Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SilverFox2]

Crazy decision.

I've posted research on here before showing there's a clear risk benefit to the children themselves. JCVI have never, to date, published any quantitative rationale for their position.

It seems against all the evidence, mere hand waving.

Meanwhile, we can expect pretty much every single child to get the delta variant. And yet more disruption to education as a result. And more transmission, hospitalisation and death to vulnerable family members.

3000 u18s have been hospitalised to date.

Almost every other developed country is doing this.

We've lost the plot.

Here in Almeria (a Province within Andalucia) all the 12 to 18 year Olds have been vaccinated.
The 0 to 11 year Olds were started last Monday and all will be finished before school starts in 2 weeks.
Is there any disadvantage to this,?

As I posted earlier the nurse at our local Campo Doctors Surgery is now giving booster jabs to all of us over 60.
Haven't got a clue what it consist of but it seemingly doesn't matter which vaccine we have we get the same booster.
What could be the disadvantage?

Today's figures for yesterday locally are 26 active cases in last 14 days.
For the whole of Andalucia with 8.5 million inhabitants just 10 admissions 1 to ICU with zero deaths.
82.9 percent of Andalucian population has now been vaccinated twice.

 

[BlueAnorak]

And the cheeky barstewards are overtaking us in the vaccine race as well!
Who'd a'thought it.

Only because a large chunk of our youth don't want to be vaccinated and would rather catch it instead. Their wish will be with them soon enough.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Crazy decision.

I've posted research on here before showing there's a clear risk benefit to the children themselves. JCVI have never, to date, published any quantitative rationale for their position.

It seems against all the evidence, mere hand waving.

Meanwhile, we can expect pretty much every single child to get the delta variant. And yet more disruption to education as a result. And more transmission, hospitalisation and death to vulnerable family members.

3000 u18s have been hospitalised to date.

Almost every other developed country is doing this.

We've lost the plot.

As I said, it was of marginal benefit to the children concerned and many senior medics agree with that position hence the JCVI decision.
It would appear that expanding the groups in the 12-15 catagoey that will be vaccinated probably covers most of those at risk. Seeing the detailed report will make that clear (or not).

 

[Len Rum]

BBC reporting flu jabs delayed due to HGV driver shortage!
WTF?

 

[Healdplace]

REGIONS, NW AND GREATER MANCHESTER HIGHLIGHTS


EAST UP BY 1410 - BIGGEST RISE TODAY - TO 3597 V 2596 - UP 1001 IN WEEK!

LONDON UP BY 153 - TO 3530 V 3355 - UP 175 IN WEEK

LONDON NOW HAS OVER ONE MILLION CASES - FIRT REGION TO DO SO

SOUTH EAST FALLS BY 341 TO 4474 V 3887 - UP 587 IN WEEK

SOUTH WEST UP BY 279 TO 3626 V 3209 - UP 417 IN WEEK

EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 606 TO 3197 V 2919 - UP 278 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP BY 1147 SECOND BIGGEST RISE TODAY TO 3937 V 3174 - UP 763 IN WEEK

NORTH EAST FALLS BY 394 TO 1332 V 1301 - UP 31 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE FALLS BY 384 TO 3046 V 3025 - UP 21 IN WEEK



BOTH OTHER NORTHERN REGIONS DOWN TODAY DESPITE BIG ENGLAND CASES RISE AND ALL BUT FLAT V LAST WEEK.

HOWEVER.....

NW UP BY 562 TO 4477 - most in 6 weeks & back ahead of everyone - including the South East - which fell.


Week to week NW UP 972 from 3505 .

Only East was up more week to week





From these numbers GM was up by 217 of that 562 (from 1408 to 1625) - which is around the expected rise by population.

THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST GM TOTAL SINCE 22 JULY



NW week to week rise was 972. Second most today.

GM from that week to week NW rise was UP by 318 - which is actually under the expected rise at about 32%


Within GM

MANCHESTER 316 - UP 43 on day & UP 74 wk to wk

MANCHESTER ENTERED THE 15K CLUB YESTERDAY AND ON 15, 083 IS 15 AHEAD OF OLDHAM AS GM HIGHEST POP SCORE

STOCKPORT 221 - UP 49 on day & UP 81 wk to wk - Easily the worst GM numbers today and highest Stockport score since 22 July. POP SCORE 11 846 LOWEST IN GM - JUST

TAMESIDE 179 - UP 21 on day & UP 32 wk to wk - Zoe cannot ever get Tameside data right it seems but it is in a fight for worst weekly Pop Score in GM with neighbour Stockport. POP SCORE 13, 108

WIGAN 169 - UP 22 on day & UP 25 wk to wk - like the two above not doing well right now Indeed it entered the 14 K club today - POP SCORE 14, 016

SALFORD 159 - UP 16 on day & UP 17 wk to wk - edging up today as Zoe predicted POP SCORE 14, 714

TRAFFORD 136 - UP 16 on day & UP 32 Wk to wk - better than Stockport again rising by 57 Pop Score points today it whereas SK was up 75 - highest in GM today and in some time - taking 18 Pop Score points back from Stockport cutting the deficit on SKs lowest GM Pop Score to now just 49 AT 11, 895.

