COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

As noted they are the first fall in a while but also the testing numbers are down about 10%.

I suspect testng numbers will be down a lot soon when no longer free.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital numbers:-

Second day running admissions (Wednesday) over 2000 - on 2137. NW with the biggest weeky jump - 275 to 354

Close to the highest numbers we had in the first Omicron wave. Which was 2370 on 29 December.

Total patients up 240 to 13,842 - the 21st straight daily rise. Highest since 26 January.

Last Friday they were up 249 to 11,595 - weekly rise of 2247 - this has flatenned off.

The North West easuily had the worst day today - up 95 to 2027 V last Friday when it was up 46 to 1625

So a 25% patient rise in the region week to week.

East up 48 to 1633, London DOWN 2 to 2110, Midlands up 11 to 2421, NE & Yorkshire up 13 to 2152, South East up 22 to 2004 and South West up 53 to 1495.

Ventilators were up 4 to 290 V 240 last Friday. Highest since 21 February.

Biggest riser was in the East - up 9 to 38. Most others were level or fell slightly.

North West down 1 to 28.

 

[Healdplace]

AS for cases:

South East the only region in 5 figures - 11,653 V 13,619 last Friday

London, East and South West all above the North West but all down on last Friday under 10K

North West on 7562 V 7930 last Friday - the smallest weekly fall.

Of that regional daily fall (1266 from 8828 yesterday) the Greater Manchester drop was much lower than the western part of the region.

GM down just 152 on yesterday of that 1266 - far below expectations.

GM is on 2367 cases of that 7562. Though at 31.3% that is still below expectation for the region as the western areas around Merseyside have been high and are falling from that high point.

Week to week the fall in GM is also just 31 of the NW fall of 368 - as you see again way below expectations.

In todays cases:-

Manchester top scores on 446 V 476 last week.

Others in order:- Stockport 338 V 321, Trafford 270 V 289, Wigan 255 V 274, Salford 238 V 251, Tameside 215 V 184, Bolton 175 V 165, Oldham 150 V 145, Rochdale 146 V 130 & Bury 134 V 163

 

[Healdplace]

Usual Monday summary of UK cases today V last week:- (Wales is just from Friday)

N IRELAND 1204 cases V 2007 (N I was the lowest cases on last week's ONS survey too - seems as if they might be the first to peak)

Deaths 4 V 2 last week Care Home Outbreaks 165 V 153 last week (The Over 80 case numbers are flatenning off but have been high for a while now)

Patients 481 V 484 last week Ventilated 4 V 2 last week

Weekly cases 13,025 V 13,754 last week



SCOTLAND 7479 cases V 9553 last week - this is levelling off too in recent days

Deaths 0 V 0 (usually zero due to Sunday no reporting)

2360 patients (up 34 over the weekend - new highest ever) V 2128 last week. This is slowing too

Ventilated 21 V 31 last week - this has fallen from 28 since Friday)


WALES 2206 cases V 2566 last week - all three nations down week to week as you see

Deaths 27 V 4 last week - big jump up here. Legacy of weeks of hgh cases.

988 patients latest reprt (Friday) V 872 last week

14 ventilated V 14 last week


ENGLAND hospital deaths over the three days SAT/SUN/MON 148 V 141 last week North West 17 V 13

22 March is on 113 deaths after 5 days - highest at that point since the first Omicron wave.



So cases now starting to fall - though the ending of free testing and the opening up of society will be part of why.

But deaths are the last one to fall andmay rise a bit for the next week or twp. But ventilator numbers to patient ratio is still very low. Meaning these cases are nothing like as deadly as in past waves still.

Just 39 outside of England and 290 in England = 329 UK (at latest count)

From 17, 671 patients in UK.

Here are the dates from the January 2022 wave when patients were last the same and the ventilators then were:-

21 JAN (coming out of the wave) 640 & 5 JAN (Going into the wave) 875

And the January 2021 wave at the dawn of any vaccines:

19 FEB (coming out of the wave) 2469 & 14 DEC 2020 (Going into the wave) 1288



As you can see - waning and needing another booster or not the vaccines plus the less deadly nature of Omicron due to all the other factors (such as immunity from catching it) has seen a steady reduction of the percetage of patients on ventilator and so the most sick

326 today from 2469 in the winter 2021/22 wave - a massive difference.

 

[Healdplace]

215,001 UK Cases V 226,524 last Monday - covers Sat, Sun & Mon - so about 70K a day. The first Monday week to week fall since Omicron 2

England only:- 183,459 V 188, 925 last week - so only a very small fall.

Testing 617 K V 628 K last Monday. So little difference really.

