COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

Its shabby isnt it? Biggest pandemic in 100 years and they cant even release daily data.

I agree but I was very happy to have a few days off without looking for it.

I think they sensed the break for the nation for a few days was likely good for all psychologically as a long winter still awaits.

Hence why they will want another break this weekend.

I am sure if the need was dire enough they would ensure data was made available And they may even have had it privately and just not published.

As the news just now claimed Scotland had its highest ever cases over this past weekend. Though Gov UK reports them as three nills.

 

[Gabriel]

South Africa reported a quick rise in cases but that was then followed by a realization that the majority were not necessarily deteriorating to the extent that they required ICU treatment and that, indeed, they were able to be discharged comparatively quickly. If England is not anticipating further restrictions, then presumably the government has already reached a similar conclusion.

 

[Healdplace]

South Africa reported a quick rise in cases but that was then followed by a realization that the majority were not necessarily deteriorating to the extent that they required ICU treatment and that, indeed, they were able to be discharged comparatively quickly. If England is not anticipating further restrictions, then presumably the government has already reached a similar conclusion.

That may well be exactly what will happen.

But the numbers on ventilators have also risen over the Christmas weekend - by 34 to 776 and 25 of those were in London on a new recent high of 231 and alongside the big NW patient rise today there were 17 extra ventilator patients added too. Biggest daily rise here in ages after falling for weeks into the mid 70s - one of the lowest numbers in months.

So I am not yet willing to be certain that this South Africa impact will cross continents given the higer number of older vulnerable patients in the UK than over there.

Though hopefully it will.

Again we have to wait, see and hope not assume it will follow suit. Which is what we seem to be doing without panicking into instant changes that may not be needed. But not ruling them out if things swing that way.

As I keep saying the hospital data over the next week or so will be pretty crucial to where we are really headed rather than where we all want to be headed. Hence not ruling out action but waiting to see until the New Year by when we should know more clearly surely makes sense.

 

[Gabriel]

That may well be exactly what will happen.

But the numbers on ventilators have also risen over the Christmas weekend - by 34 to 776 and 25 of those were in London on a new recent high of 231 and alongside the big NW patient rise today there were 17 extra ventilator patients added too. Biggest daily rise here in ages after falling for weeks into the mid 70s - one of the lowest numbers in months.

So I am not yet willing to be certain that this South Africa impact will cross continents given the higer number of older vulnerable patients in the UK than over there.

Though hopefully it will.

Again we have to wait, see and hope not assume it will follow suit. Which is what we seem to be doing without panicking into instant changes that may not be needed. But not ruling them out if things swing that way.

As I keep saying the hospital data over the next week or so will be pretty crucial to where we are really headed rather than where we all want to be headed. Hence not ruling out action but waiting to see until the New Year by when we should know more clearly surely makes sense.

I don't see making instant changes as necessarily panicking. The different governments in the UK seem to have decided on the levels of risk they wish to run. Last week, the Cabinet received the data it needed and an advanced look at the ONS figures on the Wednesday (usually published on Fridays), so it will presumably receive similar again this Wednesday. If it has deemed no change necessary so far, then it would have to see a marked change in the next couple of days for it to change tack this week. Any change thereafter would be akin to shutting the stable door.

 

[Healdplace]

I think they are clearly letting the hospitality and other industries that needed Christmas/New Year to have that and I will not be surprised if they do act early next week. SAYING they waited for the numbers to frm up.

The fact they had to recall parliament to act and that they knew compliance over Christmas would be hampered after the row over last year and Partygate probably meant they wanted to get that out of the way in hope post Christmas any restrictions would be easier to get compliance from.

Nobody feels like doing much in January, Staying in a warm house for a week rather than commuting to work will be a lot easier to agree to than not having Christmas and New Year parties.

And where we are already in this a week is at this stage not likely to change the game much tbh.

 

[Gabriel]

I think they are clearly letting the hospitality and other industries that needed Christmas/New Year to have that and I will not be surprised if they do act early next week. SAYING they waited for the numbers to frm up.

The fact they had to recall parliament to act and that they knew compliance over Christmas would be hampered after the row over last year and Partygate probably meant they wanted to get that out of the way in hope post Christmas any restrictions would be easier to get compliance from.

Nobody feels like doing much in January, Staying in a warm house for a week rather than commuting to work will be a lot easier to agree to than not having Christmas and New Year parties.

And where we are already in this a week is at this stage not likely to change the game much tbh.

