COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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kaz7 said:
Immunity is further away than ever , antibodies drop off really quickly

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Antibodies fall rapidly after COVID infection, dashing hopes of herd immunity - study

Researchers find that the number of people with antibodies in their study fell by 26% since lockdown measures were relaxed.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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Well its clearly not further away than ever is it? Even if antibodies do fall, we are slowly going towards herd immunity while people are getting infected. Its not further away!

Also you forgot the other positive item from that research, IE if you do catch it again you are not as likely to be as ill the second time round.
 
mackenzie said:
And yet austerity measures, which we will have for years to come no doubt, usually bring with it 100,000 deaths caused directly by those same measures. Public services, health and benefit cuts. The two are not separate, they are closely interlinked.
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Of course they are but the priority now is stopping the country collapsing because the nhs collapses , the immediate problem is stopping it going into the winter, imo
 
kaz7 said:
if it is impossible to remote learn then let them go , we told everyone to go back then harding says nobody could see numbers jumping up as they did ! The ones that can come home test them and let the negatives go home and remote learn

A lockdown last week could have meant kids only missing a week or two of school , i cant say how many short lockdowns will be needed but we have missed the first chance to slow it down, it is catchup all the way now , in that respect we have not learnt that we have to get ahead and not lag behind learn

We had no plan to come out of lockdown, it was confused and mixed messages , the one metre plus and not two metres springs to mind , then backing cummings and then saying he acted res ponsable and with integrity so everyone said if we can break the rules then we can

Of course it is not easy , it is a bit stupid to keep saying that to me

Plenty of us wanted to use our time advantage and lock down sooner and stop mass gatherings etc, no hindsight needed , it was obvious what we were doing wrong , now as then we have lost control and are tinkering again
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Same as most of Europe, they all seemed to have messed up.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Imperial Study - So it cant be trusted. 2.5 times higher than the Zoe and ONS studies.
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Zoe study is estimating something different, so the numbers cannot be compared.
The Zoe study only looks at symptomatic cases so if 60% are asymptomatic the numbers are comparable.
Can't remember last time ONS was updated.
 
Cityfan said:
Zoe study is estimating something different, so the numbers cannot be compared.
The Zoe study only looks at symptomatic cases so if 60% are asymptomatic the numbers are comparable.
Can't remember last time ONS was updated.
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Last I read its about 25% asymptomatic.
 
kaz7 said:
Of course they are but the priority now is stopping the country collapsing because the nhs collapses , the immediate problem is stopping it going into the winter, imo
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And I agree, wholeheartedly. Yet the issue remains that we cannot let the economy suffer even more because it will be the likes of you and I that will be subject to the whims of austerity and government cuts on public services for years. Decades even.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Well its clearly not further away than ever is it? Even if antibodies do fall, we are slowly going towards herd immunity while people are getting infected. Its not further away!

Also you forgot the other positive item from that research, IE if you do catch it again you are not as likely to be as ill the second time round.
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I didnt forget anything , if you have no immunity you can catch it again meaning we might never get herd immunity , that notion is dismissed by everyone , it is not achievable without a massive loss of life , a lot is still unknown

It is further away because at the start everyone assumed immunity for years , now it seems immunity lasts a really short time so you can get it again
 
mackenzie said:
And I agree, wholeheartedly. Yet the issue remains that we cannot let the economy suffer even more because it will be the likes of you and I that will be subject to the whims of austerity and government cuts on public services for years. Decades even.
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What do we do then , starting today ?
 
That React study which talked about declining immunity has gained way too much traction imo

Antibody levels fall away naturally anyway, and the immune system retains a memory of past infection through memory B cells. Immunity can not just be measured in terms of antibodies either. Studies have shown that people who had SARS almost 20 years ago still have very strong T cell reactions to it but we don't know whether these T cell responses are sufficient on their own to confer immunity.

There have been some isolated cases of people getting reinfected but so far these remain very few and far between.

You could also argue from the React survey that such studies understate infection because those who were antibody positive 3 months ago in the first wave no longer have the levels of antibodies required to trigger a positive result

This is not an argument in favour of herd immunity but I don't think people should use surveys like this to dismiss the affect of immunity in ending this infection. If you look at the regions in which this is spreading in wave 2 you can predict a lot of it based on wave 1. See the UK.

Without acquired immunity vaccines are useless, or at the very least will require repeated booster jabs. I am pretty sure remember listening to Prof Sarah Gilbert (Oxford vaccine) say that they got their headstart from work on the previous coronaviruses and their results showed that their experimental SARS vaccine was still effective many years later. I'm not certain about this point because that was many months ago and I'm not about to check that again!
 
kaz7 said:
What do we do then , starting today ?
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As much as it pains me to say, we need to adhere to to the regional lockdowns. Not a national one, although I think we are heading for one because the Government don't have an effing clue what to do now and will opt for it eventually.
The problem is with the "sticking to the rules locally" so I'd get those not sticking to it fined (heavily). Sod all this Boris approach, about not wanting to come down "heavy." It is a pandemic....do something about those not sticking to the rules!!!

kaz7 said:
What do we do then , starting today ?
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kevin horlocks wand said:
this Is what I don’t understand there is no analysis or stats on growth in those areas who have been locked down and those that haven’t .

if it was shown to work then people would support it .

we have been locked down in Manchester for months and cases are going up. Yet equally those areas who have had relaxed restrictions have also been going up.

equally countries in Europe and Far East who adopt harsh lockdowns are no more successful than those that have a more guidance based approach .

i don’t know the answer it’s just all bloody odd.
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There is no publicly available stats on how and why the virus is spreading. Just pronouncements from SAGE on their theories with no stats to back them up.
They also state that 80% of cases occur as a result of superspread events yet we have no rules on limiting the number of places a person can visit in a day.
Without all of the above being sorted out and made public we're stuffed as people can't be pointed in the direction of reasons why they have to do something.
 
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mosssideblue said:
How does that work? say someone previously recovered is not exposed to Covid again?
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They won't catch it. But out of 45 million confirmed cases so far globally, the odds are more than 4 will have been exposed to it post recovery, which are the known number of cases of reinfection.
 
True_Blue69 said:
They won't catch it. But out of 45 million confirmed cases so far globally, the odds are more than 4 will have been exposed to it post recovery, which are the known number of cases of reinfection.
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Yeah at the moment a handful of reinfections is nothing to worry about, there's anomalies in everything.

1 in x million children are born Siamese etc.

Of course should the virus mutate or human immune systems stop recognising it that could change. Due to the timespan from Covid beginning we have no idea if this herd stuff has any legs, I'd not be looking at that as any solution at this stage.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
why do people keep going on about Sweden ffs, as if it's some utopian society free of Covid where everyone can mingle and it's all fine.
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Because.... they never had a national shut down, they never closed all their pubs, restaurants, bars and businesses. They never closed all their schools and education facilities.

They never insisted on everyone wearing masks and they still don't.

They currently have all their public services and transports running, over 90-95% of commuters do not wear masks.

They DID have a limit on outside gatherings... No more than 50, yes 50 people are allowed to gather. They do ask people to observe social distancing, and wherever possible people do.

Like it or not, argue population densities or whatever you like, their economy is in much better shape than ours.

Go to Sweden tonight and you will find all the pubs open and people out socialising.

It's debateable as to whether the Swedish population are more or less at risk than the UK, but what is true is they have had less deaths per 100,000 of the population and, last time I checked, their 14 day reinfection count was miles below us.

Which model would I choose to follow, Swedish for me, you are quite entitled to disagree.
 
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