Coronavirus (2021) thread

[m7mcfc]

Plenty of the population wanting it to go on for a good few months/years yet, unfortunately.

Of course they do on 80% of their wages.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

UK daily case numbers over the past 7 days:

June 9th - 7540
June 10th - 7393
June 11th - 8125
June 12th - 7738
June 13th - 7490
June 14th - 7742
Today - 7673

Those figures are remarkably flat and give me optimism that this isn’t going to get much worse, especially as each day passes sees an extra several hundred thousand jabs administered.

Fingers crossed it stays that way, if you look at the Kent variant when it hit the graphs were going up nearly vertical on infections. It’s not happening with the Indian variant, hopefully evidence the vaccines are getting this virus on the run.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

UK daily case numbers over the past 7 days:

June 9th - 7540
June 10th - 7393
June 11th - 8125
June 12th - 7738
June 13th - 7490
June 14th - 7742
Today - 7673

Those figures are remarkably flat and give me optimism that this isn’t going to get much worse, especially as each day passes sees an extra several hundred thousand jabs administered.

Think the NW has got to it's plateau and will drop shortly...the other regions could still cop for it yet with the D variant taking hold.

I know the stats say that 90% or so of all Covid is the Indian one but when you look at the NW figures they alone are a big percentage of all infections. I'd be pleasantly surprised if 9/10 or anywhere near that was the current breakdown in other regions.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 340 / 248 / UP 92 Testing positive 10.5%

Salford 338 / 268 / UP 70 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 309 / 205 / UP 104 Testing positive 9.8%

Bolton 283/ 318 / DOWN 35 Testing positive 11.1%

Wigan 257 / 183 / UP 74 Testing positive 9.5%

Trafford 224 / 174 / UP 50 Testing positive 7.6%

Rochdale 220 / 169 / UP 51 Testing positive 10.2 %

Stockport 216 / 218 / DOWN 2 Testing positive 7.8%

Oldham 181 / 126 / UP 55 Testing positive 10.2%

Tameside 178 / 120 / UP 58 Testing positive 8.6%


Manchester ousts Salford from top after a run of high scores and Bury now also pulling clear of Bolton.

Last month's once worst in the UK Bolton now just fourth highest Pop Score in GM.

Wigan climbing above Stockport too and catching Bolton fast whilst Stockport fell again today and joins Bolton as the only GM borough to FALL in the weekly numbers since the Delta variant period.

Trafford and Rochdale also climb above Stockport

Oldham had another good score today and let Tameside almost catch it - battle between these two for best in GM numbers tomorrow.

 

[Healdplace]

GM VACCINE UPDATE:


Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 74.0% / 51.8 % V 73.9 / 51.5%

BURY 74.4% / 53.7% V 74,3% / 53.5%

MANCHESTER 55.3% / 32.7% V 55.0% / 32.4%

OLDHAM 68.8% / 49.8% V 68.6% / 49.5%

ROCHDALE 71.4% / 48.8% V 71.2% / 48.7%

SALFORD 61.6 % / 41. 8% V 61.3% / 41.6%

STOCKPORT 78.1% / 56.9% V 77.8% / 56.6%

TAMESIDE 73.4% / 52.5 % V 73.2% / 52.2%

TRAFFORD 75.1% / 53.8% V 74.8% / 53.4%

WIGAN 76.7% / 56.0% V 76.3% / 55.6%

 

[True_Blue69]

New York has hit 70% vaccinations and is lifting all restrictions. Could have been us.

 

[BobKowalski]

Lol good to see you've been called out for this.

Want to know why the Indian variant has postponed opening up? Johnson.

Germany is vaxing at around 760,000 daily average. France and Italy at around 560,000 daily average. France has reduced the waiting time between doses to three weeks (source Reuters). All countries with a comparable population size to the UK.

Easy Jet moving planes from UK to Germany as a result of European govts more flexible policies on travel: "We are seeing European governments progressively opening up using frameworks in place which enable travel and much of it restriction-free...’

