COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

The GM scoreboard is less good news as it is only very slightly down on yesterday's record 649 at 642. So that represents a proportional increase in the NW total cotributed by GM today.

There were some record scores. And only two boroughs made it below 30 (and not by much). So mixed bag with 6 of the ten boroughs down and the other 4 up on yesterday.

Even so none of them did what Birmingham did - set a record daily total for one place at 193 new cases in 24 hours. Though that is I think the largest borough in the UK and has the largest number of cases - after today totalling exactly 9000 - with a pop score (because of its size) that is still below everywhere in Greater Manchester at 788. Though not far off GMs best at Stockport so may not be for too long. If Stockport can get its act back together.

By the way the last few days huge numbers are pushing the NW close to being the first region to enter the 1000 club. Currently at 913. The next nearest is Yorkshire at 776. London entered the 500 club today at 501 but as you see is faring not far short of 2 x better than the north west on this score evening out population.

Might suggest economic fortunes of the two are a key factor in this disparity.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

I thought this was both interesting and suggests we don’t need to be quite so afraid of Covid-19. In essence it’s suggesting that all countries that had very low flu seasons in 2019/20 were effectively left a ‘tinder-box‘ of frail elderly people who the virus has since swept up and will, in all likelihood, sweep up some more throughout the autumn and winter, as any respiratory virus would. I don’t agree with all his conclusions but his description of why the graphs were always likely to look the same, whatever we did is interesting as is the correlation between low XS deaths last year and high death rates this year as well as the climatic effect.

Its a channel that has been pushing the same stuff for months - they have an agenda. Essentially they look for any data which reinforces that agenda and the post it as fact.

 

[Quad]

a lot of older people don’t care , tons want to live for today , my partner grandparents in 90 ‘s goto the supermarket just to get out , bro in law grandparent’s still go out for Sunday lunch to the pub too

my own dad went out all lockdown , goes to the pub , he in 70’s , goes to bowls all the old boys the same

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 92 - down from 102, but obviously still way up from where they were - 96 last Saturday and 27 two Saturdays ago - showing the speed of this outbreak. 1585 in month (new record here). 640 past week (actually down from record). 194 over 2 days (was 178 - so going wrong way here). Pop score up 32 taking it into 1300 club at 1316 after staying just 3 days in the 1200s!

Bury 51 - down from 69 and would have been a record but for yesterday. 567 in month (record). 274 past week (record). 120 over 2 days (was 105) (record). Pop score up 27 to 1085.

Manchester - bad bad day at 156 - up from 144 to new GM record in a day. 1667 in month (new GM record). This is just under 30% of the entire number of cases here through the 6 months plus of the pandemic just over the last 4 weeks.

Oldham 69 - up from 59 (new record). 864 in month (record). 357 past week (record). 128 over 2 days (was 97) (record). Pop score up record 29 points to hurl it into the 1500 club at 1511 after just 4 days in the 1400s. Blackburn ha its highest day today too so it stays ahead of Oldham as worst NW towm at 1526 - also entering the same club today.

Rochdale 60 - up from 42 - to , you guessed it, another new record. 645 in month (new record) 278 past week (record). 102 over 2 days (was 71) (record). Pop score up recrd 27 to 1253.

Salford 51 - down from 64 - but 4 successive days in the 50s/60s - a level never seen here before. 762 in month (record). 326 past week (record). 115 over 2 days (was 117). Pop score up 19 to 954 and days away from the 1000 club which I never expected to happen here 6 weeks ago to GMs then best borough.

Stockport 29 - down from 40 - good improvement today but still well over normal level. 399 in month (record). 197 past week. (record) but just still below 200 - perhaps for 24 hours. 69 over 2 days (was 72). Pop score up 10 - lowest rise today - to 796. Will be the last day GM has a borough in the 700 club sadly. But staved it off for 24 hours at least. And actually made up ground in this race today to keep others at bay.

Tameside 49 - down from yesterdays record 50 but by just one and now 6 of the last 9 days have had numbers in the 40s. So at least it is not escalating out of control here as it looked like it might do a few days back. 690 in month (record). 276 past week (record). 99 over 2 days (was 72) (record). Pop score 21 taking it into the 1100 club at 1108 after less than a week in the 1000s.

Trafford 26 - down from 30 - lowest in GM again today. but still double where it was last week like Stockport. 391 in month. Just on top of Stockport as best in GM here by 8. 145 past week - best in GM still though like everywhere going up and the sub 100 a week days of here, Stockport and Wigan vanished over past two weeks. 56 over 2 days (was 48) (record). Pop score up 11 to 834. (slightly higher rise than Stockport despite 3 less cases today due to population sizes).

Wigan 59 - up from 49 to new highrest ever score here. Wigan is the biggest problem in GM at these levels from what was 0,1 and 2 levels of just 2 or 3 weeks ago. It has probably pro rata risen the most in the period of its freedom from restrictions. Not helped by Bolton I am sure. It is hard to justify being singled out from the rest of GM right now. Hopefully it will change. 516 in month (record). 275 past week. Its days of vying with Trafford and Stockport for lowest weekly numbers are long gone. 108 over 2 days (was 88) (record and getting over 100 in 2 days was inimaginable a month ago when it even once got - 2 one day and so a two day total of nil). Pop score up 18 to 848 and quickly seen Trafford disappear over the horizon in second place chasing Stockport.

 

[Healdplace]

Comparing Wigan who were exempted from restrictions, Stockport who were taken out of them after being in and Trafford who asked not to be taken out though they were offered freedom is fascinating

It begs the question have the GM restrictions made any difference at all to how somewhere fares?

It is hard to see much difference betweem Stockport and Trafford - one in, one taken out of the restrictions the past weeks. Cases are slightly better now in Trafford than Stockport but not to a degree it is obvious and pop score changes are very similar.

