COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

maybe because they wernt caused by covid?

We dont know , i think the numbers were scaring the gov and they wanted them to be less , who knows


In other news

How was this allowed to happen ?

The Chilean army announced that 36 people linked with the General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme base on the planet's southern pole had tested positive for COVID-19.

The base is in the far western reaches of Antarctica, close to the southern tip of South America.

 

[blueparrot]

Spending like a drunken sailor at the start of the pandemic has also now come back to bite this government on the arse.

There is literally no cash wiggle room to throw at the ramifications of a much-needed further lockdown.

They have been hedging bets and dithering as a result, knowing deep down what they have needed to do since November.

We can't afford another lockdown, but we can't afford not to, otherwise we will have people dying hand over fist in the coming weeks, it's a simple as that.

The sobering reality is that the economy is already tanked, certainly in terms of a rapid recovery, job prospects and expecting our kids and their kids to be paying it back until the pips squeak?

The amount of money printed in the last year would probably have been enough to have handed every household that needed it £20k to keep them going throughout this traumatic period, thus not putting people in conflicted situations about working in harms way and trying to sustain feeding their families and paying bills.

I have read a few economists this week suggesting we will not be able to move forward again unless we press the reset button on finances and do something akin to debt forgiveness of the Roman Empire.

Maybe Rome is already burning?

Something I said a few years ago, as a joke, when talking about all the countries in the world with national debts they couldn’t ever hope to repay, debts that were keeping whole continents in poverty. That like a game of monopoly out of control we should put all the money back int he box share it out and start again properly.
Maybe what was said in jest isn’t so funny now.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester today actually FELL by 40 to 773. Most places had good days and the worst offenders today were surprisingly Stockport and Salford. Both up. Stockport to its highest number in nearly a month.

But at 32.8% of the North West total this is the lowest GM has been for months.

Liverpool had a particularly bad day - though it has been rising for a while now and has been over 100 for the first time in weeks for a few days. Today it had both more cases than Manchester and rose by a higher pop score. And at 173 was at its highest number for 6 or 7 weeks.

Liverpool get fans on Sunday, City don't on Saturday. Another mad thing in this pandemic full of maddities,

 

[@BluePhil8]

Because they use data that's a week old at best.

Today's data up to Dec 17th.View attachment 7029
2 Weeks ago
View attachment 7030

So, for someone like me who hasn’t been keeping up with this, the Government’s entire strategy appears to be reactive, not proactive?

 

[Ban-jani]

Everyone knows a national lockdown is happening January.

26th of December I reckon.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Why would anyone want sports cancelling when they have been done so safely with barely any issues. Supermarkets should be shut before they look at professional sports and revert to delivery only.

Can't agree mate. Schools are the biggest spreaders, that's where the dichotomy begins and ends.

It's being brought home every day.

My wife's class has now tested 11 positives and five staff since she tested positive herself last Friday.

None of those 5-11 year-old's showed any symptoms and only got tested after my wife rang it in.

My lad is at secondary school and they had over 70 self-isolating in his year alone last week.

 

[kaz7]

Why would anyone want sports cancelling when they have been done so safely with barely any issues. Supermarkets should be shut before they look at professional sports and revert to delivery only.

You want people to starve ? Try and get a home delivery, sport is just a game , it doesnt matter

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Everyone knows a national lockdown is happening January.

Before I'd say.The silence around New Years Eve celebrations has been deafening.

 

[cleavers]

So, for someone like me who hasn’t been keeping up with this, the Government’s entire strategy appears to be reactive, not proactive?

Correct, though I'm not sure you could be completely proactive with an explosion like that, however @Healdplace posts data here, that is up to date, why the scientists aren't following that and advising the government accordingly, I've no idea.

 

[ganganvince]

26th of December I reckon.

Agree wonder if they will use the supposed empty roads to catch over nighters.

 

[mackenzie]

Before I'd say.The silence around New Years Eve celebrations has been deafening.

Yeah. I expect it to be announced around the 28th.

 

[sniff]

You want people to starve ? Try and get a home delivery, sport is just a game , it doesnt matter

I get that argument, but top flight sport has been relatively untouched by this. I see no point in stopping something that is adding very little to the overall spread.

Id hate to close school's because of the social issues that creates, the kids wont all be at home isolating anyway, as we saw in the first lock down. There are no easy option's, made worse with the tin foil hat, conspiracy simpletons and people who will bemoan any government decision. Its the nations attitude as a whole that helps this continue to spread. People still have to survive and after all these months i have broken the rules, because ,my head was disappearing up my arse. From talking to family and friends, its more common than you think. So for me the point of sporting events going ahead ? who gives a shit. People need to find a way of keeping sane, if that helps im all for it.