Our vaccine rollout has been first class and it was claimed we would open the economy before anyone else. In reality Europe have kept their economies more open than us since January and are catching up on the vaccines.

That said, it would be churlish not to acknowledge I referenced old data on the excess deaths stat. I am nothing if not magnanimous.

 

[Healdplace]

When will it peak..we can't be far off ?

As others reposted the last weeks data I posted earlier this evening you can see what they suggest - that it may have plateaued by the looks of it already with luck in the NW. But too early to be certain. As it depends on events in multiple regions.

The case numbers for the NW region suggest that too. Aso posted earlier this evening for over past the week.

Stayed pretty flat around 2100/2200 last five days.

Watch to see if it drops below 2000 and we might be on the right track.

No other big region is climbing exponentially as yet like the NW did.

Though the two smallest regions have the most concering trajectory:

North East 78 - 242 - 618 - wk to wk over past fortnight

South East 88 - 162 - 539 - wk to wk over past fortnight

If any of the larger regions take off like that we may have problems. As that will equate to thousands not hundreds of extra cases.

London in the same period has gone 384 - 773 - 813 which is looking more like the NW in trajectiry than NE or SW.

Only the coming days will tell.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

New York has hit 70% vaccinations and is lifting all restrictions. Could have been us.

Yes, if only wed managed the pandemic like New York.........

 

[Indigo Prime]

They are breaking the government's own law if they challenge people not wearing a mask if they say they are exempt. It is quite clear on the Gov UK site. In spite of videos showing staff in supermarkets doing so and police ( Who should really know the law better) they are not allowed to. Nobody has to produce proof of the reason they can't wear a mask, nor should they be harassed to do so. Just saying I'm exempt is enough

They can and people can't hide behind their human rights and human rights act to justify it.
The first of these is that rights can be legitimately restricted by governments. Under the ECHR, lawful interference occurs when rights are restricted for the purposes of “national security, public safety… the economic wellbeing of the country… protection of health… [and] the protection of the rights and freedoms of others”.

The second caveat is that articulated by Wendy Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, who posits that nobody possesses the right to do something that could injure the health of [their] neighbours. In essence, the right to bodily autonomy does not generate a corresponding right to infringe on the health and safety of others.

The realities do not grant anybody the right to refuse to wear a mask when it is mandated. Nor do we have a right to harm others simply because the wearing of a mask is inconvenient. The bottom line is clear. In accordance with government advice, the law, and the prevailing scientific evidence, all those who are not medically exempt should be wearing face masks.


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[BlueAnorak]

UK daily case numbers over the past 7 days:

June 9th - 7540
June 10th - 7393
June 11th - 8125
June 12th - 7738
June 13th - 7490
June 14th - 7742
Today - 7673

Those figures are remarkably flat and give me optimism that this isn’t going to get much worse, especially as each day passes sees an extra several hundred thousand jabs administered.

100,000 a day by a week on Monday according to the usual suspects of incompetent modelling cadres.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Want to know why the Indian variant has postponed opening up? Johnson.

Germany is vaxing at around 760,000 daily average. France and Italy at around 560,000 daily average. France has reduced the waiting time between doses to three weeks (source Reuters). All countries with a comparable population size to the UK.

Easy Jet moving planes from UK to Germany as a result of European govts more flexible policies on travel: "We are seeing European governments progressively opening up using frameworks in place which enable travel and much of it restriction-free...’

Our vaccine rollout has been first class and it was claimed we would open the economy before anyone else. In reality Europe have kept their economies more open than us since January and are catching up on the vaccines.

That said, it would be churlish not to acknowledge I referenced old data on the excess deaths stat. I am nothing if not magnanimous.

Wait for Delta to hit the continent. It is already there and they are still between 5 and 8 weeks behind us even on current vaccine levels.

