Coronavirus (2022) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Hahahaahhahahaha says the forums weirdo

It's looking like weird is the new blue on here at the moment.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital patients down by 204 to 9600 today. Ventilators down 23 to 303.

Low points since mid Summer last year.

UK ventilator totals are also the lowest since then as they have just another 29 atop (6 in Northern Ireland, 11 in Scotland & 12 in Wales)

North West has 42 - it was 59 last week.

Full numbers on the data thread for anyone interested.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Impending financial doom? The economy is up 7.5% in the last year, back to levels just 2% below where they were before the pandemic started. We are currently experiencing the fastest economic growth we’ve had since the end of World War 2.

We’ve never been in a lockdown at any point during the pandemic, and the more strict restrictions that were coined a “lockdown” ended 11 months ago (almost 12, as it was 5th March 2021).

7% inflation and I’ve not had a pay rise since 2019 due to covid.

 

[Rammy Blue]

7% inflation and I’ve not had a pay rise since 2019 due to covid.

Cost of living is fucking scary nowadays, and only going to get worse short term.

 

[SWP's back]

Cost of living is fucking scary nowadays, and only going to get worse short term.

A lot of it is down to global supply chain blockages due to covid. It will sort itself out fairly fast in 2022 thanks to omicron.

 

[vincent]

A lot of it is down to global supply chain blockages due to covid. It will sort itself out fairly fast in 2022 thanks to omicron.

I can assure you the global supply chain blockages will not improve in 2022. The China - US trade lane will get worse before it gets better and the ripple effects from that region impacts all trade globally. You are looking at 2023 at the earliest and even that is optimistic.

 

[SWP's back]

I can assure you the global supply chain blockages will not improve in 2022. The China - US trade lane will get worse before it gets better and the ripple effects from that region impacts all trade globally. You are looking at 2023 at the earliest and even that is optimistic.

Was literally on a call with Goldman yesterday and they disagree but the surety of your answer suggests maybe this is your field (it’s not mine)?

 

[vincent]

Was literally on a call with Goldman yesterday and they disagree but the surety of your answer suggests maybe this is your field (it’s not mine)?

Yep. There are many facets to this but it is mainly driven by the ridiculous shipping costs globally. There are also huge capacity constraints that are driving this. Things are not improving and if anything rates are increasing. A container pre Covid would cost apx $1000 from China to Europe. Rates are still +$15000 and getting space on vessels is still a huge challenge. Rates may soften as we get in to Q3 or Q4 but most likely it will be 2023 at the earliest.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Yep. There are many facets to this but it is mainly driven by the ridiculous shipping costs globally. There are also huge capacity constraints that are driving this. Things are not improving and if anything rates are increasing. A container pre Covid would cost apx $1000 from China to Europe. Rates are still +$15000 and getting space on vessels is still a huge challenge. Rates may soften as we get in to Q3 or Q4 but most likely it will be 2023 at the earliest.

It doesn’t help that air transport between SE Asia and anywhere else has fallen off a cliff - that’s a lot of lifting capacity gone.

 

[vincent]

It doesn’t help that air transport between SE Asia and anywhere else has fallen off a cliff - that’s a lot of lifting capacity gone.

True but everything is driven by China. Their Covid zero policy is still having a massive impact. Ports are still heavily congested in China and Hong Kong and this results in crazy freight costs. Pretty much all industries are suffering big time and the costs are then passed on to the consumer. Companies will re design their globalised supply chains after Covid. More manufacturing will move to Europe and the Americas.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Because it was Omicron so of course it’s doing the heavy lifting in the sentence. It’s the whole point of the fucking sentence. IT WAS OMICRON. IT WAS NOT DELTA. South Africa already had a month of data on how severe (or should we say mild) it was. SAGE ignored that and lobbied for a lockdown before Christmas.

There’s literally no point talking about ‘what if it was a more severe strain’ as it was and there was data around showing that. Did you not post on this thread in November and December?

I don’t think they ignored South Africa’s data out of flippancy mate, I’m just not sure you can use data that hasn’t got all end data required for getting results.

We’ve seen how long it takes for initial infections to start to move around the age groups and then finally get to the most vulnerable groups before they end up hospitalised and then see recoveries; that’s all longer than a month. So the only data they could use was Delta data and then tell us “if Omicron is 100%/50%/2.5% as bad as Delta xxx may happen”.

Im also not sure one country’s data gives a reliable data set neither. There are many factors that would make one country’s data unreliable when modelling. They could have a fitter, less obese, fewer lung conditions, healthier, younger average age, lower elderly percentage population. There are no averages to take from multiple data sets to temper an unreliable set of figures.

