Coronavirus (2021) thread

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RobMCFC said:
It not the data from South Africa that I was saying is anecdotal. Any data from first-world health systems is good data.

My "anecdotal" comment refers to the general public who chip in an say "it's pretty mild" of "it's not as bad as people are making out". My point is that this is not enough for the government to act on. I'm sure they are taking data from around the World, including South Africa, but they have to be sure that the curve of the virus there will be the same as here. Our climate, amongst other factors, could make a difference.
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Just to clarify - my “anecdotal” comment wasn’t said with “let’s lift all restrictions” in mind. It was more to do with how so many people are reporting how they’re feeling after getting Omicron which backs up a lot of what SA have been saying. No doubt some people will also still get seriously ill or worse from it so we can’t be totally dismissive of it.

I would also add that as of late last week the government hadn’t updated their main symptoms of Covid to include the main symptoms of Omicron. I’m currently presenting with 2 of the 5 main symptoms of Omicron - runny nose and sneezing - and neither of those were the original main Covid symptoms, and many others around the country are presenting with something similar so why the government haven’t updated to include this is utterly beyond me.

Edit - meant to say “wasn’t said”, not “was said”!
 
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PannickAtTheDisco said:
Well maybe the message should be not to all flood to hospital if you're feeling a bit rough with Covid? Abuse of A&E for easily treatable issues is one of the reasons they're overwhelmed.

Tell the GPs to either open up properly or they're getting a 50% tax levy on their earnings in the next budget.
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That’s a tricky one, isn’t it? You might find that even though the variant is not as severe (admittedly unknown), many people present at A&E requiring oxygen, but only for a short time and in small doses, and that they then quickly recover. That could see many people presenting at A&E, but they then return home and don’t require further treatment. One of the problems of having an ageing population in winter, many of whom have underlying conditions that might not have been adequately addressed for two years.
 
Hutchymcfc said:
It was obvious I was been sarcastic but it’s like 40% more

i believe she died cause of her weight , you believe she died cause she wasn’t no 1 right or wrong we have a difference of opinion
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Where are you getting 40% from?
 
Gabriel said:
I don’t think you will. Other countries with less ’protection’ have already imposed lockdowns, and during this period the UK generally goes into an almost self-imposed lockdown anyway. If sport Is cancelled because of cases amongst participants, then there will be a negligible amount of movement around the country.

*I reserve the right to delete this post after Johnson’s press conference…
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People are already altering their behaviour, Xmas bookings cancelled and if the football is off then, as you say, it will further depress the movement of people. I agree that Johnson imposing a formal lockdown is slim. They will be hoping our self imposed one will suffice.
 
grunge said:
If r0 was < 1 we'd be seeing a fall in cases rather than a spike in cases. Clearly 0.96 isn't right.
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There is no way that is correct. And it certainly won't be in the next few days. I suspect that whilst there are some people suffering from delta, in terms of numbers, it will be swamped by the end of the week with omicron data.
 
BobKowalski said:
People are already altering their behaviour, Xmas bookings cancelled and if the football is off then, as you say, it will further depress the movement of people. I agree that Johnson imposing a formal lockdown is slim. They will be hoping our self imposed one will suffice.
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they are . A self imposed one will suffice for the government unfortunately that’s a double whammy for hospitality .
they are allowed to open but don’t get assistance .
at least when they were forced to shut they got support.

now they can open but the government , well, emperor Whitty telling people not to go out.
 
BobKowalski said:
People are already altering their behaviour, Xmas bookings cancelled and if the football is off then, as you say, it will further depress the movement of people. I agree that Johnson imposing a formal lockdown is slim. They will be hoping our self imposed one will suffice.
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Agree. The government has sufficient data from retail, transport, and hospitality, amongst others, to know the effect that its warnings have had on the general public and its behavior. It will also know from the experience of the last two years which levers to pull and when. Politically, Johnson would be loathed to impose another lockdown, so far better to have the public impose one upon itself. Quite clever really.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Eh?

Why can’t you accept any positive looking data? Odd.
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its not positive looking data, Its incorrect, or an incorrect interpretation. there is literally no way the r0 is less than 1 right now. r0 < 1 means less cases. that is clearly not the case. there has been weekend lag since day one.

I assume they are doing a day to day calculation so the weekend lag is actually fluctuating it.

the same link you posted pointed out "The basic reproduction number R0 has increased to 5.36."
 
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johnnymarrsbarres said:
How the fuck are we supposed to pay for all this?

In 2020 I was all in favour of lockdowns, furlough, spending money and protecting people as it was needed.

We’re just in a whole different world now, with vaccines and treatments etc.
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By selling of the NHS, why else is Sunak is in California? They’ve the excuse now that this pandemic is costing the tax payer too much and they need to get outside help, ie sell it off to the highest bidders…. Watch this space. I’m certain of it.
 
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grunge said:
its not positive looking data, Its incorrect. there is literally no way the r0 is less than 1 right now. r0 < 1 means less cases. that is clearly not the case. there has been weekend lag since day one.

I assume they are doing a day to day calculation so the weekend lag is actually fluctuating it.

the same link you posted pointed out "The basic reproduction number R0 has increased to 5.36."
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Are there separate R numbers for Omicron and Delta, respectively, or just one number combined?
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
they are . A self imposed one will suffice for the government unfortunately that’s a double whammy for hospitality .
they are allowed to open but don’t get assistance .
at least when they were forced to shut they got support.

now they can open but the government , well, emperor Whitty telling people not to go out.
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Yes, it’s lockdown on the cheap. There needs to be financial support for the hospitality sector, we can’t expect ordinary people to take on the burden.

As for Whitty, not sure what you expect him to say. Yes there’s a new variant, we don’t have all the data, but signs from elsewhere are that it isn’t too bad, so ignore it and carry on?

A good proportion of people would have just heard ‘new variant’ and altered their behaviour anyway. No one wants to be sick at Christmas, even if it’s only mildly ill.
 
Gabriel said:
Are there separate R numbers for Omicron and Delta, respectively, or just one number combined?
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From the link posted it was a combination, I dont think there will be enough solid data to be able to split it out fully.

From what I have read, 1st strain of the virus had an R0 of 2/3, Alpha was about 5. Delta about 7 and Omicron is about 10.
 
Octavian said:
Where are you getting 40% from?
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covid.joinzoe.com

Is being overweight a COVID-19 risk?

In this article, we explore why obesity might be a risk factor for becoming seriously ill with COVID-19, and why it’s so important to gather data to understand who is most at risk.
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www.bmj.com

Covid-19: Why are age and obesity risk factors for serious disease?

Worldwide more than 41 million people have now been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and over a million people have died. But what makes this virus so difficult to control, and why are some people more at risk than others? Elisabeth Mahase reports Paul Lehner, professor of immunology and medicine at...
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