Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Marvin said:
What's your explanation then? I've given you mine: it spreads in those Indian communities that suffer some deprivation. I think Bolton and places like Leicester were a more likely home for a cluster than London commuter belt because of the number of social and familial contacts are likely different. ALl throughout this epidemic we've seen that the Covid affects the more deprived areas and I suspect the same factor is at play again.

I can't say much more unless you actually deconstruct my argument or come up with something yourself.
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I don't know the answer. I just think your explanation does not identify the main issue. It's not cogent and the basis is based on misinterpretation of facts. I believe I highlighted those.
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East DOWN 10 to 429 V 317

London DOWN 25 to 1200 V 948

South East DOWN 10 to 882 V 585

South West DOWN 27 to 810 V 400


Only tiny falls but everyhere up wk to wk. SW by the most.




MIDLANDS



East UP 109 to 563 V 384

West DOWN 109 to 677 V 540



East Midlands up by biggest in UK on day when everywhere fell.






NORTH



North East DOWN 14 to 633 V 315 - Doubled in the week and up 6 times in a month


Yorkshire UP 12 to 953 V 739- also up a little but not rising as fast as NE.



AND

NORTH WEST DOWN 104 to 2754 V 2317 - Hopefully as high as it will go.




Past weeks NW numbers are 2317 - 2191 - 2134 - 2262 - 2017 - 2157 - 2858 - 2754

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 1643 - 1755 - 1752 - 1605 - 1673 - 1840 - 2112 - 2317

GM numbers in past week 1191 - 1098 - 1037 - 1103 - 1014 - 925 - 1341 - 1306


You can see the gulf between GM and NW numbers rising from 1126 to 1448 across the week.

Thos shows you that GMs contrbution to the NW total is getting smaller and smaller.

Which is good news for GM as it takes it from a bit over 50% to a bit under 50%
 
Full GM details:


Total cases 1306 - DOWN 35 on Yesterday - from NW fall of 104 . Under 50% not so good.

Wk to wk UP 115 when the NW rises by 437 - which is far better than expectations of around 218.

So GM had another good day wk to wk relative to rest of the region.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 125 / UP 4 / DOWN 12

BURY 91 / DOWN 18 / DOWN 18

MANCHESTER 327 / DOWN 8 / UP 24

OLDHAM 103 / UP 10 / UP 38

ROCHDALE 85 / UP 6 / UP 11

SALFORD 145 / UP 8 / UP 10

STOCKPORT 86 / DOWN 7 / DOWN 29

TAMESIDE 76 / DOWN 22 / UP 29

TRAFFORD 107 / UP 24 / UP 27

WIGAN 161 / DOWN 32 / UP 35


Stockport and Bury had the best day - down on both day to day and week to week.

Manchester's still in the 300s and Wigan nearest to them but both down a bit day to day but well up week to week.

Some real surprises with Oldham and Trafford topping 100. And lowest score 76 is not great,

But could have been worse.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 479, Oldham 501, Rochdale 524, Trafford 574, Stockport 580, Bury 615, Bolton 780, Salford 880. Wigan 963, Manchester 1928.



Manchester heading for triple Bolton now and Salford and Wigan both ahead of Bolton with Wigan's pretty terrible numbers lately making it now second to Manchester in weekly cases ahead of Salford and closing in on four figures.

Stockport's good few days see it fall back even more and almost catch Trafford after their big jump today.

Only Tameside sub 500 now.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 348 / 291 / UP 57 Testing positive 10.7%

Salford 340 / 301 / UP 39 Testing positive 10.0%

Bury 323 / 259 / UP 64 Testing positive 9.9%

Wigan 293 / 218 / UP 75 Testing positive 9.7%

Bolton 271 / 315 / DOWN 44 Testing positive 11.2%

Trafford 242 / 192 / UP 50 Testing positive 7.7%

Rochdale 236 / 189 / UP 47 Testing positive 10.4 %

Tameside 211 / 143 / UP 68 Testing positive 8.7%

Oldham 211 / 159 / UP 52 Testing positive 10.4%

Stockport 197 / 232 / DOWN 35 Testing positive 7.9%


Manchester back on top from Salford and Bury now also in the 300s with a fast rising Wigan heading there too.

