Coronavirus (2022) thread

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Tim of the Oak said:
More green shoots of economic recovery (although people cancelling Christmas parties might have reduced GDP in December).

UK economy above pre-Covid levels in November https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870
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Good news.

Travelling round the country I see a mixed picture; plenty of young folk in Hampshire market town cafes during the day (all on laptops !), loads of students on the streets of central Sheffield last night, but the genteel diner slow to come back to the chain dining pubs. Wetherspoons particularly hard hit.

On the upside, many pubs and cafes smartened themselves up during lockdown and moved to App ordering. And I read there's been fewer pub closures than we were seeing pre-2020.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Where things stand on vaccine effectiveness:

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Would it be fair to say that more people are dying 'with' COVID right now (because of the sheer volume of cases) as opposed to saying they're dying 'of' COVID?

A higher number of less severe cases means the virus will spread throughout hospitals and infect people who'd have died regardless? Therefore the death figure is inflated and vaccine effectiveness reduces?

Presumably, there's a way of comparing this with un-vaccinated people and the level of difference over time shows the effectiveness of vaccines? Or am I just being simple?
 
unicorn said:
Good news.

Travelling round the country I see a mixed picture; plenty of young folk in Hampshire market town cafes during the day (all on laptops !), loads of students on the streets of central Sheffield last night, but the genteel diner slow to come back to the chain dining pubs. Wetherspoons particularly hard hit.

On the upside, many pubs and cafes smartened themselves up during lockdown and moved to App ordering. And I read there's been fewer pub closures than we were seeing pre-2020.
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The app ordering thing is going to become a permanent fixture isn't it.

I'm far, far from a luddite. I'd describe myself as an early adopter in lots of things (see my posts in the digital tickets thread - think I was the only person who thought and still thinks it's a good idea) but app ordering in pubs and restaurants is an atrocious experience.

Every place has a different app you need to download. They're all shit and most don't even take Apple Pay so you need to type in your card number etc.

Absolute pain in the arse. Thankfully post-pandemic it's probably not going to be obligatory in most places, if they want to survive.

I was in the Produce Hall in Stockport over Christmas. The signs on the tables say to order via the QR code. Okay, so I tried it. Took ages to find the stuff I wanted, didn't take Apple Pay so had to type in the card number like in the victorian times, and then the order failed.

I walked up to the kitchen and explained. The guy took my order and I paid with my Apple Watch. It took about 5 seconds.

The whole app ordering thing is a solution looking for a problem.

Anyway rant over.

PS - the cynic in me also thinks the big chains will use it as an excuse to cut their labour force and have fewer waiting staff. Funny how Wetherspoons were the first to join on this bandwagon...
 
Manchester33 said:
Would it be fair to say that more people are dying 'with' COVID right now (because of the sheer volume of cases) as opposed to saying they're dying 'of' COVID?

A higher number of less severe cases means the virus will spread throughout hospitals and infect people who'd have died regardless? Therefore the death figure is inflated and vaccine effectiveness reduces?

Presumably, there's a way of comparing this with un-vaccinated people and the level of difference over time shows the effectiveness of vaccines? Or am I just being simple?
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I think the death figures are for sure including some "incidental" covid ie deaths "with" rather than "from".

And the number must be higher than ever, simply because the incidence is higher than ever.

But I think the arithmetic implies it must be a small proportion; only about 5% of the country has tested positive in the last 28 days, and of those, most are not in age ranges where many people die of non-covid conditions.

Your point that "with" deaths will skew vax effectiveness is right, I think. But again, I think the effect will be small, for the same reasons.

There could well be a proper analysis out there that shows something different.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think the death figures are for sure including some "incidental" covid ie deaths "with" rather than "from".

And the number must be higher than ever, simply because the incidence is higher than ever.

But I think the arithmetic implies it must be a small proportion; only about 5% of the country has tested positive in the last 28 days, and of those, most are not in age ranges where many people die of non-covid conditions.

Your point that "with" deaths will skew vax effectiveness is right, I think. But again, I think the effect will be small, for the same reasons.

