COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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domalino said:
If we are in this lockdown/isolation for about a month then it should almost die out - everyone with the virus will have either recovered or..not.

And then in theory if you have some of the restrictions still in place like no school, and people really adhere to the principles of staying at home if anyone gets sick in their household, you can get on top of and smother any outbreaks as they occur.

That will eventually fail, and we will probably be back in lockdown, but it might give us a month of semi-normality that keeps everyone sane.

The ICL model had a system where you lifted controls or put them back in place based on the number of new intensive care cases per week across the country. Once it gets to a certain point, you lock down again and then ride out the wave that comes post-lockdown.

Eventually through doing that we'll treat a lot of people in good (ie not overflowing) hospital conditions and kill time before effective treatments or vaccines.
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Agree with the principle and the logic.

However, how long you need a lockdown for, depends heavily on how tight the lockdown is, and how much "leakage" you get. Unfortunately the scenes in the early stages - still continuing to an extent - of people crammed into tube trains, packed together at supermarket checkouts and working on building sites etc in close proximity, incur a lot of leakage.

For us to come out of lockdown, the residual rate of infection needs to be so low that we can effectively track and isolate all new cases and test and isolate those they've been in contact with. And since we are not near the peak yet, and even further from it plateauing let alone falling, I think we are stuck with this for way more than 1 month. My guess would be 3 months, maybe more.
 
karen7 said:
A GP practice has apologised after sending a letter to patients with serious illnesses to complete a "do not resuscitate" form in case their conditions deteriorated due to coronavirus.

In the note, delivered to people with life-limiting illnesses, such as incurable cancer and motor neurone disease, Llynfi Surgery in Maesteg, South Wales, also said that completing the DNACPR (do not attempt CPR) form had "several benefits"

It claimed doctors and family and friends would know not to call 999 if a loved one's condition worsened, and therefore not use up "scarce ambulance resources", and risk transmitting COVID-19 to others

It said people with life-limiting illnesses were at much higher risk of the virus, and were "unlikely to be offered hospital admission", and "certainly will not be offered a ventilator bed".

It ended by saying: "We will not abandon you, but we need to be frank about what the next few months holds for us."

On Wednesday, Cwm Taf University Health Board said the letter was not a health board communication and that the surgery was apologising to patients for causing "distress", saying that was not their intent.

A spokesman for Cwm Taf said: "A letter was recently sent out from Llynfi Surgery to a small number of patients.

"Staff at the surgery are speaking to those patients who received the letter to apologise directly and answer any concerns they may have

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-do-not-resuscitate-form-to-patients-11966979

Wow
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It sounds a bit crass but many of those with incurable cancer or motor neurone disease might have chosen euthanasia if offered.

We've already heard plenty of elderly people who are relatively healthy saying they'd rather they saved someone younger and those with Covid 19 refusing a ventilator.
 
bluethrunthru said:
I am starting to think that they are too worried about existing contracts. They are obliged to use certain suppliers for anything from ventilators to testing labs and even though the demand is overwhelming those suppliers those at the top are concerned that breaking contracts could jeopardise existing and future commitments
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I can't see it.

The firm that makes ventilators for the NHS were complaining that they'd not been asked to make more (let alone "ramp up" production) so are now making them for other countries.
 
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No "I think" answers please but in a ventilator what happens to the virus in the air breathed out?
 
I can't find the link but read before it would be as you'd expect, and the doc writing it showed a pic of what they'd ideally wear, essentially a hazmat getup. I'm sure someone with more knowledge will be able to expand.
 
As if the Covid and lock down weren't enough, it appears a couple of geniuses ski'd this morning on Mt Taylor, a notorious avalanche hazard ( I've known three people who were killed on the Mt over tbe hears) we had a big wet heavy snowfall last night....anyhoo, long story short, they set off an avalanche and one is missing, now got Search and Rescue tied up looking for his body, fucking unbelievable
 
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