Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Nice map

But there is no potential about Manchester being a problem for the reasons you state.

I have been posting its vaccination numbers daily because they wete so low and showing how it's cases have been escalating on Zoe and saying for a week it will soon overtake Bolton. And it just has.

Unfortunately Greater Manchester is the epicentre of this variant and has one of the least vaccinated places (Manchester) and one of the most (Stockport) literally side by side.

That is not going to help either as boundaries are imaginary and do not mean a damn to a virus.

GM has to get this under control. Until it does talk of opening up in 3 weeks - in GM anyway - is pointless.

As of last night nearly all GM boroughs are in the watch list. And case numbers have skyrocketed everywhere in the past week. Nobody is getting away with it around here.

Until we get on top of this spread we cannot know which way this is going to go. The vaccinations are making a difference but I do not understand why no effort seems to be going into speeding up the dismal numbers in Manchester. Who will only just cross 50% of the population having one jab - versus Stockport close to three quarters.

The focus on Bolton has helped there and numbers seem to be stabilising but that is coming at the expense of Bury Manchester, Salford and others rising to overtake them. Narrow focus on one place just lets this variant spread faster.
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I suspect vaccination rates are tied in with deprivation. Difficult to communicate to people who are disillusioned (with good reason, and suspicious).

I think they could do more in the news to publish this data and make local people really aware of what the risks are. THen you might get people in Manchester coming forward for vaccines.

As usual the publicity will probably happen after the event but you can see it unfolding now.

The Bolton picture is both encouraging and discouraging. Encouraging because there it was turned around and I think I remember a stat to say there were 41 people in the Royal Bolton NHS Trust Hospital(s), and new admissions were falling (a week old) but discouraging in that there they have vaccination levels that are pretty close to the national picture but Manchester is below. If it takes vaccination to protect Manchester, then we have a long way to go and a lot of people could be at risk.

THose people who say we must open up on the 21st June should look at the data. If the infection increases in Manchester, it will be very demanding to just combat it with vaccines. Probably impossible in the short term. When you look at the headline rates for the UK that they show on the news each night, it's quite good but some areas fall between the cracks.
 
lancs blue said:
Don't the city regions of Manchester and Salford have a much lower vaccine take-up because - in part at least - there are around 100,000 students in those two regions who distort the usual age demographics giving a much higher proportion of u-25s who haven't yet been called for vaccination in any numbers?
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Yes, the age demographics ARE why but the new variant is just raging through that population. Just as it has in Bolton. Though probably ethnic fators at work there - too - where cultural reluctance over vaccines can sometimes be higher.

As we discussed here yesterday the age demographics right now are the same everywhere - about three quarters under 40 and about 5% at most over 60.

THis is why hospitalisations and deaths are low and cases rising. And that is good news as that heat map from last night shows perfectly how well the vaccinations are saving lives and the NHS from being swamped.

But the problem is a small percentage of a growing number needing hospitalisation becomes a big enough number to become a concern to an NHS with a huge backlog to carch up on if you do not target who is actually catching this new variant.

Hopefully we neer get near where we were in January. And second jab protection for the vulnerable needs uergently completing. But if we allow the younger ages to just catch it we probably will rise enough to delay the opening up, Though with luck only by a few weeks.

Then by the time we get to the Delta Quadrant or whatever Doctor Who calls the next one - unless that is one emerges that really evades the vaccine - then this might be the last major concern we have and we can adjust to living with Covid as endemic but basically like the flu and not a deadly plague.
 
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There could be a student age-related effect but look at Salford (57%,39%) Salford has a university too but overall I think low vaccination will correlate with inner-city poverty. You see that link everywhere. Social class and vaccination, and ethnic groups and vaccination. There's probably a cross-over. A lot of elderly and locals who might have missed their first chance of vaccination might come forward if you open a vaccination centre in a local school and leaflet the area two days before. If you set up vaccination by internet appointment you'll miss certain groups out.
 
Marvin said:
There could be a student age-related effect but look at Salford (57%,39%) Salford has a university too but overall I think low vaccination will correlate with inner-city poverty. You see that link everywhere. Social class and vaccination, and ethnic groups and vaccination. There's probably a cross-over. A lot of elderly and locals who might have missed their first chance of vaccination might come forward if you open a vaccination centre in a local school and leaflet the area two days before. If you set up vaccination by internet appointment you'll miss certain groups out.
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in 2020, 50% of Manchester's popn was <30, in Salford 40% of the popn was <30 (those numbers will have changed slightly), so that will make some of the difference from 50% 1st vacc in manchester to salford's 57%

point taken re deprivation scale, yet another contributory factor
 
Marvin said:
There could be a student age-related effect but look at Salford (57%,39%) Salford has a university too but overall I think low vaccination will correlate with inner-city poverty. You see that link everywhere. Social class and vaccination, and ethnic groups and vaccination. There's probably a cross-over. A lot of elderly and locals who might have missed their first chance of vaccination might come forward if you open a vaccination centre in a local school and leaflet the area two days before. If you set up vaccination by internet appointment you'll miss certain groups out.
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Yes I agree there is likely truth in that. And if we are to stem this wave we have to stop the people who ARE catching it from catching it in numbers as well as being sure everyone at most risk has had both jabs ASAP.

