COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Think BBC NW are reading this column (only joking!)

They just did a summary on ups and downs in NW and how Merseyside is improving and GM going the other way and I was smiling as it almost exactly matched what I have been posting over the past few days in my evening reports.

Reassuring to be ahead of the news.
 
England hospital deaths no better news

192 deaths - most yet in second wave. With 73 from the North West 43 from the Midlands and 31 Yorkshire
 
hilts said:
Is there more of an issue than dying?
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It's a big issue indeed, however when we look at countries that didn't implement full lockdowns (South Korea, Sweden), I think the difference in casualties compared to lockdown countries isn't significant. I could be wrong but it seems lockdowns aren't as effective at preventing deaths by Covid than what our governments expected.
 
Healdplace said:
Think BBC NW are reading this column (only joking!)

They just did a summary on ups and downs in NW and how Merseyside is improving and GM going the other way and I was smiling as it almost exactly matched what I have been posting over the past few days in my evening reports.

Reassuring to be ahead of the news.
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They might be ;-) It's not beyond the realms of possibility ;-)
 
Wales 3 wks ago v 2 wks ago v last wk v today

Deaths 1 v 10 v 7 v 21 today - no good news there

Cases 658 v 727 v 1134 v 1375 today.

Not sure that represents as good a news as Scotland but the lockdown has lasted longer in Scotland so by next week it will be a mire obvious stalling of the rise.
 
Healdplace said:
If as Imperial say today 100,000 a day in England alone are catching Covid based on their data and we are only still picking up a quarter or so as so many are asymptomatic and that number is rising will there be a tipping point where so many in the UK have had it in this second wave that it naturally begins to subside?

If this goes on we are talking 5 million a month soon. That is a big percentage of the population by Christmas.

Any statistician out there modelling these numbers as to if letting it rip by accident or design is helping or hindering so long as we keep serious illness/deaths within a level that the health service can manage?

The uncertainty over whether you can catch it twice in the same wave must complicate things but surely there has to come a point where so many have had it numbers naturally drop?
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Of course, that is what herd immunity is all about. But there's 67m people in the country and IIRC they were talking about something like 45m infected in order for herd immunity to see the virus naturally die out. (And that assumed that once infected, you could not be reinfected, which it seems is not true).

We're nowhere near that infection rate and even at 5m new infections per month, it could be 6, 7, 8 months before we reach that point.
 
mackenzie said:
They might be ;-) It's not beyond the realms of possibility ;-)
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I doubt it, as anyone can read the data which is all I do. Just glad they are doing it and reassured they agree with my interpretation.

Though I have worked for the BBC in the past for real as it happens.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Of course, that is what herd immunity is all about. But there's 67m people in the country and IIRC they were talking about something like 45m infected in order for herd immunity to see the virus naturally die out. (And that assumed that once infected, you could not be reinfected, which it seems is not true).

We're nowhere near that infection rate and even at 5m new infections per month, it could be 6, 7, 8 months before we reach that point.
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I do appreciate that.

Although those numbers are England only (so its a few million less). And there will be some residual immunity from the past 7 months worth of people who caught it presumably too?

Just musing. I don't actually know.
 
Why if there is no statistical evidence to say that sending Scottish care home residents home with Covid are we all in lock down. The statistics would appear to the same for both?
www.bbc.co.uk

FM comments on care home outbreak report

Nicola Sturgeon says there is "no statistical evidence" hospital discharges led to care home outbreaks.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
Healdplace said:
I doubt it, as anyone can read the data which is all I do. Just glad they are doing it and reassured they agree with my interpretation.

Though I have worked for the BBC in the past for real as it happens.
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I know ;-)
Had you down as Susie Mathis at one point lol.
 
Healdplace said:
I do appreciate that.

Although those numbers are England only (so its a few million less). And there will be some residual immunity from the past 7 months worth of people who caught it presumably too?

Just musing. I don't actually know.
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Immunity is further away than ever , antibodies drop off really quickly

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Antibodies fall rapidly after COVID infection, dashing hopes of herd immunity - study

Researchers find that the number of people with antibodies in their study fell by 26% since lockdown measures were relaxed.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
HorlocksWalk said:
Why if there is no statistical evidence to say that sending Scottish care home residents home with Covid are we all in lock down. The statistics would appear to the same for both?
www.bbc.co.uk

FM comments on care home outbreak report

Nicola Sturgeon says there is "no statistical evidence" hospital discharges led to care home outbreaks.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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she is talking bollocks , covering her arse
 
Healdplace said:
The fact that they have stabilised the cases in Scotland is good news and shows it can be done if you act quickly and decisively as they did. Remains to be seen if England has done either yet. I am not convinced we have. And waiting is like doubling the recovery time needed I am afraid may prove true.

Will stabilising cases also just stabilise the level of deaths or will they start to fall Guess Scotland will tell us as their deaths (as expected) are rising now and lagging behind the plateau of cases as they would do by a week or two.

But will we see 40 or so cases daily from now on throughout the Winter there?

Looks as if that is the fear given the new higher tiers being set out in the Scottish parliament today,

The Scottish parliament is at least pro active. The UK seems more reactive. I just fear that is a poor way to manage a pandemic where you need to try to think ahead of the ball not constantly chasing after it.
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Your last paragraph nails the issues.
 
kaz7 said:
she is talking bollocks , covering her arse
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So she would like you to believe
There is evidence to say sending people with the virus to a care home would cause an outbreak
And
You all need to stay at home and not visit other peoples homes, pubs and football games to stop the virus spreading
Strange times
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
It will get worse. A lockdown will have to happen at some point. Not long ago it was single figure deaths, now it's mid 300s. remember that data analyst that was getting so many likes on here saying all the scientists were wrong? what by Christmas with nothing done? 600 a day? 700? It will not go away. It will spread down south and they will 100% have a lockdown then.

Instead we have posts on here saying we should follow the 25% minority of sage advice. You offer no solutions. We are walking into the same mistakes we made 8 months ago.

100s and 100s of people, real people with families are dying everyday. It will get worse while we pontificate. We will, just like France and Germany have to have another lockdown at some point. Have it now. Save lives and maybe have some semblance of a Christmas.
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There is as much of a lockdown in Tier 3 as a national lockdown and it isn't working. So why make places that don't need to be in lockdown suffer as well. There are of course additional hidden tiers.
Tier 4 shuts all non essential shops and probably older years at school and tier 5 that shuts down schools.
 
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England hospital deaths in detail:

28 Oct adds 34 = 34 after 1 day. This is the highest day 1 total since 28 May

27 Oct adds 84 = 111 after 2 days. This is the highest day 2 total since 13 May.

26 Oct adds 29 - 142 after 3 days. This is the highest day 3 total since 12 May.

25 Oct adds 16 = 147 after 4 days. This is the highest day 4 total since the 12 May and the highest total even after months of add on deaths since 16 May.

24 Oct adds 13 = 123 after 5 days.



Other add ons 23 Oct adds 9 = 130, 22 Oct adds 1 = 140, 21 Oct adds 1 = 137, 19 Oct adds 2 = 108, 18 Oct adds 1 = 86 (This is the last date since when under 100 people have died on that date in England hospitals).

12 Oct adds 1 = 71.

There was also another very old death added from 27 March.
 
Just having a glance at some of the figures across Europe. Christ, I know it’s bleak here but Belgium have reported over 21,000 new cases today and 132 deaths. That’s in a country with a population that is less than a fifth of the UK.
 
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