COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[grunge]

It’s socio economic status and jobs being done, underlying health conditions and living in houses of multiple occupancy, but it’s not ‘because‘ they are BAME.

Its been proven though that VitD is a key assistant in helping severity of the impact of the virus, and BAME have a harder time producing VitD. so while your right ( and i've made the point in the past ) that socioeconomics and multiple occupancy will play a far bigger part. there is evidence that BAME groups are at higher risk.

 

[gingerprince]

Are we in a situation here where the nhs will be overwhelmed because currently the number of covid patients

is rising but deaths not as higher % at peak. So although direct covid mortality may be better than % at peak,

hospital services for non covid patients will be significantly worse for longer period of time, so indirect deaths

will increase. Is this because covid patient management is better, so higher numbers of patients dont die say

as quickly but stay in hospital bed for longer til discharge or did first wave kill off huge numbers of people with

underlying causes so average % of them is now lower v rest of population?

 

[BlueAnorak]

I see Whitty the gloom and doom man is clIming daily infections could be as high as 76k a day.
Yet real world studies (ONS and Zoe to name but two) say its 26k a day.
Time for him to be moved asside I think.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Its been proven though that VitD is a key assistant in helping severity of the impact of the virus, and BAME have a harder time producing VitD. so while your right ( and i've made the point in the past ) that socioeconomics and multiple occupancy will play a far bigger part. there is evidence that BAME groups are at higher risk.

Although they could take vitamin C?

 

[KS55]

This sums it up for me , boris is safe with a huge majority , four years till election and they wont want a leadership battle during a pandemic , stop playing politics with this ffs

But Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said "baseline" Tier 3 measures "almost certainly aren't enough" to get infection numbers down.

And asked if people would die as a result of the row between Downing Street and Manchester leaders, he said: "It is important to go quite fast on this... The sooner you do that the sooner you get this under control."

Todays briefing

I thought Burnham's comment that the gov was "gambling with the economy" was an utter disgrace. Would he prefer to gamble with peoples lives?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I see Whitty the gloom and doom man is clIming daily infections could be as high as 76k a day.
Yet real world studies (ONS and Zoe to name but two) say its 26k a day.
Time for him to be moved asside I think.

You do wonder what they’re looking at unless there’s a secret data cache that they don’t publish.
As of 11 Oct, ave positive tests in Manchester decreased for 8 days in a row, & 19% lower than on 3rd Oct. In all of GM, new positive tests are flat.

 

[worsleyweb]

I thought Burnham's comment that the gov was "gambling with the economy" was an utter disgrace. Would he prefer to gamble with peoples lives?

typical socialist. I can’t be fucked on my own. The rest of the country has to be fucked to. He should have stood outside the library and told everyone to wear masks and keep apart, wash hands and minimise seeing elderly relatives close up.

career politician and wanker.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Quick Google gave this for London, up to Oct 12th.
View attachment 3896
Very clearly not herd immunity. Looks like an exponential increase just a few weeks behind the North.

What you would expect is that the seroprevalence would reduce R proportionately. So if London would have an R of 1.5, but has 20% seroprevalence, then it's actual R would be 1.2 (20% lower). So you might expect London's rate of increase to be lower due to the bigger outbreak there earlier. All assuming that immunity is defined by serology and persists.

But all of this is overwhelmed by behaviour - the R for normal population is about 3.5.

Why the fuck they show that graph is beyond me. Back in March and April the numbers were 10-15 times more than those cases reported.

 

[kaz7]

Are we in a situation here where the nhs will be overwhelmed because currently the number of covid patients

is rising but deaths not as higher % at peak. So although direct covid mortality may be better than % at peak,

hospital services for non covid patients will be significantly worse for longer period of time, so indirect deaths

will increase. Is this because covid patient management is better, so higher numbers of patients dont die say

as quickly but stay in hospital bed for longer til discharge or did first wave kill off huge numbers of people with

underlying causes so average % of them is now lower v rest of population?

Long covid needs , i have been at / in hospital three times since march , i am currently using lung function and CT tests , been to see the lung consultant so outpatient as well now , there is estimates it is affecting thousands of us, from memory an estimate of 100,000 will be affected , there are rehab places for us already , this will be a big drain on resources that will have to be factored in

 

[BlueAnorak]

the new look map is quite decent.

the scales have changed though, its showing most of the south where manchester was about a month or so ago though.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

True but restrictions have been put in place We need to see EVIDENCE that the Tier 1 restrictions aren't working before going further.