COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Manufacturing issues mean there is only 50% of the expected supply available would guess they will have to pro rata.


That 50% only refers to the anticipated delivery in 2020, so a cut from 100 million to 50 million. At the same time, it is increasing production so should have more available in early 2021.
 
Quite.
There are about 25 million of 50 or over, plus the vulnerable who are younger.

By the time they try something more nuanced by geography, they should have reached 80-90% of those in the main target area. At that point, as long as there aren't shortages in any region, they should just get on with it.

I highly doubt they'll want to keep London in Tier 4 lockdown until march (the target for vaccinating the over 50s).
 
Just had another letter telling me to shield as my area is now tier 4. I live in Rochdale which is currently tier 3.
Just wandering if it has been sent by mistake, or is tier 4 coming during xmas when the poster of said email will be on holiday. Leaving the mainstream media to deliver the bad news.
 
It won't happen anyway, currently the largest growth in many areas is amongst kids, and its not approved for them anyway, and the people needing protection most are the over 70's and most vulnerable (as well as health workers), so that will continue to be the target.
I think it would be unwise not to address the cluster with vaccines. Even with Tier 4 restrictions it will spread geographically. of course it will do anyway but we want to minimise the 'seeds'. And needless to say vaccination will take months and this is doubling in the SE & London every 6 days. Let's see how the variables play out for there are many unknowns.
 
Looking at the curve will be a political decision on when to reduce measures a lot of the risk is mitigated very early in programme.
Courtesy of @twosips

View attachment 7019

Great visualisation that, and cause for optimism.

A note of caution: whilst the median age of death is 82, the median age of hospitalisation is much lower, 62.

There's a danger that we relax too soon according to the logic of that graph and end up with an out of control epidemic amongst u70s which still has the capability to knock out NHS capability and cause lasting harm to millions.
 
I highly doubt they'll want to keep London in Tier 4 lockdown until march (the target for vaccinating the over 50s).
Vaccinating people who don't need it wouldn't help the situation either.

The vaccine doesn't stop the spread, it prevents serious illness and death amongst the old/vulnerable, which is why it's been targetted at those it has first.
 
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