 

[twosips]

James Annan is a modeller who's been very critical of some of the work published. He's got an excellent model using Baysian inference which is the most convincing simple mathematical description of the progress of the epidemic I've seen anywhere. It has been published too.

His take:

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance of suppression in the next month or two

There' some fairly dense stuff in his blog post if you want to see more of the details.

The new variant

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance of suppre...

julesandjames.blogspot.com

I guess I'm trying to convey the sense of consensus there seems in the scientific community that what we do know, uncertainties notwithstanding, justifies urgent and decisive action because: this variant has clear potential to outrun our vaccination programme.

Stay home blues.

All this is incredibly crushing. Was feeling pretty good as recently as a week ago!

 

[cleavers]

In other news

How was this allowed to happen ?

The Chilean army announced that 36 people linked with the General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme base on the planet's southern pole had tested positive for COVID-19.

The base is in the far western reaches of Antarctica, close to the southern tip of South America.

I assume the new staff were tested negative before departure but hadn't isolated, and therefore maybe one or two had it, but tested negative. Once in, there's no stopping it, especially if you think the right precautions have been already taken, so you are inclined to live normally. It got into the Falklands this way early on in the pandemic, when we were still getting an understanding.

Since then UK policy for this is quite extensive, I've colleagues who have been working abroad with the military, newly posted personnel go into strict quarantine for 2 weeks at a military base, then they are tested, if negative then they then remain in a bubble to be transferred to their new location, where they stay in a bubble, with testing, on completion of their posting (usually a couple of months), they remain in the bubble until arrival back in the UK, where they then isolate for 10 days at home before returning to their normal job.

 

[ganganvince]

Well that's me fucked

 

[artfuldodger]

Can't agree mate. Schools are the biggest spreaders, that's where the dichotomy begins and ends.

It's being brought home every day.

My wife's class has now tested 11 positives and five staff since she tested positive herself last Friday.

None of those 5-11 year-old's showed any symptoms and only got tested after my wife rang it in.

My lad is at secondary school and they had over 70 self-isolating in his year alone last week.

People forget when they say they want a full lockdown like in March, that schools and Unis were all shut.

 

[Healdplace]

So, for someone like me who hasn’t been keeping up with this, the Government’s entire strategy appears to be reactive, not proactive?

As an example in a press conference about the tiers a week or two ago they showed data that was days old saying that the NW had more people in hospital than London. When that was no longer true as the up to date data showed but they did not mention. And has not been true ever since. Nearly every measure is based on at least 5 or 6 day old data.

On here we track the data in real time and it is not genius just having up to date data that means we can sometimes speak about things on here happening days before the media pick up on it based on briefings from a government that has just caught up with it.

There are valid reasons they use older data. It is slightly more accurate as it reallocates to the exact day. But when you are tracking trends you need to look at the ones up to date as a pandemic can move a lot in 5 days and five days in a pandemic can mean many deaths if you wait to be 'sure or to the exact decimal point'.

If you look at the weekly Pop scores showing if places are going up or down and by how much day to day these are for yesterday. The official ones the media get are 5 days old. The cases are the same in total so there are only ever very small variations doing it as I do on here and you can track across those five days how everywhere is going instead of waiting 5 days by which point an important change may already be obvious from the day to day data.

For instance Stockport rising today to its highest score in weeks might be a blip and it will fall tomorrow. But it has risen for several days. The reallocated data may smooth this out a bit or escalate it but we can see if it is a real trend earlier by watching it day to day than waiting whereas the raw data driving decisions for Stockport is from last week.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

All this is incredibly crushing. Was feeling pretty good as recently as a week ago!

Shit isn't it?

The thing is, we can still sort this. We have a vaccine, and probably two. If we react quickly and decisively we can still get through the worst in not too many weeks time.

We just need to learn from our mistakes

 

[kaz7]

I get that argument, but top flight sport has been relatively untouched by this. I see no point in stopping something that is adding very little to the overall spread.

Id hate to close school's because of the social issues that creates, the kids wont all be at home isolating anyway, as we saw in the first lock down. There are no easy option's, made worse with the tin foil hat, conspiracy simpletons and people who will bemoan any government decision. Its the nations attitude as a whole that helps this continue to spread. People still have to survive and after all these months i have broken the rules, because ,my head was disappearing up my arse. From talking to family and friends, its more common than you think. So for me the point of sporting events going ahead ? who gives a shit. People need to find a way of keeping sane, if that helps im all for it.

I understand your point of view , it was the closing supermarkets but keep sport going that is non sensical

 

[mosssideblue]

Should keep our mouths shut in future

why on earth would we want to keep something like this quiet?