it can be longer than that as you've experienced yourself. Things are a bit better on that front this year, and the main players like Jet2/TUI are relatively quick with the refunds. Some are still slow though.

I must point out though that he didn't say the customer can cancel and get a refund, it would have to be cancelled by the operator for a refund entitlement.

International leisure travel will restart at some point, be that in May, July, October or 2022.
Many people are looking forward to its resumption when permitted by the Government.
Just like people are looking forward to having a pint down their local, or going to watch a film at the cinema when things like that are again permitted by the Government.

If people want to take a punt on a responsibly booked package holiday, gig, event, whatever this summer then good for them and crack on.
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Pretty much this. It's a punt but it's not an unreasonable one. Solely because if they do say on May 17th or whenever it is that they are allowing foreign travel again, the prices for holidays will rocket. Take the chance now whilst it's a bit cheaper.
 
jay_mcfc said:
I don’t disagree in general. I just don’t see what regions in Spain that are as desperate as anyone to get back to normal this summer would pause the rollout without doing it in the best of intentions. I’m pretty sure they couldn’t give a fuck about where the vaccine was invented.
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Surely that was just the domino effect though? Germans and French stopped, so we will just follow until we hear otherwise as it seemed the logical step.
 
Chippy_boy said:
What a waste of time these discussions are.

I made the comment that it was stupid of Simon Calder to be saying "Off you go and book your holidays". And after long posts, you conclude:

"Probably wiser to await the findings etc".

Well yes, I agree.

(And BTW, no-one mentioned the law. Well I didn't - that was you. I said it was not advised.)
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If you're thinking of booking as early as May then yes I'd say wait for this task force review but equally I wouldn't put anyone off a punt as long as its booked correctly. Lets be honest, if you're booking for May then its in hope not expectation.

If you're thinking further into summer then fill your boots, as Calder was saying.

Book responsibly and the risk is minimal.

You're saying Calder was irresponsible and going against Government advice; the first bit is subjective (I don't think he was but could see why some might think that) but the 2nd part absolutely wasn't true.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I am sure that's why they have not been even more explicit. I am sure they wanted to say "Fuck No", but realise just how damaging that would be to said industry.

But the advice they are getting from Sage is that international travel this summer is looking extremely unlikely.
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Their handling of this issue and the treatment of those working in this sector has been appalling.
 
Last edited:
HOSPITAL DATA


Headline:

The steady fall resumes happily. UK patients fall below 5000, England just 5 over 4000. UK ventilators drop below 700 - down a huge 3400 in 9 weeks. And England just over 600. Every region has less than 1000 patients when London alone had 7000 in January. No wonder deaths are tumbling. And most England regions down on both patients and ventilators again. Though the North West still a sluggish fall at the moment.

UK total:


Patients 4862 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 34, 386 in 65 days) :- lowest since 11 October

Ventilators 681 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3396 in 59 days) : lowest since 19 October


England only:-

ADMISSIONS:-

294 Covid admissions (21 March) - following 279, 287, 283, 351, 343, 364, 431 in the week before.


PATIENTS:-

Patients down 240 in day to 4005 v 5397 last week :- lowest since 12 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 30, 331 in 65 days)

Ventilators: Down in day 34 to 613 v 846 last week :- lowest since 23 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3123 in 59 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 24 hours and v last week


East down 20 to 362 v 497 // down 5 to 66 v 83

London down 36 to 840 v 1082 // down 8 to 190 v 274

Midlands down 70 to 826 v 1204 // down 17 to 131 v 186

NE & Yorks down 38 to 637 v 862 // down 11 to 82 v 107

North West down 26 to 723 v 911 // down 2 to 83 v 102

South East down 45 to 461 v 649 // down 10 to 37 v 67

South West down 5 to 156 v 192 // stays at 24 v 27
 
Rammy Blue said:
Surely that was just the domino effect though? Germans and French stopped, so we will just follow until we hear otherwise as it seemed the logical step.
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That's my take on it as well. And although they are separate nations, the EU's nose is well out of joint about this and whole load of other things. We've fucked them right off over Brexit, hard-balled them into a trade deal which gives us pretty much what we wanted. And to add final insult to injury, our Brexit claims were that we'd be much more agile and able to do deals quickly and here we are at Test Number 1, and lo and behold the EU is left fannying about whilst the UK cracked on and got the vaccines up and running. We've made them look like chumps and they don't like it one bit. Us securing vaccine supplies that the cannot get, only adds salt to the wound.