Bolton now down in 5th place and still falling.

Trafford and Rochdale both going up and Oldham had a bad day so all over 200 now.

Stockport now has the best GM record after looking like it was going to challenge Bolton a week or so ago. Now these are the only two boroughs falling and it took Stockport below 200 as the only GM borough there now. Quite a reversal in the past week. Showing how fast these things can change in either direction. For anybody!

Stockport's success has also seen it eat more out of Trafford's recent 200 lead for overall Pop Score across the pandemic.

Trafford is still easily top on 7719 but Stockport cut the gap again by 16 in one go today to 142 and is on 7861,

Bolton unsurprisingly now has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 241.

However, there are now 4 boroughs in the 10,000 club - Manchester on 10, 676. Rochdale on 10, 352 and Oldham's bad day meaning it overtook them by 2 to reach 10, 354. Truly neck and neck there.

Salford had a worse day than Bury and so beat them to be the next to join the 10 K club - just - on 10, 002

But Bury on 9989 will join them tomorrow as nobody in GM has had a daily Pop rise of just 11 lately. Stockport had the best today and that was 29.

So there will be only 4 boroughs sub 10,000 tomorrow. Trafford and Stockport months away bar a disater in either. And Tameside many weeks off too bar the same.

But Wigan's bad numbers if they continue will see it top 10,000 within the next week to 10 days.

Hopefully not. On current numbers at 9608 it is maybe two weeks away, Though at the 59 which it rose today that might become one.

Tameside possibly may get there too this side of autumn - at 8650 - but we will hopefully hae stopped counting by then.
 
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I see the covid19 restrictions have been lifted for the Scots in London.

Shame they werent lift for my workmates 21st last weekend. A group of them book 3 tables with screens between. They followed full covid19 guidelines. Once the pub released they were together the pub tried to move them to other tables so they were apart. Trouble was they knew lots of the other customers so were made to leave.

Yet the Scots come to London and completely ignore the lockdown. The press/media seem not to mind and are almost praising them for the support.

No the Scots are breaking National guidelines and the authorities are totally ignoring it.

Makes me feel like saying sod it I have followed the guidelines since they started. Why ? Do I carry on following the guidelines or like the jocks say sod it I will do as I like now ?
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:


Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 74.5% / 52.9 % V 74.4 / 52.3%

BURY 75.6% / 54.4% V 75.2% / 54.1%

MANCHESTER 56.3% / 33.6% V 55.7% / 33.3%

OLDHAM 69.6% / 51.1% V 69.3% / 50.5%

ROCHDALE 72.0% / 49.9% V 71.6% / 49.7%

SALFORD 63.1 % / 42. 4% V 62.5% / 42.1%

STOCKPORT 78.9% / 58.2% V 78.4% / 57.6%

TAMESIDE 74.1% / 54.7% V 73.6% / 53.5%

TRAFFORD 75.9% / 54.9% V 75.6% / 54.6%

WIGAN 77.8% / 57.0% V 77.6% / 56.5%


NOTICE THIS AND THE POP SCORE TABLE FOR GM ABOVE AND ASK IF IT IS A COINCIDENCE THAT.....

THE PLACE WITH THE BEST VACCINATION NUMBERS - STOCKPORT - IS LOWEST IN CASES PER POPULATION AND THE TWO WITH THE WORST VACCINATION NUMBERS - MANCHESTER AND SALFORD - HAVE THE HIGHEST CASES PER POPULATION IN THE POP SCORES.
 
give it to gordon said:
I see the covid19 restrictions have been lifted for the Scots in London.

Shame they werent lift for my workmates 21st last weekend. A group of them book 3 tables with screens between. They followed full covid19 guidelines. Once the pub released they were together the pub tried to move them to other tables so they were apart. Trouble was they knew lots of the other customers so were made to leave.

Yet the Scots come to London and completely ignore the lockdown. The press/media seem not to mind and are almost praising them for the support.

No the Scots are breaking National guidelines and the authorities are totally ignoring it.

