COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[jay_mcfc]

Yep you've just pretty much said what I have been saying. At the moment we have it under control and no signs of a second wave, unlike countries who locked down harder and not as many people caught it as a result. Was always going to be about the long game. Interesting that Spain have been getting over 3k cases a day for over a month yet the deaths of staying low. One to keep an eye on, a professor was on TV this morning and he was talking about viral load which has been mentioned many times and whether that is a factor in not as many falling ill.

Spain had it under control too, so did Germany and others. It’s what happens next what’s important.

 

[True_Blue69]

Spain had it under control too, so did Germany and others. It’s what happens next what’s important.

Germany still has it under control, unless 1 or 2 deaths a day is out of control? Course what happens next is what's important, the point im making is when we look back, our more relaxed lockdown may look to have worked better than countries who took a more strict approach.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I find the expression of the R number in the UK as a range (currently 0.9-1.1) unhelpful. I realise it's due to estimation and regional differences, but there is a lot of difference either side of 1.

 

[Healdplace]

The R number is really a pretty poor marker as it is often a week old. In truth the number of cases versus the number of tests carried out. The % marker I quote from everywhere - bar England who seem not to care about it and prefer the R number from last week instead - is maybe 24 hours out of date and more reactive to outbreaks and containing them which is what we have to deal with not theoretrical national numbers.

Relying on things from last week not 24 hours old is what caused it to be considered a good idea to relax restrictions in Bolton based on data from a week before just as they had the worst outbreak in cases of any place in Greater Manchester throughout the restriction period.

One measure easily spotted that. The other will only really do so after the restrictions are removed.

 

[Healdplace]

Just announced by the BBC that Andy Burnham is writing to the government to ask them to reconsider the restriction removal in Bolton and Trafford.

Which had they been following the numbers as we can in this thread (so not exactly rocket science or difficult to access) then they would not even need to be asked as they would have raised the red flag on their own.

This over dependence on less illuminating data needs to stop at this stage in the pandemic.

I dont understand why scientists are not saying this to the government.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data first up.

9 deaths - though only 5 of them were in the past week and three are nearly a month old.

However 7 of the nine are from the North West including 3 of the most recent 5.

Last Tuesday the corresponding figure was 15 with 8 from the north west so today's data is good news.

 

[Phil1]

Germany still has it under control, unless 1 or 2 deaths a day is out of control? Course what happens next is what's important, the point im making is when we look back, our more relaxed lockdown may look to have worked better than countries who took a more strict approach.

It's not just solely based on wherever there's been a strict lock down or not as far as Spain goes. It's simply a case of many more tests being done so many more positive cases being reported.
Its no coincidence that with the relaxation of the lockdown and more and more people mingling in bars restaurants etc that there's been a spike.
The positive is the numbers of serious cases seems to be miles lower than the first time around so there's cause to believe the strain may be weaker, though there's also the element of younger people are now getting it who aren't as vulnerable as the older generation.

 

[Healdplace]

The England data reads:~

31 Aug = 1 after one day.

30 Aug adds 2 = 2 after two days.

29 Aug adds 0 = 1 after three days.

28 Aug adds 1 = 2 after four days.

27 Aug adds 0 = 5 atter five days.

26 Aug adds 1 = 9 after six days.

None of the earlier deaths put the total number of deaths for their date in early August above single figures. And the creeping plateau or even upward trend in England hospital death numbers seems to have slowed in the past few days.

Tentatively this is good news. So long as it stays as low as it is.

Especially as Tuesday used to see a big catch up add on of deaths from over the weekend when fewer are registered. But that has all but gone away.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data is high again.

Happily 0 deaths.

But 154 cases at 1.2% - a worrying over 1% rise here.

Also now SIX in ICU Ventilator beds (up amother 1).

And 264 in hospital which seems a significant rise again.

 

[grunge]

More on masks.

new evidence that masks do actually help the wearer as well as to help infected reduce spreading.

Evidence that they help reduce the viral loads dramatically, it wont stop you getting it, but they can help lower the viral load meaning less severe symptoms