Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
Except that's the law. Whereas all laws on this are being removed.

Speeding is another analogy - the main purpose is to protect the innocent victims of it. We don't make that "personal responsibility"
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Agreed, we went from advising people to ‘clunk-click’ and in the end made it the law because while everyone agreed it was sensible, a lot were reluctant to do so, some even suggested it was dangerous to wear a seatbelt. They are today’s anti-vaxxers.

For many people being told to wear a seatbelt gave them the excuse to do something they already wanted to do, for young men it was the thought they weren’t ‘manly’ enough if they wore one.

Same with masks, people will want to wear one but will feel uncomfortable if many don‘t, so making mask wearing compulsory gives people the excuse to do something they already want to do.

All this leaving it up to people and ‘freedom day’ bollocks shite is dumb.
 
A friend of mine in his early sixties had the Johnson jab. A month later got Covid and was pretty unwell for 10 day.Lost weight, didn't want to eat and totally exhausted.
Just posting this as a warning to the older members in here. Vaccination might keep you out if hospital but you can still get it.
 
BobKowalski said:
So, start relaxing but do it in stages or keep some measures in place like masks on public transport. No need for an all or nothing approach.

I go out, go to shops, went to the optician yesterday, usual stuff, all I want is to know places that I visit or shop are sensible and aren't rammed full of unmasked people breathing in my face.

Taking sensible precautions has nothing to do with ‘freedom’. It’s like wearing a seatbelt or not drinking bleach. Kind of fucking obvious.
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If I may, BK, when you were out and about yesterday, roughly what percentage of people were wearing face masks?

In the Netherlands, it remains mandatory on public transport, so practically full compliance, yet in public places it remains at the individual’s discretion, so I’d hazard well below 10% compliance now. And that estimate hasn’t altered since cases increased.
 
BlueAnorak said:
If the modelling community oveer egg the pudding for a 3rd time in 5 months they will be ignored in the future.
Much like the boy crying wolf.
This will be disastrous for public perception of science based methods.
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WTF?

I literally just posted you the last set of modelling and that we're substantially *above* the central scenario.

You've got "over-egged" fixed in your mind and you're completely ignoring reality.

Here it is again with more details and references

The actual England data since that projection is...

datenewAdmissions
10/07/2021​
442​
09/07/2021​
451​
08/07/2021​
488​
07/07/2021​
461​
06/07/2021​
458​
05/07/2021​
416​
04/07/2021​
390​
03/07/2021​
323​
02/07/2021​
307​
01/07/2021​
295​
30/06/2021​
331​
29/06/2021​
283​



1626168885028.png
 

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Tbh I think the fuss around masks is complete nonsense, the time when they are most effective is when they are generally taken off (face to face contact ie sat down in a pub or house) so losing them will have minimal effect

Vaccine passports and incentives for the under 30’s to take up their jabs are the way to go.

Being told you won’t be going to a meal, pub, large event, nightclub or on holiday for the next 12 months without 2 jabs would send take up through the roof.

Much better than having to force jabs on 13 year olds to hit HI
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
It's irrelevant really - most people seem to have given up weeks ago anyway. Certainly what I am seeing.
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My experience is that masks in shops largely worn, footfall is still controlled, there are measures in place and being observed that limit the spread.

Pubs and restaurants are trickier and unless I can sit outside I give them a swerve anyway. I also prefer table service, cramming at a bar was never my idea of a good time.

But it’s not irrelevant, observance of the rules may be fraying in places, but binning the rules overnight isn’t the answer. It gives no one any cover to be sensible.
 
Del_Bosque said:
Tbh I think the fuss around masks is complete nonsense, the time when they are most effective is when they are generally taken off (face to face contact ie sat down in a pub or house) so losing them will have minimal effect

Vaccine passports and incentives for the under 30’s to take up their jabs are the way to go.

Being told you won’t be going to a meal, pub, large event, nightclub or on holiday for the next 12 months without 2 jabs would send take up through the roof.

Much better than having to force jabs on 13 year olds to hit HI
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Disagree on masks. Shops, public transport are areas where it makes sense to keep them. Agree on vaccine passports.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
WTF?

I literally just posted you the last set of modelling and that we're substantially *above* the central scenario.

You've got "over-egged" fixed in your mind and you're completely ignoring reality.

