COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 3 last week

3286 cases - was 1887 last week

18,721 weekly cases - was 17,248 yesterday & 12,768 last week

46 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 44 YESTERDAY & 38 LAST WEEK

256 Patients - was 254 yesterday & 312 last week

25 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & 24 last week

 

[Gabriel]

 

[Healdplace]

That South Africa data seems to be very similar to London.

Big rise, then flattening off but at a pretty high level.

We are yet to see if they will fall more from that plateau or stay there for weeks at similar levels.

Makes a big difference to whether the UK war with Omicron on London anyhow will be over by Christmas as they said in 1939 (or New Year at best ) or mid January or Spring.

Big difference to health care and probable total deaths from it however milder it is.

Or am I reading those graphs wrong? Maths is not my strong point.

 

[Corky]

That South Africa data seems to be very similar to London.

Big rise, then flattening off but at a pretty high level.

We are yet to see if they will fall more from that plateau or stay there for weeks at similar levels.

Makes a big difference to whether the UK war with Omicron on London anyhow will be over by Christmas as they said in 1939 (or New Year at best ) or mid January or Spring.

Big difference to health care and probable total deaths from it however milder it is.

Or am I reading those graphs wrong? Maths is not my strong point.

Neither is history, it was 1914.

 

[Healdplace]

Neither is history, it was 1914.

I know you were jesting. But apparently it was both.

I was born just a few years after WW 11 ended (I recall rationing and bomb sites in Manchester) and my parents lived through it. They told me that this was the common view in the early months - that Hitler did not want war V Britain - just to recapture territories lost and as he marched across Europe with speed and took them but ignored Britain and they all hoped it would be over by Christmas.

Maybe it was carried over from World War 1 as it was only like us looking back now on the Millennium so very recent memory and likely the two were connected. But that sentiment was common I was told.

 

[Healdplace]

The numbers for Greater Manchester today are even more remarkable than yesterday. I had to keep double checking as they look impossible. But true.

Manchester on its own has over 2000 cases! Not one borough in the ten scored UNDER 500 cases!

Several Pop Scores over 300 in one day. One not far off 400.

Records not just set but obliterated.

By sheer size alone these will cause the NW hospital numbers to shoot up over Christmas/New Year week even with the lower severity.

These rises are what we were told to expect given the Omicron doubling rate but they are still a shock.

Merry Christmas!

 

[Healdplace]

Have decided to let it be now for a few days. Not going to post the usual tables (though I will keep the data). And take Christmas away from them.

The good news outweighs the bad anyway and we all need to be free of this stuff over this weekend.

Perhaps GM will be going down by early next week. Much rather post falling numbers anyway.

Not going to let Covid be a downer.

Have a great Christmas everyone.

See you next week.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Interesting that in Warrington last week there were 750 more positive cases week ending 23/12 (2400 testing positive). However, tests were down by 19000 for the week. Probably a combination of people avoiding testing due to Xmas or having no symptoms. Hopefully more of the latter.

 

[Healdplace]

Will do one last GM post showing todays numbers. To get them on record here for after Christmas HOPING these are the height of it. And these can then be a memento of how bad things got before they got better.


NORTH WEST TODAY 16, 529 - up from 14.759 yesterday and from 7999 last Friday.

GM TODAY 8168 - MORE THAN THE ENTIRE NORTH WEST HAD LAST FRIDAY! -

Up 1935 on yesterday & 4529 on last Friday's 3639. GM 49.4% of the NW total today Well up on last 2 days.



MANCHESTER 2084 - up 833 on yesterday & Up 1268 on last week POP SCORE 375* (now 21,288) Highest pop score in GM today and obliterated the highest ever Pop Score by miles. Highest ever cases on one day in GM. More than all 10 boroughs combined on most days up to a week or so ago. Entered the 21K club and well on its way to exiting again into the 22K club!

SALFORD 951 - Up 283 on yesterday & Up 522 on last week POP SCORE 362 (now 21,760) Highest Pop score in GM across the pandemic - 563 now ahead of Rochdale.Lost a further 133 today alone! Another score anywhere near this tomorrow and it will enter the 22K club after just 3 days in the 21K club - shortest ever stay in a 1000 club by anyone in GM.

STOCKPORT 879 - up 295 on yesterday & Up 426 on last week POP SCORE 299 - Just sub 300 but highest ever Pop Score here (now 19,993) JUST delayed exiting into the 20 K club until tomorrow as its cases would have to fall by about 869 of that 879 in order not to do so !

TRAFFORD 730 - up 238 on yesterday & Up 376 on last week POP SCORE 307 (now 20,991) Now a staggering 998 behind Stockport but will like them exit into the 21K club tomorrow just as Stockport enters the 20K one!

OLDHAM 696 - up 394 on yesterday & up 513 on last week POP SCORE 293 (now 20,729) HIghest ever scores here and a giant rise week to week.

WIGAN 692 DOWN 123 on yesterday - yes DOWN! - but up 391 on last week POP SCORE 209 (now 20,701)

BOLTON 575 - DOWN 66 on yesterday & up 321 on last week POP SCORE 199* (now 19,829) - * Lowest Pop Score in GM today added whole 100 onto its lead over Stockport in one day! Now 164 ahead of Stockport but unless Bolton does even better tomorrow BOTH will exit the 19K club and leave GM with nobody at all under 20K on Christmas Day, What a rubbish present that would be.


TAMESIDE 542 - DOWN 34 on yesterday & up 258 on last week. POP SCORE 238 (now 20,750). Another falling on the day


BURY 516 - up 34 on yesterday & up 197 on last week POP SCORE 270 (now 21,000) Another highest ever score here and EXACTLY enough to take it into the 21K club


ROCHDALE 513 up 81 on yesterday & up 267 on last week POP SCORE 229 (now 21, 197) Well and truly entered the 21K club today.



First time ever obviously nobody in GM had LESS than 500 cases. Remember a week or two ago the days when NOBODY in GM had over 500! And when the lowest Pop Score was around 30 not just one below 200!

 

[Healdplace]

REGIONAL SCORES TODAY


LONDON 26,342 - up from 26, 307 V 26,608 last week. Very FLAT but at a pretty high level still sadly.

SOUTH EAST17,638 - up from 16,618 V 14,959 last week. Again pretty flat now. NW close to overtaking.

NORTH WEST 16,529 - up from 14,759 V 7999 last week. The one with the upward momentum - but to where?

EAST 11,001 - down from 13,091 V 10,514 . This has flattened off like London

EAST MIDLANDS 8685 - up from 7944 V 5887 Seems to be next in the queue to follow NW on the way up

SOUTH WEST 6888 - DOWN from 8058 V 5099 . Seems to have peaked here.

WEST MIDLANDS 6799 - DOWN from 9921 V 5126.. Big drop today so hard to call which way it is headed.

YORKSHIRE 6664 - up from 5947 V 3971 . Another edging upwards.

NORTH EAST 2942 - up from 2795 V 2513. Possibly THE best region in England at the moment. Zoe agrees.