Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Citizen Mike]

the data is interesting on the current cases. The best performers and most vaccinated is performing the worst and the best performance is from Manchester who has been one of the worst performers over the pandemic and have the least vaccinated. I wonder if some kind of herd immunity is driving this.?

 

[Healdplace]

the data is interesting on the current cases. The best performers and most vaccinated is performing the worst and the best performance is from Manchester who has been one of the worst performers over the pandemic and have the least vaccinated. I wonder if some kind of herd immunity is driving this.?

Yes I posed this question in my report last night and it is a puzzle. Though the difference in GM is not that huge. It just looks it because Manchester is doing remarkably well.

The high level of young people catching it now is clearly a factor and so population age profiles may be more important locally than vaccination levels in case numbers.

It is worth noting for instance that as of now even though Stockport has had so many cases far fewer are dying in Stepping Hill than in Manchester still. Though there will be a lag and that might yet change in coming weeks.

The herd immunity argument is very unclear to me as it has been presumed not to be a thing with Covid because it keeps mutating like the cold virus so no matter how often you catch one type you might still get the next one too.

But we have no real experience to know to what extent the second or third time we get Covid it becomes more or less virulent due to any residual immunity built up via both vaccines and the T cells etc mobilised by your body having fought it off before.

It is conceivable that over time this will make Covid a still infectious but (like a cold) mostly relatively innocuous disease.

But I expect we need more data over a longer period to really know.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

10 deaths - was 10 last week

2485 cases - was 2298 last week

10.1% positivity - was 10.2% last week

532 patients - was 428 last week

47 ventilated - was 48 last week

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

NOT QUITE SO GOOD NEWS TODAY. THOUGH COULD BE WORSE. AGAIN!

Predicted cases are

UP FROM 44, 459 TO 45, 081 - a rise of of 622 following a rise of 719 yesterday - But after a fall of 465 and 1949 the days before.

It WAS 47, 277 last Wednesday - a FALL week to week of 2196 versus a fall yesterday of 2535 and 2408 two days ago.

SO FAIRLY FLAT WITH A SLOW EDGING UPWARD NOT UNCOMMON IN MIDWEEK


Ongoing symptomatic cases also fall for the sixteenth day running.


FROM 658, 507 TO 654, 534 - A fall of 3973 after a fall of 3256 yesterday and falls of 7276, 10, 561, 1392, 5951,4129, 4595. 4710 in past week.

IT WAS 691, 072 last Wednesday. A weekly fall of 36, 638 - DOWN from 37, 160 yesterday.

There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West UP slightly again to 712 / 948 FROM 707 / 941 - SMALL ENOUGH TO KNOCK THE REGION DOWN TO FIFTTH highest of the 12 regions - one lower than yesterday.


WALES stay top and UP a bit. Scotland FALLS well and goes right down from third to sixth.

MORE IMPORTANTLY WALES NOW RISES INTO THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE AS THE SOLE OCCUPANT

North East is the BIGGEST riser of the day and jumps up from fifth to third & above the NW now.

UP a lot on 699 / 1113 FROM 628 / 1022


Yorkshire stays in second but is UP today more than the North West.

N Ireland also goes UP a fair bit and enough to take it back into the higher watch zone yesterday and now today to go above North West into fourth place.

UP today on 446 / 1335 FROM 410 / 1277.




East Midlands rises into the second tier watch zone just below Scotland

Indeed East Midlands is UP again today on 651 / 912 FROM 629 / 884

This leaves only three in the zone below - West Mdlands, East and London

With South East & South West in the lowest of all watch zones.

AS YOU CAN SEE AND AS THE DAILY DATA FOR REAL IS SUPPORTING THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE ALL OUTPERFORMING THE MORE NORTHERLY ONES.



South West is the BEST in the UK and again DOWN today - just!: FROM 403 / 553 TO 401 / 552

It has been joined in that lowest zone by South East EDGING UP on 427 / 538 FROM 425 / 535.



LONDON - though - is DOWN on 453 / 605 FROM 470 / 623


West Midlands is UP on 478 / 704 FROM 470 / 695 and East UP on 482 / 647 FROM 478 / 640.



UP TOP:-

WALES slightly UP on 838 / 1187 FROM 836 / 1182 - but still easily the highest in the UK

Yorkshire UP too in second on 804 / 1089 FROM 777 / 1055

Scotland falling from third to sixth in one go) DOWN today too on 693 / 961 FROM 701 / 968

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Rochdale stays the new leader and is UP big on 16, 410 FROM 13, 920

Tameside are UP to second - matching the real case data where they were worse than Stockport yesterday - on 12, 207 FROM 10, 024 - though these numbers are as usual hard to trust but are more in line with the real daily cases

Stockport now third- technically UP - but as you see JUST! - on 10, 807 FROM 10, 800




EVERYONE ELSE STILL IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE


Trafford rises to fourth - matching higher recent numbers - UP on 9201 FROM 6668

Bury is fifth and DOWN on 7763 FROM 8709.

