COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Mayor West]

There is clearly no benefit in trying to use the '24 hour' death toll as any sort of indication of how things are going as the figures are a total mess. Today's only include 140 from the previous 24 hour period whilst the majority are from April 1st to 7th but also there are others from March.

No. of new cases is a much better indicator of where we are at but that data isn't as readily available it seems

 

[kaz7]

Yes. This is the 3rd day on the bounce that we're below the logrithmic increase trend line. This probably means the peak really will be on Sunday or Monday.
If so, it's highly likely that we will be behind Spain and Italy in mortality statics per head of population. (France and Begium too).

I am reluctant to believe the peak is this weekend,even if it is i think there will be another rise due to this weekend coming later

 

[domalino]

The daily numbers are being used to indicate progress,when the peak will be etc,with the recording of deaths how they are it is all they have got to use death rate wise

It's only us and the media using the deaths to measure the pandemic. The government will be going on hospital and ICU admissions more.

 

[kaz7]

It's only us and the media using the deaths to measure the pandemic. The government will be going on hospital and ICU admissions more.

Seperate graphs altogether,all data counts

 

[blueparrot]

Yeah but I'm saying yesterdays woul include catch ups and also the day before that as well. It's a pipeline process so what happens in the pipeline today probably happened yesterday too.
If it isn't then the numbers will crash next week.
I was working in this field as part my day job from 2003-2006. What matters is that the data is recorded against the correct point in time not when it was reported.

Yes agree ,and it’s why I keep repeating the mantra the reliable figures for the trends are new cases and critical care numbers the death figures will follow eventually but at this stage aren’t reliable day to day indicator or even a reliable comparison with other countries.

 

[blueparrot]

Seperate graphs altogether,all data counts

But far more indicative.

 

[BlueAnorak]

There is clearly no benefit in trying to use the '24 hour' death toll as any sort of indication of how things are going as the figures are a total mess. Today's only include 140 from the previous 24 hour period whilst the majority are from April 1st to 7th but also there are others from March.

When we finally get the Retrospectoscope out to analyse ONS data, each case will have the correct date/time against it for each event (test, hospital assessment, hospitalization, death/hospital release). All we are seeing is a snap shot of how much data was processed in a day.

 

[BlueAnorak]

its been a free for all for the boy racers,i think they have powers under section ??? to compound them

Yeah I've seen pumped up vehicles being taken away on transporters so vehicle impounding is taking place.

 

[Manc in London]

They are saying 140 were yesterdays

But then some of those who died yesterday, will have their death reported tomorrow or the day after. As @BlueAnorak stated, there are issues with reporting the data in a timely fashion. I have given up using daily reported deaths as a good indicator for understanding the 'curve'.

Anyone know if positive test data is up to date?

 

[kaz7]

Wales has already admitted it will extend the lockdown, First Minister Mark Drakeford saying on Wednesday: "We will not throw away the gains we have made and the lives we can save by abandoning our efforts just as they begin to bear fruit."

Ms Sturgeon has hinted heavily the same will happen in Scotland, telling Sky News on Thursday she agreed with the move and adding:"I don't think there is any possibility, any likelihood of these lockdown measures being lifted immediately or even imminently.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-patient-deaths-rise-by-765-taking-total-to-7-248-11971022

this makes sense to me,we have only just started along this road,i want to see a couple more weeks of stable and then reduction first