There could well be a proper analysis out there that shows something different.
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Lots of testing is performed in the settings where people are at highest risk of death - hospitals and care homes, meaning the case figures would be skewed to those who are generally more vulnerable.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
The app ordering thing is going to become a permanent fixture isn't it.

I'm far, far from a luddite. I'd describe myself as an early adopter in lots of things (see my posts in the digital tickets thread - think I was the only person who thought and still thinks it's a good idea) but app ordering in pubs and restaurants is an atrocious experience.

Every place has a different app you need to download. They're all shit and most don't even take Apple Pay so you need to type in your card number etc.

Absolute pain in the arse. Thankfully post-pandemic it's probably not going to be obligatory in most places, if they want to survive.

I was in the Produce Hall in Stockport over Christmas. The signs on the tables say to order via the QR code. Okay, so I tried it. Took ages to find the stuff I wanted, didn't take Apple Pay so had to type in the card number like in the victorian times, and then the order failed.

I walked up to the kitchen and explained. The guy took my order and I paid with my Apple Watch. It took about 5 seconds.

The whole app ordering thing is a solution looking for a problem.

Anyway rant over.

PS - the cynic in me also thinks the big chains will use it as an excuse to cut their labour force and have fewer waiting staff. Funny how Wetherspoons were the first to join on this bandwagon...
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I feel like a caveman who's been thrust forward a few millenia. I don't have a smart phone (or a phone) or a smart watch (or a watch) but luckily I don't have much money either so this smart world shouldn't affect me too much. Hartlepool gets everything last so hopefully it's all failed before then.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think the death figures are for sure including some "incidental" covid ie deaths "with" rather than "from".

And the number must be higher than ever, simply because the incidence is higher than ever.

But I think the arithmetic implies it must be a small proportion; only about 5% of the country has tested positive in the last 28 days, and of those, most are not in age ranges where many people die of non-covid conditions.

Your point that "with" deaths will skew vax effectiveness is right, I think. But again, I think the effect will be small, for the same reasons.

There could well be a proper analysis out there that shows something different.
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Fair enough, thanks for explaining.

Looking at that data, there's still a hell of a lot of evidence to support why people should go and get vaccinated/double jabbed/boosted if they aren't already.
 
Manchester33 said:
Fair enough, thanks for explaining.

Looking at that data, there's still a hell of a lot of evidence to support why people should go and get vaccinated/double jabbed/boosted if they aren't already.
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Surely any muppet who hasn't seen enough evidence and had their jabs by now is too far down the bullshit rabbit hole and beyond help.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
The app ordering thing is going to become a permanent fixture isn't it.

I'm far, far from a luddite. I'd describe myself as an early adopter in lots of things (see my posts in the digital tickets thread - think I was the only person who thought and still thinks it's a good idea) but app ordering in pubs and restaurants is an atrocious experience.

Every place has a different app you need to download. They're all shit and most don't even take Apple Pay so you need to type in your card number etc.

Absolute pain in the arse. Thankfully post-pandemic it's probably not going to be obligatory in most places, if they want to survive.

I was in the Produce Hall in Stockport over Christmas. The signs on the tables say to order via the QR code. Okay, so I tried it. Took ages to find the stuff I wanted, didn't take Apple Pay so had to type in the card number like in the victorian times, and then the order failed.

I walked up to the kitchen and explained. The guy took my order and I paid with my Apple Watch. It took about 5 seconds.

The whole app ordering thing is a solution looking for a problem.

Anyway rant over.

PS - the cynic in me also thinks the big chains will use it as an excuse to cut their labour force and have fewer waiting staff. Funny how Wetherspoons were the first to join on this bandwagon...
Click to expand...

I love ordering using apps or PWA. There's nothing more frustrating than queuing at a rammed bar where the lack of a vagina adds 10/15 minutes onto your wait. You also get coke-heads shoving past people rather than waiting their turn.

The perfect middle ground is to offer both, so that civilised beings like myself can sit in the comfort of my chair and order my food/drinks, while the riff-raff dry hump each other at the bar.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
Surely any muppet who hasn't seen enough evidence and had their jabs by now is too far down the bullshit rabbit hole and beyond help.
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Risk is a peculiar thing and people measure risk in a variety of ways. For example, 7 million people still smoke fags in the uk.
About 3000 British people will have died from the effects of smoking already in 2022 and yet…
 
Thought you might like to see today's Zoe App Graph in here. Much more detail will be on the Data thread.

