Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
roubaixtuesday said:
Good point. I guess I'm coming from the perspective that the last thing we want to do is impact people's freedom to meet up in this sort of way, whereas what I would see as much less impactful measures of the sort I was suggesting might give us a better chance of avoiding those sorts of restrictions.

More testing and support for people testing positive to isolate is another such measure, IMV.

Of course, what I think is less impactful might not be the same as what you think.



Do you have a source for that? It would depend on community prevalence.

I've seen research suggesting far higher, even pre-Delta. For instance:

" Among the 16 persons in whom SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected, 12 (75%) were passengers seated in business class along with the only symptomatic person (attack rate 62%). Seating proximity was strongly associated with increased infection risk"

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Transmission of SARS-CoV 2 During Long-Haul Flight

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 During Long Flight
wwwnc.cdc.gov wwwnc.cdc.gov

There seems to be various dodgy stuff pushed by some airlines minimising the risks.
Click to expand...
Sorry I added an extra zero by accident, I've checked again and the number is 1 in 4300, it's however impossible to catch COVID if no-one on the flight has COVID which is quite likely. Planes are actually one of the safest places, they have ventilation, hospital grade filtering and everyone is tested before the flight. It's not like planes have thousands of people coming and go'ing either. A flight is really a gathering of 20 tested people sat in a relatively socially distanced place with excellent ventilation.

edition.cnn.com

The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say

According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

The only scenario in which you can catch COVID on a plane is that scenario where someone else has got a false negative result or they've caught the virus within the 3 day period between doing the test and the flight. Couple this with your chances of being sat near that person... I reckon you're more likely to be hit by a meteorite.

Flip this to the home scenario, no-one is tested before they go to someone's house, there is no social distancing, there is no ventilation and there are no masks. People also generally stay for long periods of time and they will hug, chat or whatever. Is it any surprise then that in reality this is the chief source of cases?

If we were so bothered about cases (I disagree that cases matter anyway) then we need to focus all measures unfortunately in homes and household contact. If the NHS is under the cosh over the winter then I'd start by restricting how many people can meet up in homes, or in the worst case stop them meeting at all.
 
inbetween said:
Sorry I added an extra zero by accident, I've checked again and the number is 1 in 4300, it's however impossible to catch COVID if no-one on the flight has COVID which is quite likely. Planes are actually one of the safest places, they have ventilation, hospital grade filtering and everyone is tested before the flight. It's not like planes have thousands of people coming and go'ing either. It's really only a gathering of 20 people in a relatively socially distanced place. Someone sitting at the back of a plane cannot give someone at the front of the plane.

edition.cnn.com

The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say

According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

The only scenario in which you can catch COVID on a plane is that scenario where someone else has got a false negative result or they've caught the virus within the 3 day period between doing the test and the flight. Couple this with your chances of being sat near that person... I reckon you're more likely to be hit by a meteorite.

Flip this to the home scenario, no-one is tested before they go to someone's house, there is no social distancing, there is no ventilation and there are no masks. People also generally stay for long periods of time and they will hug, chat or whatever. Is it any surprise then that in reality this is the chief source of cases?

If we were so bothered about cases (I disagree that cases matter anyway) then we need to focus all measures unfortunately in homes and household contact. If the NHS is under the cosh over the winter then I'd start by restricting how many people can meet up in homes, or in the worst case stop them meeting at all.
Click to expand...

But they won’t. They’ll stop people from going to pubs and gigs and football matches. So people will go round to each others houses to watch the footy and hang out instead…


I don’t think any of these things will happen btw. I can’t see the government putting any extra restrictions in place now, we just have to live/deal with it.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Not quite double tbf

ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
Click to expand...
I wonder if the 4 week gap used by Israel is having some sort of effect, compared to the 11/12 week gap we were using at the start?

Of course, as more and more people are vaccinated, the % of people both infected with and dying with covid will be greater in the vaccinated population and shouldn’t give cause for alarm.
 
inbetween said:
I think with the measures you have suggested we are missing the crux of this virus and how it spreads. We constantly hear of the need to put in measures that affect everyone but no-one ever considers measures that target the heart of transmission.

