COVID Data Thread

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

A number of people I know have given up testing because of the lack of availability. My son and his partner both are ending their quarantine periods both failed a pcr but have not been able to get an LFT. They haven't reported anything to the govt so unless their employers are doing so theres two unrecorded positives

But more tests have been done overall so although supply might be constrained in certain areas it is a fact that more testing is being carried out.

 

[Healdplace]

A number of people I know have given up testing because of the lack of availability. My son and his partner both are ending their quarantine periods both failed a pcr but have not been able to get an LFT. They haven't reported anything to the govt so unless their employers are doing so theres two unrecorded positives

Yes, but as I said above the POSITIVITY is falling. That equates cases to tests not just fewer cases as there are fewer tests - so, whilst it may be true that fewer tests WILL happen over coming weeks it is not the key reason why cases have fallen in past few days. If it was positivity would go up.

Particularly as I also posted above the Zoe App data is very closely tracking and predctng what will happen in the Gov UK numbers whilst clearly showing the cases gradually flattening not suddenly.

School testing in big numbers means there will now be more under 19 now testing positive. We are already seeing that. Look at the charts I post of the Northern Ireland data who are hot on giving strong testing numbers by demographic tellimg us a lot day to day.It might restrict those above that age. But it will even out as it did pre Christmas.

England are the only nation that do not give you postivity numbers as advised internationally and make it hard to calculate. No idea why but it helps create a misleading concept of what case numbers mean.

 

[blueparrot]

A number of people I know have given up testing because of the lack of availability. My son and his partner both are ending their quarantine periods both failed a pcr but have not been able to get an LFT. They haven't reported anything to the govt so unless their employers are doing so theres two unrecorded positives

If they did a PCR, they will be in the figures, getting LFT for retesting at home isn’t counted anyway. Or have you got them the wrong way round ?

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

26 deaths - was 8 last week - like England seeming to start to rise noticeably over past days

12,602 cases - was 17,065 last week - which looks good on the surface

25.1% positivty - 24.5% last week - and 21.7% yesterday (from 14,486 cases) - but positivity is high so ters might be down today.

1362 patients - was 1323 yesterday & 897 last week - so quite a steep rise of over 50% in week

48 ventilated icu - was 48 yesterday & 34 last week - rather higher increase here than in England.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND

Only very basic numbers until Monday as usual

There was no report last week to compare as it was bank holoday so zero was recorded.

So I compare with yesterday:

5 deaths - was 0 yesterday

3458 cases - was 6444 yesterday


These low numbers may well be the start of the testing issue discussed above.

CASES FALL ON SATURDAY ANYWAY AS WALES NEVER REPORTS ON THIS DAY - POSTING FRIDAYS NUMBERS TOMORROW AND BOTH TODAY & TOMORROW ON MONDAY.

GIVEN THIS AND THE LOWISH NUMBERS TODAY FROM SCOTLAND AND NI IF ENGLAND SHOWS THE START OF THE IMPACT OF PEOPLE NOT TESTING REPORTED BY THE POSTER ABOVE THERE COULD BE A SEEMIMGLy TOO LOW TOTAL TODAY. AS WE DO NOT GET ENGLAND TEST NUMBERS UNTIL MONDAY (GOV UK DO NOT UPDATE THEM AT WEEKEND) WE WILL NOT KNOW UNTIL THEN HW MUCH THAT IS A FACTOR

 

[Healdplace]

POSTED IN THE OTHER THREAD TOO BUT WORTH DUPLICATING AS WE CAN DEBATE HOW REAL THIS IS BUT IS ANOTHER FALL - TEST CREATED OR NOT.


313 UK deaths - was 162 last week

282 in England v 154 last week.

The England death numbers have been rising in the past few days. Some will be lag from the unusually long holiday- but most seems a real rise.

146,390 cases - but no Wales on Saturday so this is not entirely the fall it seems.

But with no Wales it was 179,637 last Saturday - so down 33,247


England only cases today 130,330 today - 19,075 fewer than yesterday & 32,242 on last Saturday

No testing data reported over the weekend but you have to suspect these will be reduced as often at weekend and so part of the reason - but if not it is a signifcant fall. It was still 1.8 million yesterday - but that was down from over 2 million on the previous 2 days.

Scotland was down 17,065 to 12,602 week to week and N Ireland posted 3458 - half yesterday but V nothing last Saturday.

So the numbers are UK wide whatever is causing the drop.

 

[bluethrunthru]

If they did a PCR, they will be in the figures, getting LFT for retesting at home isn’t counted anyway. Or have you got them the wrong way round ?

wrong way round probably lol - it just concerns me and makes me wonder how many people are doing the same or just not testing and putting the milder disease down as a winter cold and wandering about shedding the virus.

 

[blueparrot]

wrong way round probably lol - it just concerns me and makes me wonder how many people are doing the same or just not testing and putting the milder disease down as a winter cold and wandering about shedding the virus.

I’m sure theres a few, my daughter tests every day for work and has just tested positive, no symptoms , in fact she’d been out for a run and said it was one of her best. So if her job didn’t require testing she’d now be out spreading it. So it will spread whatever we do.
People who know they have it though can do a home test and probably don’t need a PCR to tell them they need to isolate. So unless you have symptoms making you ill it’s best to leave those tests to those that need them, so we don’t run out.

 

[Healdplace]

Absolutely the cases we know about are the tip of the iceberg. Always have been a vast under estimate in the 'numbers; likely even more so given how mild this seems to be thankfully and how it is now something people will ignore either just assuming it is a winter cold or so as to not lose work so soon after Christmas.

Hence making a judgment on the percentage who go into hospital is hard. We know it will be low. But not how low as we can only use the cases we know about to estimate and guess about how many we do not know. Which is quite possibly hgher than ever.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everywhere down. North West still in third behind the two big southern regions



LONDON top on 20,853 - down from 21,558 V 27,608 last week & 25,378 2 wks ago

SOUTH EAST on 18,957 - down from 22,637 V 23,108 last week & 17,051 2 wks ago


NORTH WEST on 18,346 - down from 21,015 V 27,328 last week & 16,548 2 wks ago


WEST MIDLANDS on 13,367 - down from 16,384 V 16,221 last week & 9784 2 wks ago

EAST on 12,811 - down from 14,739 V 16,168 last week & 13,241 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 12,003 - down from 15,711 V 14,373 last week & 11,379 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 10,404 - down from 11,644 V 12,994 last week & 8657 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 9259 - down from 11.054 V 12,367 last week & 7524 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 7207 - down from 10,162 V 10,935 last week & 3356 2 wks ago