Yet Wigan out of the restrictions the longest has gone stratospheric.

Here are the numbers going forward from 5 weeks ago today every 7 days to today for these three boroughs.

See if you could figure out which was always restrcted. which not and which was and then had it removed part way in

In order 15 Aug, 22 Aug, 29 Aug, 5 Sep, 12 Sep, 19 Sep:-


Stockport 13, 7, 4, 8, 25, 29


Trafford 10, 8, 11, 9, 12, 26


Wigan 3, 4, 6, 14, 23, 59.


Wigan out of restrictions all through has just gone up and up. Though only really post the Bolton outbreak.

Stockport and Trafford seem to be having very similar 5 week runs regardless of in or out.

 

[Out on blue 6]

Comparing Wigan who were exempted from restrictions, Stockport who were taken out of them after being in and Trafford who asked not to be taken out though they were offered freedom is fascinating

It begs the question have the GM restrictions made any difference at all to how somewhere fares?

It is hard to see much difference betweem Stockport and Trafford - one in, one taken out of the restrictions the past weeks. Cases are slightly better now in Trafford than Stockport but not to a degree it is obvious and pop score changes are very similar.

Yet Wigan out of the restrictions the longest has gone stratospheric.

Here are the numbers going forward from 5 weeks ago today every 7 days to today for these three boroughs.

See if you could figure out which was always restrcted. which not and which was and then had it removed part way in

In order 15 Aug, 22 Aug, 29 Aug, 5 Sep, 12 Sep, 19 Sep:-


Stockport 13, 7, 4, 8, 25, 29


Trafford 10, 8, 11, 9, 12, 26


Wigan 3, 4, 6, 14, 23, 59.


Wigan out of restrictions all through has just gone up and up. Though only really post the Bolton outbreak.

Stockport and Trafford seem to be having very similar 5 week runs regardless of in or out.

Any idea where some of the original lockdown places like Leicester are at the moment. There seemed to be a downturn in cases for a while but like most things in the media the story moved on. My suspicion is it takes more than a couple of weeks to see a significant change.

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data still going upwards:

England patients up 60 to 1048 in last 24 hours. So back over 1000 for first time since 23 July.



Regionally NW up to 335 (from 312). Yorkshire up 201 to 214. Midlands 200 to 215 London 146 to 157.

So North West as expected biggest rise.

Ventiulator patients in England up yet again to 123 - 8 more than yesterday.

In the last 7 days that is a rise from 70 to 123 not far off doubling.

15 July was last time it was this high in England and they were fallingand kept falling to the bank holiday weekend end of August and its been a steep climb up since.

London added 7 new ventilator patients today to go up to 32. Only 1 less than the NW now.

 

[Healdplace]

Any idea where some of the original lockdown places like Leicester are at the moment. There seemed to be a downturn in cases for a while but like most things in the media the story moved on. My suspicion is it takes more than a couple of weeks to see a significant change.

Leicester are a very odd case as I have mentioned on here before.

So I am surprised no scientists are looking into why it has behaved how it has.

It did not like most other places (all of GM for instance) peak around April 10 after a sharp rise of a month and then fall very slowly right up to the increases of the past two or three weeks.

It rose more slowly in a steady but modest path upward and was well below other places when the majority peaked. It was only by around late June it got to the levels other places had been over 2 months earlier. They then introduced the lockdown and it fell slowly. Until it was at the bottom around late July when other places started to be at their nadir.

By then it was at about where it was in mid April when the UK was at the peak and over 1000 a day were dying.

It then went on falling in August up to the pouint 2/3 weeks ago where cases everywhere went up.

By that point it was at the level it was in the very early days of the pandemic in late March . About 15% of the number of cases they were having by the time restrictions were imposed.

Like ewverywhere else it has risen since August Bank Holiday but is still under half where it was at its peak in late June. And has shown early signs of falling again.

Leicester is a very baffling set of data. No idea why it does not get much attention.

 

[Out on blue 6]

Leicester are a very odd case as I have mentioned on here before.

So I am surprised no scientists are looking into why it has behaved how it has.

It did not like most other places (all of GM for instance) peak around April 10 after a sharp rise of a month and then fall very slowly right up to the increases of the past two or three weeks.

It rose more slowly in a steady but modest path upward and was well below other places when the majority peaked. It was only by around late June it got to the levels other places had been over 2 months earlier. They then introduced the lockdown and it fell slowly. Until it was at the bottom around late July when other places started to be at their nadir.

By then it was at about where it was in mid April when the UK was at the peak and over 1000 a day were dying.

It then went on falling in August up to the pouint 2/3 weeks ago where cases everywhere went up.

By that point it was at the level it was in the very early days of the pandemic in late March . About 15% of the number of cases they were having by the time restrictions were imposed.

Like ewverywhere else it has risen since August Bank Holiday but is still under half where it was at its peak in late June. And has shown early signs of falling again. @

Leicester is a very baffling set of data. No idea why it does not get much attention.

Ok thanks as always for the response. The movement of people in the GM area as a whole is the problem. I live 10 miles from Birmingham who are going to start having the same sort of problems but the problem is the amount of people commuting in and out of the City to work each day. It's a big issue

 

[Healdplace]

Yes, as I have noted a few times in here exemptions in GM can never really be much help as there are no border posts and people cross from borough to borough to shop, eat out, go to the pub etc etc all the time. I never really got why it was not a county wide set of restrictions. All or nothing. Though it does not look like the restrictions are much use in changing things in GM anyway given the numbers. And I doubt they will elsewhere where you can easily move out of a restricted area if you choose.

Half hearted measures usually result in little success in life unfortunately.