STOCKPORT AND TRAFFORD ARE 2 OR 3 DAYS AWAY FROM ENTERING THE 12 K CLUB AFTER JUST OVER 40 DAYS IN THE 10K AND 11K CLUBS BY MONDAY ONE OR BOTH MAY BE THERE

BOLTON 125 - UP 21 on day & UP 9 wk to wk - Bolton JUST - but at 43 had it biggest rise in a while today. POP SCORE 14, 320

OLDHAM 124 - LEVEL on day & UP 25 wk to wk - Entered 15 K club with Manchester yesterday. POP SCORE 15, 068

ROCHDALE 99 - UP 17 on day & UP 7 wk to wk - just made it sub 100 - POP SCORE 14, 549.

BURY 97 - UP 12 on day & UP 6 wk to wk - like Rochdale - just. POP SCORE 13, 945 - 14 K club beckons tomorrw

 

[Healdplace]

GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Rochdale 537, Bury 585, Oldham 646, Bolton 693, Trafford 784 , Salford 871 . Wigan 956 , Tameside 982, Stockport 1132, Manchester 1582


Stockport's numbers have put it as second to Manchester - and these two are the only ones over 1000 and both had big rises today.

Tameside may well top the 1K tomorrow too. And Wigan not far off.

Indeed for first time in a while every borough increased its weekly score today. Last occurred in July.



Rochdale meanwhile has secured top spot from both Bury and Oldham.

Bolton has slipped back a bit lately.

 

[Healdplace]

GM WEEKLY POP SCORES


Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)

NB:- These are now versus the week when the population was readjusted so some of the 4 week old Pop scores are artificially low for the next few days on that 4 week old comparison. The other more recent data here is unaffected. And in a few days neither will the 4 week old data be.



OLDHAM 228 // 312 // DOWN 84 WAS 317 (down 89)

BOLTON 240 // 227 // UP 13 WAS 158 (up 82)

ROCHDALE 281 // 289 //DOWN 8 WAS 206 (Up 75)

MANCHESTER 285 // 301 // DOWN 16 WAS 285 (LEVEL)

WIGAN 289 // 286 // UP 3 WAS 151 (up 138)

BURY 307 // 281 // UP 26 WAS 311 ( Down 4)

TRAFFORD 330 // 339 // DOWN 9 WAS 295 (up 35)

SALFORD 332 // 401 // DOWN 69 WAS 203 (Up 129)

STOCKPORT 384 // 360 // UP 24 WAS 285 (up 99)

TAMESIDE 433 // 423v // UP 10 WAS 240 (Up 193)


Oldham's big drops lately keep top spot from Bolton.

Tameside is clearly in most trouble well ahead of the rest and up the most across the past month but even here is flattening off a little.

But Stockport is still struggling behind it and a gap has opened now to an improving Salford which was where Trafford is 2 or 3 weeks ago .

 

[True_Blue69]

Utterly absurd. Scared of lawsuits or just scared of making decisions. And at the same time they will plead with families to help out Afghan refugees. Who are quite likely to get vaccinations here ASAP as they, of course. absolutely should.

This decision will inevitably kill people caught in the cross fire of their younger family and they have to know it.

They will pay the price in the end but so will many others this Winter I fear as I suspect they will fudge some of the booster jabs too.

The world will wonder how the UK managed to throw away the early advantage and success we had and end up next year in a bigger mess than many major nations thanks to the bizarre way we are stage managing the end game.

Hard to fathom some of these decisions. Which will backfire and they will probably then come up with someone else to try to blame when they do.

I presume they will be telling all the old and vulnerable not to go near their families this winter? Or if it ends up as it might they will just blame them retrospectively for not being cautious enough.

At the very least our leader should be out there fronting the nation telling us why the choice is not with the families to inoculate or not. As it should be.

I trust the scientists over anyone on here. Vaccines don’t stop you catching or spreading it so your post is massively overdramatic. If we do end up in turmoil again it will be to the vaccines not doing their job not through kids not being jabbed.

 

[Healdplace]

Only because a large chunk of our youth don't want to be vaccinated and would rather catch it instead. Their wish will be with them soon enough.

Just in time to give granny a coffin for Christmas if they are one of the unlucky ones.

 

[Healdplace]

I trust the scientists over anyone on here. Vaccines don’t stop you catching or spreading it so your post is massively overdramatic. If we do end up in turmoil again it will be to the vaccines not doing their job not through kids not being jabbed.

Guess we will see over the next few months who is right.

I genuinely do really hope that you are.

Will be very happy to be wrong on this one.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I trust the scientists over anyone on here. Vaccines don’t stop you catching or spreading it so your post is massively overdramatic. If we do end up in turmoil again it will be to the vaccines not doing their job not through kids not being jabbed.

It's very hard to find scientists who agree with the JCVI.

They're an absolute outlier in the scientific community in the UK and internationally.

Vaccines *do* massively reduce the risk of catching it and do reduce the risk of spreading it too, though the latter less so and not well quantified with Delta.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Guess we will see over the next few months who is right

Not really a matter of right or wrong IMO, rather risk.