But it now clearly shows the wave has peaked. Gives the date of that as 11 Jan for that peak and the rate of fall since has been increasing.

At the peak of the wave according to Zoe 3 days ago 4% (1 in 25) of the UK population - or 2,744,040 people - had ongoing Covid cases.

Only one region of the UK is currently still increasing. The other 11 are falling. The only one still going up and currently most infected per population is North East England. But this is one of the smallest by population in the UK so will have minimal impact on case numbers.

1642164639430.png
 
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BBC news have just informed that it is complicated as to whether cases are falling.

Case data is a few days old. We do not know if cases are really falling yet. True to a degree.

Or we could just look at the graph above which is not from data days old as the BBC note our daily numbers are (partly true). The app is much more instant. Why I posted it. It matches what the daily cases are showing anyway. So I think we can be pretty confident now.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
The app ordering thing is going to become a permanent fixture isn't it.

I'm far, far from a luddite. I'd describe myself as an early adopter in lots of things (see my posts in the digital tickets thread - think I was the only person who thought and still thinks it's a good idea) but app ordering in pubs and restaurants is an atrocious experience.

Every place has a different app you need to download. They're all shit and most don't even take Apple Pay so you need to type in your card number etc.

Absolute pain in the arse. Thankfully post-pandemic it's probably not going to be obligatory in most places, if they want to survive.

I was in the Produce Hall in Stockport over Christmas. The signs on the tables say to order via the QR code. Okay, so I tried it. Took ages to find the stuff I wanted, didn't take Apple Pay so had to type in the card number like in the victorian times, and then the order failed.

I walked up to the kitchen and explained. The guy took my order and I paid with my Apple Watch. It took about 5 seconds.

The whole app ordering thing is a solution looking for a problem.

Anyway rant over.

PS - the cynic in me also thinks the big chains will use it as an excuse to cut their labour force and have fewer waiting staff. Funny how Wetherspoons were the first to join on this bandwagon...
Click to expand...
Excellent rant.

If the ordering app works, I'm fine with it. Cutting staff costs through IT is what we used to call productivity. At a popular Newport cafe yesterday I queued for 5 minutes at the till, then I was told the queue was only for take-out and I needed to order via the QR code at my table. Took me 6 minutes after endless questions. Could have ordered in 6 seconds with my Google Pay at the counter. Labour saving, but as you say rarely time-saving.
 
Healdplace said:
BBC news have just informed that it is complicated as to whether cases are falling.

Case data is a few days old. We do not know if cases are really falling yet. True.

Or they could just look at the graph above which is not from data days old as the BBC note our daily numbers are (partly true). The app is much more instant. Why I posted it. It matches what the daily cases are showing anyway. So I think we can be pretty confident now.
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It’ll be post peak in some areas, peaking in others and pre peak elsewhere.

The overall U.K. peak may well have happened though.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
It’ll be post peak in some areas, peaking in others and pre peak elsewhere.

The overall U.K. peak may well have happened though.
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Whilst true in the general sense. As I noted above - and according to Zoe - only the North East of England in the 12 UK regions - has been going up at all in the past couple of days. The other 11 are all falling pretty steadily now.

There are still pockets within the regional areas where numbers are very high - Salford,Liverpool and Leicester are the three highest rated city areas in the UK right now. Leicester the worst of the three with the highest numbers in the UK.
 
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Healdplace said:
Whilst true in the general sense. As I noted above - and according to Zoe - only the North East of England in the 12 UK regions - has been going up at all in the past couple of days. The rest are all falling pretty steadily now.

There are still areas where numbers are very high - Salford,Liverpool and Leicester are the three highest rated city areas in the UK right now.
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It may just be semantics though. I know the NW NHS trust are expecting the peak to end in the NW in a couple of weeks.

There could well be a sustained plateau for a little while. This isn’t peaking, but isn’t falling either.
 
Alphonso Davies has temporarily stopped training with Bayern Munich after being diagnosed with mild myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle.
 
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