Makes me feel like saying sod it I have followed the guidelines since they started. Why ? Do I carry on following the guidelines or like the jocks say sod it I will do as I like now ?
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Look at the g7 summit says it all really , look at Cummings , professor lockdown having a affair I’d live your life best you can
 
Does anyone know of vaccine sites where 20 and 22 year olds can get the jab this weekend or early next week? We are in Macclesfield but happy to travel
 
journolud said:
Does anyone know of vaccine sites where 20 and 22 year olds can get the jab this weekend or early next week? We are in Macclesfield but happy to travel
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theisleofthanetnews.com

Drop in covid vaccination clinic to be held at Saga site for all aged 18 and over

A drop in covid vaccination clinic will run at the Saga site in Ramsgate on Saturday (June 19) and is open to anyone aged 18 and over. The clinic, run by the Margate/Mockett Wood GP hub, will be op…
theisleofthanetnews.com theisleofthanetnews.com

Its along way thou !!
 
give it to gordon said:
I see the covid19 restrictions have been lifted for the Scots in London.

Shame they werent lift for my workmates 21st last weekend. A group of them book 3 tables with screens between. They followed full covid19 guidelines. Once the pub released they were together the pub tried to move them to other tables so they were apart. Trouble was they knew lots of the other customers so were made to leave.

Yet the Scots come to London and completely ignore the lockdown. The press/media seem not to mind and are almost praising them for the support.

No the Scots are breaking National guidelines and the authorities are totally ignoring it.

Makes me feel like saying sod it I have followed the guidelines since they started. Why ? Do I carry on following the guidelines or like the jocks say sod it I will do as I like now ?
Click to expand...
So true.
Certain circumstances are just let go.
The media will hound some people for a minor breach but then say how great it is when a load of fans congregate to hug and celebrate
 
On the 1st May China had done 270 million vaccinations. This weekend they will hit 1 billion. Call it 700 million vaccines in 7 weeks. That is extraordinary.

Turkey just vaccinated 1.5m yesterday. That's twice what the best of Western Europe are doing at the moment. Israel and the UAE are well on the way to fully vaccinating their whole population. With two of the leading vaccine producers domiciled at least in part in Europe, you'd have thought Europe would have led the way?

Globally surely everything changes when the USA and China have completed their domestic vaccination?

cumulative-covid-vaccinations.png
 
Marvin said:
On the 1st May China had done 270 million vaccinations. This weekend they will hit 1 billion. Call it 700 million vaccines in 7 weeks. That is extraordinary.

Turkey just vaccinated 1.5m yesterday. That's twice what the best of Western Europe are doing at the moment. Israel and the UAE are well on the way to fully vaccinating their whole population. With two of the leading vaccine producers domiciled at least in part in Europe, you'd have thought Europe would have led the way?

Globally surely everything changes when the USA and China have completed their domestic vaccination?

View attachment 19597
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Personally I wouldn’t believe a word of anything coming from the Chinese authorities.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Personally I wouldn’t believe a word of anything coming from the Chinese authorities.
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I spoke to a number of Chinese people last week and they confirmed that many of their family and friends had been vaccinated. We also need to appreciate that the state there is much more efficient and effective in implementing programmes across society, and when almost everyone and everything requires a smartphone to function, it is easy for the authorities to wield the stick when the carrot isn’t working.
 
The problem with those kind of graphs on vaccinations is they show numbers given and it is not exacty really evidence of the UK being poor at reaching people that countries with populations many times the same size are doing more vaccinations.

They kind of have to do 4 or 5 times as many as us just to reach the same population percentage. And they have 4 or 5 times the resources to do it.

The fairer comparison shows that we have done very well on these measures and Wales is literally in the top two or three nations on the planet not way down as that graph might infer.

The bigger problem we have is not targetting the right populations. The disparity between Manchester and Stockport - literally next to one another with a border - is far too large and regardless of reasons needs to be rebalanced because it is showing up in the cases now happening.

These are the real issues with our vaccination programme that we are seeking to address with pop up centres not some graph that is not wrong in what it says just a bit misleading in what it infers.
 
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