It also never helped that our media runs with SAGE’s heavier severity models and often don’t mention or only passingly mention the ‘2.5% as bad’ models.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Its incredible. A week it so ago this thread fucked off to page 2. I was delighted. I thought it was a sign of covid generally fucking off in life, which for most it has i think.

but no. One or two loons on here wont let that happen. Whilst covid can make them feel important and relevant theyll keep banging on about it .

weird
As
Fuck

Most of the discussion has been about science this week, rather than specifically about Covid itself.

Don’t forget as well, that we’re currently having around 10,000 deaths a day worldwide and the worst it’s ever been was only at around 14,000 deaths a day. So as a worldwide population we’re still in the thick of it.

It’s nice and quiet for us at the moment, but even in Germany (where my friend lives who I spoke to on the phone this week) they are under quite strict restrictions and you can’t even go to the shops or go on public transport if you haven’t had the vaccine.

 

[Betterdeedthan red]

Felt pretty crap since Monday.
Thought it was cos I banged my head on Sunday..

Did an lft test last night negative.
Feel totally normal today.
Just done another test.
Negative...

What do I do keep testing.
In hindsight I shouldn't have been in work all week.
I'm obviously off today

 

[ell]

A lot of it is down to global supply chain blockages due to covid. It will sort itself out fairly fast in 2022 thanks to omicron.

Whilst I hope you are correct, I work in shipping and sadly that's not what were hearing/expecting. We are all miserable pessimistic bastards though

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Felt pretty crap since Monday.
Thought it was cos I banged my head on Sunday..

Did an lft test last night negative.
Feel totally normal today.
Just done another test.
Negative...

What do I do keep testing.
In hindsight I shouldn't have been in work all week.
I'm obviously off today

Go for a PCR if you are worried

 

[Betterdeedthan red]

Go for a PCR if you are worried

To be honest I'm not worried really.
I've had a negative result today get another tomorrow and back normal tomorrow

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Most of the discussion has been about science this week, rather than specifically about Covid itself.

Don’t forget as well, that we’re currently having around 10,000 deaths a day worldwide and the worst it’s ever been was only at around 14,000 deaths a day. So as a worldwide population we’re still in the thick of it.

It’s nice and quiet for us at the moment, but even in Germany (where my friend lives who I spoke to on the phone this week) they are under quite strict restrictions and you can’t even go to the shops or go on public transport if you haven’t had the vaccine.

There's a definite sad weirdo contingent in this thread who insist on dragging this out as long as they can. They need another hobby. (and I don't mean Healdplace).

If you're vaccinated, covid is over.

 

[meltonblue]

I don’t think they ignored South Africa’s data out of flippancy mate, I’m just not sure you can use data that hasn’t got all end data required for getting results.

We’ve seen how long it takes for initial infections to start to move around the age groups and then finally get to the most vulnerable groups before they end up hospitalised and then see recoveries; that’s all longer than a month. So the only data they could use was Delta data and then tell us “if Omicron is 100%/50%/2.5% as bad as Delta xxx may happen”.

Im also not sure one country’s data gives a reliable data set neither. There are many factors that would make one country’s data unreliable when modelling. They could have a fitter, less obese, fewer lung conditions, healthier, younger average age, lower elderly percentage population. There are no averages to take from multiple data sets to temper an unreliable set of figures.

It also never helped that our media runs with SAGE’s heavier severity models and often don’t mention or only passingly mention the ‘2.5% as bad’ models.

Yep. The biggest issue in the models they created wasn’t really the severity of omicron, it was that they underestimated the behavioural change impact (mostly caused by the creation of the models in the first place), they did spot that fairly early on though and that’s one of the hardest things to model.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Most of the discussion has been about science this week, rather than specifically about Covid itself.

Don’t forget as well, that we’re currently having around 10,000 deaths a day worldwide and the worst it’s ever been was only at around 14,000 deaths a day. So as a worldwide population we’re still in the thick of it.

It’s nice and quiet for us at the moment, but even in Germany (where my friend lives who I spoke to on the phone this week) they are under quite strict restrictions and you can’t even go to the shops or go on public transport if you haven’t had the vaccine.

I wouldnt say 10000 deaths a day worldwide is ‘in the thick of it’ mate. Id say thats a minute fraction of the worlds population.
Always gonna have leaders being a bit power crazy (i.e NZ, that nutter in wales, the other nutter in scotland)

 

[grunge]

I wouldnt say 10000 deaths a day worldwide is ‘in the thick of it’ mate. Id say thats a minute fraction of the worlds population.
Always gonna have leaders being a bit power crazy (i.e NZ, that nutter in wales, the other nutter in scotland)

It will also be under counted in most parts of the world. India for example have 500k deaths in total marked as Covid yet have 5 million excess deaths.

So while we as a country are in a good place, its not going to be the same everywhere. the world is definatly over the hump of it though.