Here it is again with more details and references

The actual England data since that projection is...

datenewAdmissions
10/07/2021​
442​
09/07/2021​
451​
08/07/2021​
488​
07/07/2021​
461​
06/07/2021​
458​
05/07/2021​
416​
04/07/2021​
390​
03/07/2021​
323​
02/07/2021​
307​
01/07/2021​
295​
30/06/2021​
331​
29/06/2021​
283​



View attachment 21225
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Sorry that model you like quoting is based on the last two points not the average. Hospitalisaions and cases will undershoot the models again.
Disastrous for the public perception of scientific method.
For example, Healdplace's recent numbers in the North West (ahead of the rest of the country) bare little relationship to the models.
At the moment there are also 0.71 discharges per admission - much higher than January at the same point in the infection curve.
When I have time I'll do a proper analysis of the model but that won't be for a while as I have a major IT roll out to deal with.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
Sorry that model you like quoting is based on the last two points not the average
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Complete bollocks. I've just given you the daily figures to go with it. Every day. Plot 'em.

And as for
BlueAnorak said:
Hospitalisaions and cases will undershoot the models again.
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I've literally just posted you the data that shows the precise and exact opposite!
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
My 10-year-old daughter told to isolate for ten days today after a girl tested positive in her class.

That is now her fourth time in six months, five for my son since December.

Independent learners well before their time, very proud of their commitment and application.

Must admit, getting end of my tether, as it basically means I also have to isolate as she is too young to be left home alone!!
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My 12 year old daughter felt sick at school today so has been sent home and asked to get a PCR test. Went theough GOV website and they offered a nearest test site 55 miles away!! Rang the helpline and got the same to which even Olga who took my call couldnt believe!

so now have to wait for a test through the post, presumably her 2 brothers and me and her mum have to isolate (and work full time!) until we know any results. Just been on the GOV website again and there now isnt one test site available in the whole of England!

I can understand why some people have given up!
 
robbieh said:
A friend of mine in his early sixties had the Johnson jab. A month later got Covid and was pretty unwell for 10 day.Lost weight, didn't want to eat and totally exhausted.
Just posting this as a warning to the older members in here. Vaccination might keep you out if hospital but you can still get it.
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This. I’ve had both Astra jabs and got it. Feeling a lot better today, was under the weather for 3 days or so - yesterday was worst was out of breathe doing the most basic of tasks. Mrs MB had both Pfizer ones and is still massively struggling with it after 5 days so far.

And it’s not yet the older members who should pay heed
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Complete bollocks. I've just given you the daily figures to go with it. Every day. Plot 'em.

And as for


I've literally just posted you the data that shows the precise and exact opposite!
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Admission numbers are gross not netted off against discharges. 500 admission will come with around 355 discharges. A net ncrease of around 145! Going to take a long time to burn through NHS capacity.
It will be obvious who is right in 3 weeks time.
 
Del_Bosque said:
Tbh I think the fuss around masks is complete nonsense, the time when they are most effective is when they are generally taken off (face to face contact ie sat down in a pub or house) so losing them will have minimal effect

Vaccine passports and incentives for the under 30’s to take up their jabs are the way to go.

Being told you won’t be going to a meal, pub, large event, nightclub or on holiday for the next 12 months without 2 jabs would send take up through the roof.

Much better than having to force jabs on 13 year olds to hit HI
Click to expand...
This is my hunch as well. Especially the cotton type washable masks we all wear, and the fact that most people don't wear them 'properly' over the nose anyway.

As I say, it's only a hunch and I'm not a medical professional so could be talking complete shite, but I think the fuss over masks has been massively overblown and their effect is more psychological - seeing them reminds people there's a pandemic so they're likely to be a *little bit* more careful about distancing, hygiene etc.

I think this is why such a fuss over wearing them has been made over the last year, it's about instilling social habits.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Admission numbers are gross not netted off against discharges 500 admission will with around 355 discharges. A net ncrease of around 145! Going to take a long time to burn through NHS capacity.
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So? What's your point?

The admission numbers gross were modelled and have overshot the last model significantly.

The precise opposite of what you wrote.
 
metalblue said:
This. I’ve had both Astra jabs and got it. Feeling a lot better today, was under the weather for 3 days or so - yesterday was worst was out of breathe doing the most basic of tasks. Mrs MB had both Pfizer ones and is still massively struggling with it after 5 days so far.

And it’s not yet the older members who should pay heed
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My partner has it and is double vaxed. I started with somthing 3 days ago that was blasted by my immune system overnight. So much so I tested -ve the following afternoon.
Vacines only prevent illness for most - they minimise the symptoms for most of the rest.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
I would have hoped so, but the continued rise strongly suggests otherwise, and all expert opinion (see modelling) says almost certainly not. But no-one knows for sure.
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I asked this question the other day. If we are not close to herd immunity WHAT is the data we get every week telling us that I post in here that over 90% as of 2 weeks ago had antibodies in the best UK nation and not much below in the rest and every single week it rises by several % points - one assumes both from vaccination and catching it.

These numbers must mean something unless 99% is not herd immunity which we are almost at by now in some areas, Or does it have to be say 1000%.

Or is there no such thing with Covid due to regular mutation?
 
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