All in all looks as Zoe is predicting we are now close to this wave flatenning off. Preducted cases there rose for about the 20th day in the run but by the smallest amount - from 351,613 to 352,510 - the increase has been lower now every day for a week.

Ongoing symptomatic cases are 4,204,375 - up 104,839 on yesterday - this rise too is decreasing daily but looks a week or so away from a peak.

Both those Zoe numbers are new record highs across the pandemic.

UK Deaths 217 V 169 last week

England only 143 V 127 last week

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data over the weekend.

Admissions (Thursday - Friday - Saturday) 2006 - 1925 - 1869 V 1738 - 1629 - 1813 last week Hint of levelling

Midlands the biggest numbers 391 - 334 - 327 V 286 - 311 - 327

North West 275 - 287 - 290 V 249 - 253 - 251


Patients (Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Today)

13,842 - 13,796 - 14,465 - 15,170

V last week `11,595 - 11,638 -12,070 - 12,753

So a weekend rise of 1328 V 1158 last weekend

AND a week to week rise of 2417 V the previous week's rise of 2178

So fairly flat numbers not big rises

Weekend rises

East up 50 to 1683, London up 156 to 2266, Midlands up 295 to 2716, NE & Yorkshire up 300 to 2452, South East up 193 to 2197 , South West up 149 to 1644

North West is up by 185 from 2027 to 2212 V 1761 last Monday - a rise of 451.

Both Midlands and NE & Yorkshire added over 500 patients in the past week.



Ventilators (Friday - Saturday - Sunday -Today) - Now rising too quite notably.

290 - 304 - 303 - 319

V last week 240 - 231 - 237 - 252

Weekend rises

East up 3 to 41, London down 4 to 103, Midlands up 17 to 45 , NE & Yorkshire down 2 to 37, South East up 3 to 32 , South West up 8 to 28

North West is up by 5 from 28 to 33 it was 23 last Monday.

 

[Healdplace]

No big update today - but here is the Zoe graph showing the upward curve easing as it has been starting to do. Now visibly so.

The daily increase in ongoing cases today was under 100K for the first time in two or three weeks. Total 4,297,005 is still a new record aross the pandemic.

Predicted new cases are down too for the first time in two or three weeks after a week of lower rises day to day.

Today on 350,661 cases - from 352,510 yesterday.

North West has risen to fourth largest region today (behind only South West, London & West MIdlands) but with a very small rise today after days of slowing increases.

Others are falling now - including the three regions above it - and things may already have peaked in most regions.

We do seem quite confidently to be closing on the peak of this second Omicron variant.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases 80,830 - down from 94,524 last week. England only 64,935 V 74,804 last week.

303 UK deaths - was 250 last week. England only 251 V 200. These are rising still as my big report showed yesterday.

Tuesday recall is the biggest total of the week as it has catvch up from the weekend low registration of deaths not reported from yesterday.

Testing 710K V 617K yesterday & 770 K last Monday


Most big falls in the southern regions

North West 8029 cases V 8594 last Tuesday

Greater Manchester 2654 V 2676 last Tuesday - Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Salford & Wigan up week to week. None by a big number. Rochdale the most 136 to 158.

The other 5 down - none by much other than Trafford - down 50 to 269.

 

[kaz7]

Overall, 194,868 deaths have now occurred in the UK where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate, the ONS added.

Around nine in 10 deaths with COVID on the death certificate since the start of the pandemic have coronavirus as the primary cause of death, with only a minority listing the virus as a contributory factor.

COVID-19: Deaths involving coronavirus rise for sixth successive week in England and Wales, ONS says

The latest figures would likely have been higher as they were affected by Good Friday on 15 April and bank holiday Monday on 18 April, when very few deaths were registered - and the rise follows the recent surge in infections driven by the Omicron BA.2 variant.

news.sky.com

 

[Healdplace]

This data is from Scotland and thought was worth posting as this thread was revived,

It shows that despite the Omicron wave in Dec/Jan the numbers entering hospital because of Covid and the length of stay in hospital for those who did kept on falling from a peak in early autumn.

It seems reasonable to suppose that the booster jabs were a key factor in this happening as well as the inbuilt immunity of the community and the milder nature of the latest strains.






More recent data is continuing this pattern though not yet fully documented.

New cases here in latest week fell by 37%.

12.8% of these were reinfections.

Hospital admissions have fallen 55% over the past month. Patients in hospital are down from 2110 to 1245 over those same four weeks.

28.2% of patients of latest admissions have been over 80, With 10.9% aged 75 - 79. Others ages all lower.

Btw England hospital patients today fell again by 293 to 8950. Down 2015 over the past week.

This is the fifteenth straight fall in England Covid patients from a then peak two weeks ago of 14,607.

So numbers really are falling not just a consequence of lower testing.