COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

Sorry but you're rewriting history there. That was not the consensus of opinion in July.

The Chief Medical Officer said in July that the UK had reached its limit on how much more could be opened up if the virus was to be kept under control. The government responded by spending all of August telling us that we all ought to needlessly go back to the office even if we could do our jobs perfectly well at home. That was clearly over and above what Whitty was saying we could afford to do. Especially with us needing to keep the decks clear in order to make way for schools to reopen.

Scientists have repeatedly warned us that we were a long way off any kind of return to normality. So it's entirely correct to criticise the government for having to change its messaging

Many scientists agreed with what the government did and for nearly 2 months it worked. People have got careless recently. Especially dick heads going on pub crawls - one of which gave us virtually the entire Bolton outbreak.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I can only assume Boris is trying in this next phase of measures to reduce the rate of infection levels to a more manageable level, whilst still giving the public a small carrot.

Should there be no measurable impact, I can see pubs being closed fully again

What a load of tosh. If you can't see how it spreads, there really is no hope for you.

 

[bluejon]

In total the number of excess deaths in England and Wales in 2020 to the week ending 11 September now stands at 53,376 more than the five-year average. 52,482 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, 12.1% of all deaths in England and Wales

Coronavirus news live: Donald Trump announces rollout of 150 million 'rapid' COVID-19 tests

The latest COVID-19 news as millions download the NHS Test and Trace app, the 10pm curfew is enforced and daily cases spike.

news.sky.com

Arghhhhhhh. Aye, and that peak ended in the first week of June. Expected deaths have remained pretty much as they should be since. See the "All Persons" figure below.
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/stati...lance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

The restrictions now are still less onerous than pre summer. Public places are still open.

There are also exceptions to meeting in households, including gardens, or for informal childcare, work/trades etc.

It is not great. I personally disagree with some of the logic, i.e how is it safer for me to see a friend in a pub than at his or mine.

Time will tell. It is pretty clear the restrictions target an age group and lifestyle, but it does broadbrush affect everyone at the same time.

I can see it gradually getting back to the restrictions we had in april/may.

There's not a chance in hell that they'll be able to put us back in our boxes again, people just won't accept it. Their error (in this area) was letting us out too quickly when they should've gradually released their grip and given us extra liberties bit by bit/in stages. It's harder to cage a free animal than it is to re-cage one that's still tethered to a stake.

 

[Healdplace]

You're looking at the figures wrong. Covid deaths are a random variable exhibiting variance over time so being happy it going down 5 in one day, then worrying it goes up by 7 the next day is incorrect. You need to look at the long term trend which is staying static (the curve is not increasing in an upward direction). The figures have only doubled if the mean over time doubles, which it hasn't. There's also the issue that they are counting all deaths as covid if they have tested positive for covid. The numbers unfortunately aren't very accurate.

Well you are a statistician and I am not so I am not going to argue with you on this. You obviously are the expert and I am not in any way. And I will be overjoyed if you are right here as it would be excellent news. And, of course, the numbers are still at March levels and almost certainly will never get near the April ones. We all want that.And I agree they likely will not from where we are.

But if having twice as many people on ventilators with Covid across 7 days after months of them steadily going downward. then plateauing for a week or two, now escalating is not significant I am glad I am not taking any maths exams any time soon.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

There was no break tbrough on immunity in june, it was assumed which is now out of date ,hancock and whitty said yesterday tnat people have got it twice, milder and they are not sure if they can spread it so talk about immunity in june is no longer relevant ,why would i want to read that ?

i asked you for a different link to brazil yesterday as it was asking for my details , the moment has passed now ,i am much more concerned with todays news here, this immunity is pertinent to me , i have no interest in brazil so i dont know why you want me to read up and discuss that , it is enough to follow europe and america , i am happy enough to leave it there

Ok fine, if you cant be bothered reading up on things can I sugest you dont stick your self righteous nose into conversations about subjects that you have little or no knowledge of, as all it does is end up antagonising other posters.

 

[Coatigan]

There's not a chance in hell that they'll be able to put us back in our boxes again, people just won't accept it. Their error (in this area) was letting us out too quickly when they should've gradually released their grip and given us extra liberties bit by bit/in stages. It's harder to cage a free animal than it is to re-cage one that's still tethered to a stake.

At some point, the penny will have to drop and common sense creep in, with the public and society. Otherwise, it will be rinse repeat. Once we get to a point where very few take the piss, with or without restrictions in place, it may slow down. Hopefully.

 

[paulchapo]

It is odd Boris is so adamant that these restrictions will stay in place for six months, which is going against how the government has handled things so far.