We will do that as they know this is the aim but whether we can do both in time to open up fully in 3 weeks is a much bigger question mark.The ones most at risk obviously need yo be prioritised and the week or two gap after the second dose now recgnised as needed factored in as well.

I would not be surprised to see mid July rather than mid June. But it could turn the right way as fast as it turned the wrong. We will know by the middle of next week I suspect.

And if it is delayed a month I think some things will still open up as a sweetener. So it looks like less of a reversal.
 
i think it's fairly established now that the Indian/delta variant is dominant
and probably pretty strong evidence that being outdoors vastly diminishes transmission (though increased transmissibility will fight this a bit)
and so it's good news that the Liverpool gigs showed no sign of spread (albeit delta not being much of a thing when that was held);

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: No detectable spread of virus after Liverpool pilot events

Covid test events held in Liverpool were "undoubtedly a success", the city's health chief says.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
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Bolton hospital Covid in patients over the long weekend fell from 49 to 43 as of today.

That looks enouraging. And matches the falling Pop Score.

Vaccinating seems to be helping eliminate the wave there.

Only 9 other boroughs left. Starting from a lower base so hopefully that will be easier.
 
Wales data:

NB: THIS COVERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CASES - TOMORROW WILL BE 48 HOURS TOO.

0 death - was 0 last week

94 cases - was 62 (for the same two days last week)

0.9% positivity -

The Weekly POP Score for Wales is 8!

The lowest in GM is Tameside on 62. Six times worse. Though Stockport WAS 14 just 9 days ago (now 82).
 
The new spiking areas in Wales appear to be signifucant as they are in North Wales - Wrexham and Conwy being two of them. Most likely areas to be visited by people from the NW and so susceptible to spread of the variant dominant in the NW.
 
crooky said:
Feel for you... You wait so long for a nice holiday and it's not fair to have that pleasure taken away from you.

Perhaps a last minute holiday on booking.com with ratings of only 9 or higher could be worth a look if you're still willing? Possibly they'll be nothing available but there's normally something decent you can find if you aren't overly fussy.

You should post the hotel as well so people can avoid them. Especially if they are a chain of hotels as that'll help everyone on here regardless of where they live in the UK.
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I didn't out-rightly name because it might have fallen in contravention of our code of conduct sub section fifteen, but safe to say they are a national chain who are supposed to excel in excellence. Sometimes reviews can be futile and in this instance it was a case of profit over people as they did not have the man power to maintain any level of cleanliness over a bank holiday weekend let alone their trade mark Clean Protect Promise.

As a general rule we take our own sanitising and viral killing products to restaurants, pubs and hotels but with this groups pledge to protect we never felt the need.

I have managed to secure email addresses of the CEO and her hierarchy and also her senior head honchos. I shall also be penning a letter to Blackpool council environmental health team to see if they can take the issue to task.

A lesson learnt and we live and learn but I will not be taking onboard any more marketing jingles, buzzwords, corporate catchphrases or advertising bumph again.
 
Healdplace said:
The new spiking areas in Wales appear to be signifucant as they are in North Wales - Wrexham and Conwy being two of them. Most likely areas to be visited by people from the NW and so susceptible to spread of the variant dominant in the NW.
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Another reason for the Welsh to hate the English..and who'd blame them
 
Zoe Update. Highest rise today in new infections in 6 months. Up 4527 to 58, 665.

Also in NW only Salford and Rochdale NOT now in the watch zones for high cases.

Yet oddly Salford has had the highest case numbers for real over past few days outside of Bolton and Manchester

Stockport moves up into the second highest zone.

Trafford now the worst in the North West and above Bury.

Bolton now lower than several boroughs. Including Manchester and Stockport.

Sunderland now the highest numbers outside GM in the north. Nowhere in Yorkshire that high.

In the Midlands two new hotspots in Redditch and Sandwell. Leicester also climbing. All above everywhere in GM other than Trafford.