This virus predominately spreads in homes and in particular through sustained close contact with others. The only measures I would ever consider are those that target this fact, I.E, restrict how many people can meet. This is the only thing that truly makes a difference to case numbers.

Your chances of catching the virus on a plane is 1 in 40,000 but you have to wear a mask on a plane. Your chance of catching the virus in a supermarket is 1 in 80,000 and until recently we had social distancing and mask requirements in supermarkets. We have even seen nightclubs reopen and generally there has not been any real impact on cases.

Your chances of catching the virus in the home are almost 100% if you come into close contact with someone with the virus. We've just seen this with the large case rise a month or so back which was driven by people meeting at home for the Euros. It's silly that we wear masks in supermarkets where the risk is tiny but how many people wear masks when visitors come where the risk is huge?

If absolutely necessary we can halt transmission completely over the winter if we introduce measures to kerb people meeting up in households, the rest really doesn't matter.
Click to expand...
Good article by a Spanish paper
english.elpais.com

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure
english.elpais.com english.elpais.com

Ventilation and reducing exposure are key, masks work somewhat.
 
So we jab 12 year olds , but who are they passing it on to?
who are the people ending up in hospital?
unvaccinated?
Already vaccinated but underlying health issues?
Vaccinated but have health issues ?
 
marcus said:
So we jab 12 year olds , but who are they passing it on to?
Click to expand...
Each other, then it goes home to the parents.
They tend to pass it between each other loads more than other groups, because of being packed in schools, and also, that's just how kids live, they are super social compared to the rest of us.

marcus said:
who are the people ending up in hospital?
unvaccinated?
Already vaccinated but underlying health issues?
Vaccinated but have health issues ?
Click to expand...
All of those.

There's not many unvaccinated left now but they're over half of the hospitalisations.

Already vaccinated but with underlying health conditions - yes.

But it is a bit of a red herring, half the population has underlying health conditions.

And some unlucky people who are double jabbed, and have no other health conditions, will still end up in hospital, even dying.
 
inbetween said:
Sorry I added an extra zero by accident, I've checked again and the number is 1 in 4300, it's however impossible to catch COVID if no-one on the flight has COVID which is quite likely. Planes are actually one of the safest places, they have ventilation, hospital grade filtering and everyone is tested before the flight. It's not like planes have thousands of people coming and go'ing either. A flight is really a gathering of 20 tested people sat in a relatively socially distanced place with excellent ventilation.

edition.cnn.com

The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say

According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

The only scenario in which you can catch COVID on a plane is that scenario where someone else has got a false negative result or they've caught the virus within the 3 day period between doing the test and the flight. Couple this with your chances of being sat near that person... I reckon you're more likely to be hit by a meteorite.

Flip this to the home scenario, no-one is tested before they go to someone's house, there is no social distancing, there is no ventilation and there are no masks. People also generally stay for long periods of time and they will hug, chat or whatever. Is it any surprise then that in reality this is the chief source of cases?

If we were so bothered about cases (I disagree that cases matter anyway) then we need to focus all measures unfortunately in homes and household contact. If the NHS is under the cosh over the winter then I'd start by restricting how many people can meet up in homes, or in the worst case stop them meeting at all.
Click to expand...
Just on the plane issue. Need to be clear, you don’t always need to be vaccinated or tested before boarding a flight. Went to Gibraltar in June, no pre test needed or vaccine status. Rule was test within 24 hours of landing.
Spain now needs no test pre flight if you’re double vaccinated.
Every outbound flight from UK different rules depending on destination. Inbound to UK everyone needs a test.
 
Cases in the Netherlands slightly down today, 2,524, but that is after days of rises (seven-day average is 2,449 new cases and 49 hospitalisations).

Universities and colleges recommence soon, with this week akin to freshers week, on steroids, so I imagine the new cases will rise by more next week.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top