COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Also daily figures as per the much missed chart from Gelson's Dad shows 40 only yesterday - that's now 8 successive days under 60 on the day. And 10 of the last 11 (the other was 66 on April 4th).
 
I’ve been ignoring things about this starting in a lab, thinking they meant it was man made in a lab, which I didn’t believe.

I didn’t realise this lab was a bat coronavirus testing lab with actual live bats with coronavirus.

And if true about the state of the working conditions and lack of health and safety in the lab; then China need to be asked some hard questions!

wouldn’t trust any shite from YouTube videos to be honest.

overwhelming majority of leading experts say this didn’t come from a lab.
 
Add on figures in the 5 day band that he put on that graph show a new positive too. The 5th day add on total for April 8th has only reached 190. The first time sub 200 deaths after 5 days have been added up and recorded for recent dates since the early phase of the outbreak,

On 8 April at the peak the day one total was 140 and the 5 day total 737 by comparison.

Last I looked it was up to about 884 for that date as new deaths keep getting added on in ones and twos over time.
 
Without a vaccine it will take quite long to reach herd immunity (if CV remains the same):

Let's say UK herd immunity is 66% of persons infected.
That would be 44m cases for UK.
Let's assume the true number of UK cases is 2m, as an example. Remain 42m to be infected.
Even if we would allow 5,000 new cases any single day from now on
it would take about 23 years to reach 66% HE:

5,000 x365 days x23 yrs = 42m.

23 years. Would you think more than 5k per day is within NHS capacity?

Would it be possible at all to keep R=1 at 5k without overshooting??

We can scrap all those HE theories and just hope for a vaccine.


Lockdown the older Generations.....

Free the young let them build up the herd immunity.

The virus is less deadly for the young, they are also less likely to need Hospital treatment.
 
Lockdown the older Generations.....

Free the young let them build up the herd immunity.

The virus is less deadly for the young, they are also less likely to need Hospital treatment.
As someone pointed out 5,000 new cases a day would take 23 years to build up the 66% herd immunity required. Letting the youngsters mix may well increase that to 50,000 a day and thus reduce the time required to a couple of years.

The problem is that if 1% of the 50k needed hospitalisation that's 500 people every day and with the average stay of several weeks, the system would struggle.
 
Surely the government has to be firmer but at the same time realistic. If they want significant numbers returning to work then the mooted 10% capacity limit for public transport is simply unworkable, social distancing is bound to be compromised, especially in the major cities. So why didn't the government make it compulsory to have the nose and mouth covered before being allowed on public transport rather than just offering "advice" when there's plenty of evidence that a sizeable minority in this country will only heed advice if they're inconvenienced when they ignore it.

I think it's because they are idiots or are involved in an experiment to see if they can let this spread just enough to get away with concentrating on their priority.
 
But what you're describing there means your mum is meeting more than one person from outside of her household at the same time. And then when meet your cousin and his wife you are meeting more than one person from outside of yours? Not trying to challenge you or anything, just trying to make sense of it. Am I misunderstanding it?
No you are right
 
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