COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

It's a glorified cold for fuck's sake.

If you are fit and healthy,some of us are not

 

[SuperstarNeilC]

 

[Blue Hefner]

40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280

keep doing that every couple of days for a few months.

I accept that, but let’s say it gets to 640. Isn’t that the time to tell everybody to stay indoors for 8 weeks then it stops?

I accept and understand it will grow but to 80% of the population seems beyond belief

 

[SWP's back]

If you are fit and healthy,some of us are not

The thing is, it’s not a glorified cold.

I don’t know if that poster has ever had Flu, and I mean Flu, not a cold. I had it properly when I was 17 and it brought on pneumonia and a week in hospital.

Now Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% (a cold has zero), this Covid-19 is between 20-40x more lethal. Than Flu. and infinitely more lethal than a cold.

I’m all for not panicking, but let’s also be rational and try not taking the piss.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I watched the press conference today and I just don’t get it - we’ve less than 40 known cases in the UK. Those people are now in isolation and/or being treated. How do we go from that to potentially 80% of the population being infected?

It doesn’t seem credible or realistic. My conclusion is based on nothing as I’ve no scientific/disease knowledge whatsoever so it’s likely to me that has the problem but if someone could give an outline of how we go from 39 cases to millions in the space of a few months, that would be appreciated

Potential exponential growth.

This a fairly good overview of the related R0 measure in disease transmission.



This is an interesting deeper dive in to R0 for anyone interested.

https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf

Below is WHO’s most recent situation report.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0302-sitrep-42-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=edd4f123_2

This novel coronavirus is highly transmissible and currently has an estimated R0 of 2-4 (depending on whether you take the more conservative WHO estimate or more liberal estimates from a few other infectious disease research groups). This rate changes based on location, populace, interactions, precautions, timing, etc.

It’s also important to remember that the confirmed cases will always be far lower than the actually cases, especially given the very limited testing currently occurring.

 

[SWP's back]

I accept that, but let’s say it gets to 640. Isn’t that the time to tell everybody to stay indoors for 8 weeks then it stops?

I accept and understand it will grow but to 80% of the population seems beyond belief

The problem is the high R0 and the fact that it seems you’re likely to pass it on to people for a day or two before symptoms appear.

That and wankers thinking it’s nothing more than cold and ignoring the advice and thus creating a bigger problem.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The problem is the high R0 and the fact that it seems you’re likely to pass it on to people for a day or two before symptoms appear.

That and wankers thinking it’s nothing more than cold and ignoring the advice and thus creating a bigger problem.

You’re a ray of sunshine. ;-)

Couldn’t help myself — I post in support of your stance, of course.

 

[blueparrot]

The thing is, it’s not a glorified cold.

I don’t know if that poster has ever had Flu, and I mean Flu, not a cold. I had it properly when I was 17 and it brought on pneumonia and a week in hospital.

Now Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% (a cold has zero), this Covid-19 is between 20-40x more lethal. Than Flu and infinitely more lethal than a cold.

I’m all for not panicking, but let’s also be rational and try not taking the piss.

That's fair enough but it still gives a fatality rate of 2-4%, so for most healthy people it isn't the 'killer virus' as being driven by the newspaper headlines and a few posters here.

 

[kaz7]

The thing is, it’s not a glorified cold.

I don’t know if that poster has ever had Flu, and I mean Flu, not a cold. I had it properly when I was 17 and it brought on pneumonia and a week in hospital.

Now Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% (a cold has zero), this Covid-19 is between 20-40x more lethal. Than Flu and infinitely more lethal than a cold.

I’m all for not panicking, but let’s also be rational and try not taking the piss.

I have only had proper flu once that i can remember as it wasn't long ago,i ended up with a chest infection and antibiotics,it was awful,i can't afford a repeat of that now,probably shouldn't of hugged everybody this last 2 days but i'm a hugger,have a really sore throat today,hopefully it's nothing,i am back in my bubble so isolating would be fine

 

[SebastianBlue]

I have only had proper flu once that i can remember as it wasn't long ago,i ended up with a chest infection and antibiotics,it was awful,i can't afford a repeat of that now,probably shouldn't of hugged everybody this last 2 days but i'm a hugger,have a really sore throat today,hopefully it's nothing,i am back in my bubble so isolating would be fine

Index patient Kaz. ;-)