Of course to you our current government is always damned.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Yes, if only wed managed the pandemic like New York.........

We did. Just as badly.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

971 cases in Scotland (I had hoped cases were beginning to plateau but this represents a 300 or so rise from last week with the same 5.0% testing positive, so maybe no such luck with the plateau)

26 aged 65+
153 aged 45-64

341 aged 25-44
447 aged 0-24 (Inclusive of 207 aged 0-14)

***********

2 deaths

1 aged 25-44
1 aged 85+

************

13.5k first doses
27k second doses

These vaccination numbers might be a but shorter than reality due to another processing issue according to ScotGov.

 

[Carpe Diem]

How are they allowed to stage games there then in a packed stadium with no masks or distancing? Turn on your TV it is incredible.

Maybe people will now start to critically think and start reading instead of just listening to propaganda coming out their TV.

 

[Marvin]

How are they allowed to stage games there then in a packed stadium with no masks or distancing? Turn on your TV it is incredible.

Cases and vaccinations

 

[ctwrd]

Restrictions ended in New York.
But we’re stuck here in wokeland

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Want to know why the Indian variant has postponed opening up? Johnson.

Germany is vaxing at around 760,000 daily average. France and Italy at around 560,000 daily average. France has reduced the waiting time between doses to three weeks (source Reuters). All countries with a comparable population size to the UK.

Easy Jet moving planes from UK to Germany as a result of European govts more flexible policies on travel: "We are seeing European governments progressively opening up using frameworks in place which enable travel and much of it restriction-free...’

Our vaccine rollout has been first class and it was claimed we would open the economy before anyone else. In reality Europe have kept their economies more open than us since January and are catching up on the vaccines.

That said, it would be churlish not to acknowledge I referenced old data on the excess deaths stat. I am nothing if not magnanimous.

bob, I agree with you.

now that is strange .

 

[Manc in London]

Think the NW has got to it's plateau and will drop shortly...the other regions could still cop for it yet with the D variant taking hold.

That may not be the case. It could be areas like London that immunity is higher. Who knows? After all London has been hit pretty hard. Especially at the time when testing was nowhere near as comprehensive and more recently due to the Kent variant.

If it he spike has been caused by people travelling to India, it's worth noting that c550k Indians live in London. To give that some perspective it is more than the combined total populations of Bolton MBC and Oldham MBC.

Cases have been going up in London for around three weeks although still comparatively low in terms of 'per 100k'. Will have to wait and see. One of the issues down here are the low levels of vaccination among ethnic minority communities. Certainly a good chance cases and hospitalisations could start rising sharply.

 

[paulchapo]

They can and people can't hide behind their human rights and human rights act to justify it.
The first of these is that rights can be legitimately restricted by governments. Under the ECHR, lawful interference occurs when rights are restricted for the purposes of “national security, public safety… the economic wellbeing of the country… protection of health… [and] the protection of the rights and freedoms of others”.

The second caveat is that articulated by Wendy Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, who posits that nobody possesses the right to do something that could injure the health of [their] neighbours. In essence, the right to bodily autonomy does not generate a corresponding right to infringe on the health and safety of others.

The realities do not grant anybody the right to refuse to wear a mask when it is mandated. Nor do we have a right to harm others simply because the wearing of a mask is inconvenient. The bottom line is clear. In accordance with government advice, the law, and the prevailing scientific evidence, all those who are not medically exempt should be wearing face masks.


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From Gov UK.

If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering:

you do not routinely need to show any written evidence of this
you do not need show an exemption card
This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

However, some people may feel more comfortable showing something that says they do not have to wear a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.

There is something else about it being an offence to challenge people or refuse them service if they say they are exempt bit I really can't be bothered trawling through it anymore. Some people have won court cases on that basis. Personally I wear one even though it feel like shit while wearing one, it makes me cough more and aggravates my asthma but it's preferable to arguing with all the little Hitler's that are now everywhere.