If a couple of people race round the M60, we don't conclude they were right to do it if no-one dies, we think they're taking an unreasonable risk.

There's a risk of significant injury, death and societal disruption from COVID this winter. We should be reducing that risk IMO, though there's a chance everything may turn out OK regardless.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It's very hard to find scientists who agree with the JCVI.

They're an absolute outlier in the scientific community in the UK and internationally.

Vaccines *do* massively reduce the risk of catching it and do reduce the risk of spreading it too, though the latter less so and not well quantified with Delta.

Scientists don't have the strict Hippocrstic Oath that medics do (and yes Scientists do have their own ethical rules). The bottom line is that Treatment has to have clear benefit to the patient (in this case the person being vaccinated) and treating an individual to benefit others is not allowed. Oh and marginal benefits don't count.
The JCVI has decided that the benefit is not sufficient.
I think they should be vaccinated but I'm not a medic.
It could be overuled by the 4 nation's CMOs but I think that is unlikely though it could happen.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Scientists don't have the strict Hippocrstic Oath that medics do (and yes Scientists do have their own ethical rules). The bottom line is that Treatment has to have clear benefit to the patient (in this case the person being vaccinated) and treating an individual to benefit others is not allowed. Oh and marginal benefits don't count.
The JCVI has decided that the benefit is not sufficient.
I think they should be vaccinated but I'm not a medic.
It could be overuled by the 4 nation's CMOs but I think that is unlikely though it could happen.

I think it's very likely to be overturned, in scientists I include medical scientists, and medics opinion seems to me to be the same, worldwide.

I'd like to see a full benefit risk analysis, and a definition of "marginal".

The JCVI seem to be a clear outlier to other medical and scientific opinion and analysis.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Scientists don't have the strict Hippocrstic Oath that medics do (and yes Scientists do have their own ethical rules). The bottom line is that Treatment has to have clear benefit to the patient (in this case the person being vaccinated) and treating an individual to benefit others is not allowed. Oh and marginal benefits don't count.
The JCVI has decided that the benefit is not sufficient.
I think they should be vaccinated but I'm not a medic.
It could be overuled by the 4 nation's CMOs but I think that is unlikely though it could happen.

We’ll be vaccinating 12-15 year olds, and id say it starts as soon as next week. The decision will be made based on the ‘wider benefits’ of vaccinating children.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

We've missed the school bus, should have been done during the holidays, I know cases v hospitalisation v death isn't anywhere near as bad as it was (so far) compared to last winter but should immunity wane/fall off a cliff which could happen as we're sailing into the unknown, not getting the kids sorted could come back to bite us on the arse.

 

[True_Blue69]

I think it's very likely to be overturned, in scientists I include medical scientists, and medics opinion seems to me to be the same, worldwide.

I'd like to see a full benefit risk analysis, and a definition of "marginal".

The JCVI seem to be a clear outlier to other medical and scientific opinion and analysis.

12-15 year olds aren’t the issue. The benefits are known to be marginal, the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching or spreading it, no point in wasting vaccines on kids.

 

[Marvin]

I think it's very likely to be overturned, in scientists I include medical scientists, and medics opinion seems to me to be the same, worldwide.

I'd like to see a full benefit risk analysis, and a definition of "marginal".

The JCVI seem to be a clear outlier to other medical and scientific opinion and analysis.

According to press reports, that's because of their remit.

Meanwhile the rest of the world, particularly in Europe, the Far East and South America are catching up with the UK in terms of vaccination and in some cases overtaking us. We need to organise the booster jabs and vaccination for > 12 year olds asap.

Boosters, if they are as effective as claimed, could have a very significant impact in the population who receive them. I am very keen to get a 3rd jab, and for my elderly parents to get them too. That way, I can forget about Covid as a personal risk for months to come, and get through this Winter doing normal things.

If we don't proceed with the next obvious stages in vaccination then the situation will deteriorate gradually. We all know this which is presumably why it will happen only we are falling behind the curve now

View attachment 25775

That chart is a proxy for advanced societies and it is noticeable that USA, the UK and Germany are not doing so well.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Scientists don't have the strict Hippocrstic Oath that medics do (and yes Scientists do have their own ethical rules). The bottom line is that Treatment has to have clear benefit to the patient (in this case the person being vaccinated) and treating an individual to benefit others is not allowed. Oh and marginal benefits don't count.
The JCVI has decided that the benefit is not sufficient.
I think they should be vaccinated but I'm not a medic.
It could be overuled by the 4 nation's CMOs but I think that is unlikely though it could happen.

We’ll be vaccinating 12-15 year olds, and id say it starts as soon as next week. the decision will be made based on the ‘wider benefits’ of vaccinating children.

 

[Marvin]

12-15 year olds aren’t the issue. The benefits are known to be marginal, the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching or spreading it, no point in wasting vaccines on kids.

But those adults who are unvaccinated are unlikely now to get vaccinated.

A 3rd dose of the current vaccines is likely to stop transmission at least I hope that will be confirmed next week.