Bolton is UP too now in sixth after edging up in recent days on 7306 FROM 5667

Oldham is seventh but DOWN on 6353 FROM 6779

Manchester is eighth doing really well as the real cases show way DOWN on 6079 FROM 8615

Wigan stays ninth - though UP on 5992 FROM 4253


BUT BEST IN GM AFTER WEEKS OF DAILY FALLS IN THE REAL DATA TOO :-


Salford - though UP too a little on 3931 FROM 3355





REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is DOWN on 23, 129 FROM 30, 305 still THE highest in the NW.


Liverpool is DOWN a bit but well above all of GM on 19, 593 FROM 20, 840

Sefton a little DOWN on 14, 163 FROM 15, 208



So Merseyside not GM is still a problem in the North West as you can see according to Zoe. But GM is closer tp here than it was

Even Warrington is now over all of GM UP on 17, 287 FROM 16, 507


LAKE DISTRICT NORTH DOWN ON 19, 049 FROM 20, 033 AND LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE ON 18, 581 FROM 20, 863

ONLY ST HELENS IS HIGHER

The BBC by the way finally noticed the Lake District/Lancaster issues and reported on them yesterday using the 5 day old data - just as they have started to fall in the up to date data!



BUT THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN (sorry Andyhinch IS):-

Cheshire East which is really very surprisingly still shooting UP and now one of the highest scores it has had and only behind Liverpool and St Helens in the region.

UP to 19, 953 FROM 17, 766 - surprisingly well over Stockport which it usually tracks

Very unusual for Cheshire East to be above all GM boroughs - AND - as Chester and Cheshire West is DOWN on 14, 905 FROM 16, 374 this long troubled part of the NW is now well below Cheshre East.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

NB:- THESE ARE MOST UNUSUALLY GOOD VERSUS PAST WEEKS. AND MIDLANDS - WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST REGIONS DAILY - TODAY POSTS ZERO. SO I SUSPECT AN ISSUE - CERTAINLY IN THE MIDLANDS - MAY BE CAUSING SOME MISSING REPORTS FROM HERE TO CATCH UP TOMORROW - BUT EVEN WITH THE MIDLANDS NOT NIL THESE NUMBERS WOULD BE WELL DOWN IT SEEMS

68 with 13 North West - Last Week was 121 with 20 North West & 119 with 24 North West the week before.

BY REGION:-

15 East, 14 London, 20 NE & Yorkshire, 13 North West, 4 South East, 2 South West

NORTH WEST TRUSTS:-

4 Wirral, 2 each in East Cheshire & East Lancashire and 1 each in Chester, Mid Cheshire, Pennine Acute, Southport & Wigan

BY AGE:-

20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (8), 60 - 79 (23), 80 PLUS (34)

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

SOME GOOD NEWS HERE TODAY TOO

31 deaths - was 30 last week

3598 cases - was 4917 last week - No mention of data lag so I assume the issues are fixed

7.8% positivity - was 9.2% last week - Good fall here

1076 patients - down 31 on yesterday - was 1079 last week - Finally from big rises to a wk to wk fall.

82 ventilated icu - was 94 yesterday & 91 last week - lots of deaths today but still a big drop in recent days here too.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

AGAIN MOSTLY GOOD NEWS HERE

4 deaths - was 10 last week

1060 cases - was 1304 last week

5.5% positivity - was 5.6% last week

7738 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 7992 YESTERDAY & 9594 LAST WEEK

102 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS !03 YESTERDAY & 114 LAST WEEK

387 patients - was 384 yesterday & 426 last week - the only blot going up on day but down wk to wk

26 ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 33 last week




43.5% of the weekly cases were under 20. And 2.4% over 80 & 10.3% in total over 60.

This divergence is growing - far more teens and below than 60 and above by more than 4 to 1

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I think at the root, many people are afraid it's not over and struggle to cope with uncertainty.

It's the same thing with conspiracy theories, it's actually more comforting to believe somebody, even if malevolent, is controlling things than the reality that many things are beyond our control.

That's a great point. It's a bit like religion. People get comfort from the feeling everything happens by design. Not that faith in something is always a bad thing. The mental impact of Covid will be felt for many years.