Watford is the highest in the south and above most GM boroughs apart from Trafford and Tameside.

Scotland has not changed much. A large sea of dark pink in the areas that have been most impacted for weeks that go up and down a little but are around the level of most GM boroughs.
 
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Two Gun Bob said:
I didn't out-rightly name because it might have fallen in contravention of our code of conduct sub section fifteen, but safe to say they are a national chain who are supposed to excel in excellence. Sometimes reviews can be futile and in this instance it was a case of profit over people as they did not have the man power to maintain any level of cleanliness over a bank holiday weekend let alone their trade mark Clean Protect Promise.

As a general rule we take our own sanitising and viral killing products to restaurants, pubs and hotels but with this groups pledge to protect we never felt the need.

I have managed to secure email addresses of the CEO and her hierarchy and also her senior head honchos. I shall also be penning a letter to Blackpool council environmental health team to see if they can take the issue to task.

A lesson learnt and we live and learn but I will not be taking onboard any more marketing jingles, buzzwords, corporate catchphrases or advertising bumph again.
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Lennie Henry sends his regards
 
Got my second jab booked for the end of June, which would be about 11 weeks after my first. I am over 50 so was expecting it to be brought forward about 3 weeks, no text or notification yet, but I did go on the website, cancel my original date and only then can you see the available dates to rebook. Earliest was exactly the same date as my original...
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
Spot on!

21st June, 28th June… 12th July… I’m not bothered at all, if the reasoning is sound with a target to get all of the vulnerable and at-risk and as many or all of the over ‘xxx’-age-they-feel-is-the-right-age to ensure have got both vaccine jabs done before we fully open up.

But once we’ve got there, more fool you if you have refused the vaccine! We are opening up and that’s that.

The borders is the biggest thing throughout this whole thing for me. We are an island, we should find it easy to close out borders and keep on top of where people are coming from. And it should also be easy to track that people from India, or now Vietnam, can fly to Helsinki or Lisbon and then into Great Britain rather than directly into Britain from those places and enforce quarantine on these people trying to bypass the quarantine rules.
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Going forward we need to reduce truck deliveries by Ferry so we can close our borders during a pandemic. Container delivery is the only way to do this. Genome sequencing indicates that 1/3 of new cases in May/June last year cam from France, Belgium or Holland variants.
Our airports need restructuring so onward travel can be restricted to prevent leaks.
The list goes on. Major changes to building ventilation as well ,- Shops, Supermarkets, Multiple occupancy housing blocks, Stations etc.
 
Healdplace said:
Zoe Update. Highest rise today in new infections in 6 months. Up 4527 to 58, 665.

Also in NW only Salford and Rochdale NOT now in the watch zones for high cases.

Yet oddly Salford has had the highest case numbers for real over past few days outside of Bolton and Manchester

Stockport moves up into the second highest zone.

Trafford now the worst in the North West and above Bury.

Bolton now lower than several boroughs. Including Manchester and Stockport.

Sunderland now the highest numbers outside GM in the north. Nowhere in Yorkshire that high.

In the Midlands two new hotspots in Redditch and Sandwell. Leicester also climbing. All above everywhere in GM other than Trafford.

Watford is the highest in the south and above most GM boroughs apart from Trafford and Tameside.

Scotland has not changed much. A large sea of dark pink in the areas that have been most impacted for weeks that go up and down a little but are around the level of most GM boroughs.
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Very worrying
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Very worrying
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It is a bit of a worry but not anything to REALLY worry about imo.

The vaccinations are making a big difference between how bad this would have been had it been 3 or 4 months ago and now.

Look at the positives from Bolton. Biggest outbreak in GM. It has been got under control in a week or two by the looks of it and falling. And hardly anyone there has died and only modest numbers in hospital. The entire NW never went above 200 patients in the period Bolton was having more cases than that every day.

And as I reported earlier there are only 43 in hospital with Covid in Bolton - down 6 over past few days.

This is a wave of cases but not thankfully of really sick or dying people.
 
Healdplace said:
It is a bit of a worry but not anything to REALLY worry about imo.

The vaccinations are making a big difference between how bad this would have been had it been 3 or 4 months ago and now.

Look at the positives from Bolton. Biggest outbreak in GM. It has been got under control in a week or two by the looks of it and falling. And hardly anyone there has died and only modest numbers in hospital. The entire NW never went above 200 patients in the period Bolton was having more cases than that every day.

And as I reported earlier there are only 43 in hospital with Covid in Bolton - down 6 over past few days.

This is a wave of cases but not thankfully of really sick or dying people.
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Let's hope those in hospital in Bolton all get discharged
 
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