 

[bluejon]

Well you are a statistician and I am not so I am not going to argue with you on this. And I will be overjoyed if you are right here as it would be excellent news. And, of course, the numbers are still at March levels and almost certainly will never get near the April ones. We all want that.And I agree they likely will not from where we are.

But if having twice as many people on ventilators with Covid across 7 days after months of them steadily going downward. the plateauing for a week or two, now escalating is not significant I am glad I am not taking any maths exams any time soon.

I'm expecting a slight rise in numbers, primarily because people who are becoming ill from other causes get more ill over time thus making them more susceptible to covid-19, something more likely to happen as winter approaches, but, and this is key, if the numbers don't start skyrocketing, and regardless of the garbage that whitty presented the other day, they currently aren't, then we can relax a bit. As was mentioned above, only 1% of current UK deaths are from covid-19. That is a virus very much under control.

 

[MeatnSpudsMCFC]

Well that’s Xmas cancelled then, no chance of going on a works do or anything really, time to stack up on loo roll and pasta again I reckon.

Things are finally looking up.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I'm supposed to be in Malaga on Friday and that's off. I had two flights changed so BA let me cancel and refund. I want to go to South Wales for the weekend now and that looks screwed too.

And as for the pubs thing... Table service in some of the watering holes I drink in? It won't catch on!

Those pubs where it doesn't catch on will be closed.

 

[Mon Autre]

Many scientists agreed with what the government did and for nearly 2 months it worked. People have got careless recently. Especially dick heads going on pub crawls - one of which gave us virtually the entire Bolton outbreak.

I don't think many people at all, apart from their friends with city centre property portfolios, saw the merit in forcing people unnecessarily onto public transport and into offices.

 

[Healdplace]

blujon I see that argument and of course they are not skyrocketng and hopefully never do.

and the what should count as a covid death is a viable other argument.

But the majority of England hospital deaths get recorded for any day in the first five days and if you total the number of deaths at five days up to 17 September (most recent date where we have a five day total) they currently read:

28 Aug - 3 Sep Total of the 7 days = 29 (average about 4 per day)

4 Sep - 10 Sep Total of the 7 days = 49 (average 7 per day)

11 Sep - 17 Sep total of the 7 days = 79 (average over 11 per day).

In statistical terms as a non mathematician I would perceive that as a signficant increase in death numbers over 21 days. I assume I should not be doing. But intuitively it sure looks like a pretty meaningful upward curve.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Even if he's worked out his chances of dying, what about the chances of everyone he comes into contact with? Can we say that every single one of the 50,000 who have died wanted to die?

This is the thing with COVID, it's all well and good saying you don't mind dying until you are the one dying and the poor hospital staff are given the task of choosing who lives and who dies because of this selfish behaviour.

But he stays at home, wears a mask when out and practices social distancing in the pub, so hows that selfish behaviour?

 

[bluejon]

blujon I see that argument and of course they are not skyrocketng and hopefully never do.

and the what should count as a covid death is a viable other argument.

But the majority of deaths get recorded for any day in the first five days and if you total the number of deaths at five days up to 17 September (most recent date where we have a five day total) they currently read:

28 Aug - 3 Sep Total of the 7 days = 29

4 Sep - 10 Sep Total of the 7 days = 49

11 Sep - 17 Sep total of the 7 days = 79

In statistical terms as a non mathematician I would perceive that as a signficant increase in death numbers over 21 days. I assume I should not be doing. But intuitively it sure looks like a pretty meaningful upward curve.

I found the data you are referring to there, I was looking at different data, but it shows a similar trend. To put it really bluntly, when bugger all is doubled, it's still not very much. 79 people out of 70 million or so is not a national crisis.

 

[Fame Monster]

I hope the Government are taking the advice from SAGE with a huge pinch of salt after the dreadful advice about borders and mass gatherings in the first wave of the pandemic that cost 40,000+ lives.

Whitty, Valance and whoever else was involved should have been strung up by the bollocks by now for their failures.

 

[Healdplace]

bluejon I have not described it as a national crisis. Just a concerning rise in numbers.

Like these

37 all settings deaths. (most in 2 months)

4926 new cases. Highest yet.

 

[mrbelfry]

The correct answer is only one person (usually) dies at a funeral.....

Hopefully they are already dead by the funeral

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

The Monday night fixture might cause a few landlords a fucking enormous headache. 20:15 ko. with customers being asked to leave by 22:00.
Let's see if the Premier League play their part now.

 

[Healdplace]

4926 cases from 188,865 pillar 1 & 2 tests versus 219, 723 tests yesterday for 4368 cases.

Which looks like a fairly big / statistically insignifgicant (no idea which) rise in the positive % rate from yesterday to today.