They needed to hide behind some face-saving excuse or other and fear of blood clots, nonsense about the drug not being effective etc etc plays right along with that narrative.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
If you're thinking of booking as early as May then yes I'd say wait for this task force review but equally I wouldn't put anyone off a punt as long as its booked correctly. Lets be honest, if you're booking for May then its in hope not expectation.

If you're thinking further into summer then fill your boots, as Calder was saying.

Book responsibly and the risk is minimal.

You're saying Calder was irresponsible and going against Government advice; the first bit is subjective (I don't think he was but could see why some might think that) but the 2nd part absolutely wasn't true.
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That may be your take, its not mine.

Personally I think anyone booking for mid to late summer is running a very high risk of their holiday being cancelled on them and then not getting their money back for months. And god help you if the worst case scenario happens: the holiday company DOESN'T cancel on you and you decide its not safe to go, or that maybe you'd need to quarantine and you cannot for whatever reason. Then maybe you've just lost your money.

Everyone to their own, but IMO booking a foreign holiday now is just daft.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I think the educated classes saw through it yes. Whether Mrs Miggins from the pie shop has the same view, unfortunately I doubt. There seems to be a lot of resistance to being vaccinated, something we are not seeing in the UK.
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May be getting better.
yougov.co.uk

Extent of damage to AstraZeneca vaccine’s perceived safety in Europe revealed | YouGov

A new YouGov survey shows that the vaccine is lagging behind Pfizer and Moderna alternatives in Europe, where in the UK it is seen as equally safe
yougov.co.uk yougov.co.uk
 
GM Weekly Pop Scores after today:~

Borough / Score Today / Score 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop scores going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop Score is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Tameside 117 / 122 / down 5 Testing positive 7.9%

Bolton 111 / 98/ UP 13 Testing positive 8.8%

Rochdale 111 / 117 / down 6 Testing positive 9.3%

Oldham 103 / 104 down 1 Testing positive 9.4%

Wigan 101 / 106 / down 5 Testing positive 8.6%

Salford 96 / 111 / down 15 Testing positive 8.8%

Manchester 92 / 94 / down 2 Testing positive 9.3%

Bury 88 / 81 UP 7 Testing positive 8.9%

Stockport 77 / 93 / down 16 Testing positive 7.0%

Trafford 48 / 46 / UP 2 Testing positive 6.8%


Trafford and Stockport - the two usual low scorers - starting to ease away from the rest which is an early sign of the return of low score normality. Though Trafford has had a bit of a blip and Bury might gate crash the party. Stockport had a good few days and has fallen the most week to week.

Weekly cases: Trafford 113, Back over the 100 after a few blips lately

Other Bolton 319, Bury 168, Manchester 509, Oldham 254, Rochdale 246, Salford 248, Stockport 225, Tameside 264, Wigan 333
 
Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA


England only:-

ADMISSIONS:-

294 Covid admissions (21 March) - following 279, 287, 283, 351, 343, 364, 431 in the week before.


PATIENTS:-

Patients down 240 in day to 4005 v 5397 last week :- lowest since 12 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 30, 331 in 65 days)
Click to expand...

That's a 25% week-on-week reduction in patients in England, despite cases stabilising. Great news.
 
Chippy_boy said:
That's my take on it as well. And although they are separate nations, the EU's nose is well out of joint about this and whole load of other things. We've fucked them right off over Brexit, hard-balled them into a trade deal which gives us pretty much what we wanted. And to add final insult to injury, our Brexit claims were that we'd be much more agile and able to do deals quickly and here we are at Test Number 1, and lo and behold the EU is left fannying about whilst the UK cracked on and got the vaccines up and running. We've made them look like chumps and they don't like it one bit. Us securing vaccine supplies that the cannot get, only adds salt to the wound.

They needed to hide behind some face-saving excuse or other and fear of blood clots, nonsense about the drug not being effective etc etc plays right along with that narrative.
Click to expand...
Makes for a cool story, but again tell me why Andalusia, a place heavily reliant on British tourism, would suspend the only chance they have of normality this summer for some weird political battle between the EU and the UK? It turns out there were three deaths in Spain where they were worried if there was a correlation with the vaccine. With the other stories around Europe they took a few days, did more tests, did autopsis on the three bodies and concluded that there was no correlation between the deaths and the vaccines, so the rollout continues. In a few days they'll be back up to speed.

I'm not naive enough to think that everything about covid isn't politicized from one side to the other but I draw the line at the thought that individual regions in a country like Spain would purposefully dent their future so that the EU can save face. They are on their arse, they need tourists and that is the be all and end all.
 
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