COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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And finally England hospital data - given it is Tuesday - is a new record low. Just 5 deaths.

Moreover only 3 of them were in August. One is as old as 18 March!

However, all 3 of those August deaths were from the North West (as you recall they rarey add cases over the weekend here but tend to catch up on Tuesday).

Last week there were 6 England hospital deaths - 4 from the NW.
 
kaz7 said:
we don't know who made up the numbers gettin dropped,until we get the data they have for changing it I will doubt their motives,they could tell us how many of those died in accidents for instance,at the bare minimum
I am surprised anyone would just accept them doing it when we know how they spun test numbers etc
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I take more notice of the ONS 57K mortalities when considering the total figures.
 
Cityfan said:
The reason why I said it was highly unlikely is because antibody dependent enhancement appears rare. It is probably of clinical importance in Dengue fever.
The vaccinologists have not reported it in the animal models of the vaccines they are developing , the phase 3 trials which should take nothing like 10 years should give further reassurance.
In the meantime if it was likely to be a practical problem with covid convalescent plasma would make the condition worse when it appears to make it better.
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I think that's a fair analysis.
ADE is exactly why vaccines have to go through proper testing, and the scientists will know more about what they're doing now. it could still happen, but they will definitely be looking for signs of it.
 
The data is even more interesting when you look at the English hospital deaths by date. Leaving aside the two outliers - the one from March takes that total from 292 to 293 for that day btw. But for 27 July (the other old death added today) it rises from 3 to just 4 even three weeks later. Or 8 to 9 if you use my data.

This discrepancy is caused by the retro removal of deaths under the new definition. I will create a new table of these for reference but as there were 8 (now 9) English hospital deaths for 27 July under the old measure and that is now under half that number under the new measure there will be a big fall in other totals over past weeks too.

This shows the impact on the numbers we are seeing now versus last week even regardless of your view on the new measures.
 
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Healdplace said:
And finally England hospital data - given it is Tuesday - is a new record low. Just 5 deaths.

Moreover only 3 of them were in August. One is as old as 18 March!

However, all 3 of those August deaths were from the North West (as you recall they rarey add cases over the weekend here but tend to catch up on Tuesday).

Last week there were 6 England hospital deaths - 4 from the NW.
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Apologies for this as I'm sure this question has been asked and answered dozens of times before on here but what is going on with that death from March? I can understand it taking a few days or even weeks to confirm deaths and causes etc but that's from 5 months ago? That was pre-lockdown!
 
Incidentally with these changes the worst day for deaths has altered too for the UK - It used to be around 8/9 April when around 1200 deaths had occurred in UK hospitals before some were removed last week.

But the care home deaths lagged somewhat to change the picture.

So here are the worst death tallies per nation as of now.


Northern Ireland 30 - on 22 April.

Scotland 84 - on 15 April

Wales 110 - on 24 April

England 1116 on 21 April

That is the worst day for the UK too when 1224 died in the UK.
 
Healdplace said:
The International Society of Infectious Diseases - whoever they are - is suggesting the virus has mutated recently (especially in Europe) and is now more infectious than it was but less deadly.

No idea how credible this is. But it would fit what we are seeing.

As does the WHO statement today that globally under 50s are now driving up the case numbers pretty much everywere as these are as we have long known less likely to get very sick or die than those older.

Also that, whilst still infectious, a high percentage of them are asymptomatic as they spread it.
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I think this needs to be taken with a lot of caution.
The statements made by the ISID president elect (and the papers on D614G mutation) say "may be" - it is not definitive at the moment.

As far as I can tell, the mutated form has been recorded more commonly, but it doesn't mean the original form is not out there still, and doesn't mean that any resistance to any more dangerous form is given.
It's a bit like Trump's "more positive tests, less deaths" as a measure of danger.
 
Bluemoon dan said:
Apologies for this as I'm sure this question has been asked and answered dozens of times before on here but what is going on with that death from March? I can understand it taking a few days or even weeks to confirm deaths and causes etc but that's from 5 months ago? That was pre-lockdown!
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It is very rare to go that far back. I cannot recall even the last April death added. And likely must be connected with the change in how deaths are regarded.

Or perhaps a lengthy inquest that has just concluded cause of death?
 
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