Parliament is in recess until the 5th, so unless the Government receives definitive data to suggest it tighten restrictions immediately, I don’t see it being reconvened this week. It was on December 14th that Parliament agreed to the last restriction, so by the time it reconvenes it will be close to a month since then. Unless things start going horribly wrong this week, therefore, I just don’t see there being the political will amongst Conservatives to force through tighter restrictions. They’ll more likely see the country as having weathered the storm and allow the weather and darkness to keep people socially distanced.

 

[Healdplace]

Here are the three day highlights for the numbers. Not great news for North West, or Greater Manchester, nor if you live in Stockport - who became the second borough other than Manchester to top 1000 cases on Christmas Day. That said everyone was well down after that as presuambly fewer testing occurred Christmas. We do not know as these test numbers have not been reported since 23 December when there were 1.57 million that day:

CHRISTMAS DAY

113,628 cases ALL IN ENGLAND (So there were many more in the UK as yet unreported probably up to 125K or so)

BOXING DAY

108,893 - 103,558 in England and the other 5335 was in Wales. Where there were also 3 deaths.

TODAY

98,515 ALL IN ENGLAND (So again there were many more in the UK - Indeed Scotland are reported to have had record total over the weekend though it has not been announced and is not in any of the above numbers.

NB SCOTLAND DATA HAS JUST BEEN REPORTED BY THE BBC NOW BUT NOT ON GOV UK.

BBC SAY THEY HAD 11,030 CASES - THE HIGHEST EVER -

ON BOXING DAY TAKING THE UK NUMBER TO 119,923 WITH NORTHERN IRELAND STILL TO ADD.



ALSO NOW CONFIRMED SCOTLAND HAD 8252 CASES ON CHRISTMAS DAY TAKING THAT TOTAL THEN TO 121,880 WITH BOTH WALES & N IRELAND TO ADD



AND TODAY SCOTLAND ADDED 10,562 CASES TO THE UK TOTAL NOW OF 109,077 WITH WALES AND N IRELAND STILL TO ADD AGAIN

As you see the UK total was well over 100K on every day.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTH WEST & GM TOTALS OVER CHRISTMAS


NORTH WEST

CHRISTMAS DAY 16,548 (up 19 on day V 8309 last week)

BOXING DAY 14, 272 (down 2,276 on day V 6833 last week)

TODAY 13, 973 (down 299 on day V 7728 last week)



GREATER MANCHESTER


CHRISTMAS DAY 7540 (down 628 on day V 4317 last week) 45.6% of NW total

BOXING DAY 5451 (down 2089 on day - nearly all the NW fall V 3142 last week) 38.2% of NW total

TODAY 5584 (up 133 on day - NW was down 298 on day so not so good in GM V 3539 last week) 39.9%of NW Total


Greater Manchester on the whole did well last two days.

Christmas Day was kicked into orbit by a huge number in Stockport that came out of nowhere. And set all kinds of records. But the two days after it were 400 lower on both days in Stockport.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND NUMBERS

I added them into the UK totals above as they are still not on Gov UK but the BBC says they have been given them and they are:



CHRISTMAS DAY 8252 cases - was 5917 last week

BOXING DAY 11,030 cases - highest ever in Scotland - was 5924 last week

TODAY 10,562 cases - was 6734 last week

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES



MANCHESTER

DEC 25 - 1597 - up 393 on week

DEC 26 - 1056 - up 331 on week

DEC 27 - 999 - up 118 on week



STOCKPORT

DEC 25 - 1048 - up 618 on week

DEC 26 - 639 - up 289 on week

DEC 27 - 666 - up 240 on week





TRAFFORD

DEC 25 - 840 - up 378 on week

DEC 26 - 427 - up 114 on week

DEC 27 - 538 - up 188 on week


SALFORD


DEC 25 - 749 - up 301 on week

DEC 26 - 576 - up 210 on week

DEC 27 - 539 - up 172 on week


WIGAN



DEC 25 - 748 - up 418 on week

DEC 26 - 784 - up 505 on week

DEC 27 - 811 - up 487 on week



TAMESIDE


DEC 25 - 686 - up 419 on week

DEC 26 - 451 - up 217 on week

DEC 27 - 418 - up 144 on week


OLDHAM


DEC 25 - 549 - up 222 on week

DEC 26 - 329 - up 122 on week

DEC 27 - 287 - up 95 on week


BOLTON



DEC 25 - 496 - up 192 on week

DEC 26 - 521 - up 288 on week

DEC 27 - 571 - up 278 on week



ROCHDALE


DEC 25 - 415 - up 168 on week

DEC 26 - 329 - up 137 on week

DEC 27 - 407 - up 197 on week



BURY



DEC 25 - 412 - up 114 on week

DEC 26 - 391 - up 148 on week

DEC 27 - 348 - up 126 on week